Progressives (Liberals)

@Lash,

Well, since it seems you accept Fox as a news source (or something), what do you make of their latest poll numbers?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-up-by-double-digits-in-democratic-race

Quote:

Among Democratic primary voters, Biden’s 35 percent (up from 31 percent in March) leaves Bernie Sanders in a distant second place with 17 percent (down from 23 percent).

Elizabeth Warren is next at 9 percent, Pete Buttigieg receives 6 percent, followed by Kamala Harris at 5 percent, Beto O’Rourke at 4 percent, Cory Booker at 3 percent, and Julian Castro and Amy Klobuchar at 2 percent apiece. John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, Tim Ryan, Marianne Williamson, and Andrew Yang each garner one percent.

Since March, Warren and Buttigieg gained five percentage points and Biden is up four, while Sanders dropped six points, O’Rourke four and Harris three.

About half of Democratic primary voters (49 percent) are paying “a lot” of attention to the candidates, and Biden performs even better in the ballot test among this tuned-in group: 41 percent back him, 17 percent Sanders, 10 percent Warren, and 7 percent Buttigieg.

The highest priority of Democratic primary voters is defeating Donald Trump, as 73 percent feel that is “extremely” important. Next, 71 percent say it’s extremely important their nominee has high ethical standards.

Roughly half want a candidate who shares their views on major issues (51 percent), has new ideas (47 percent), and has a record of accomplishments as a political leader (47 percent). Fewer prioritize someone who is likeable (39 percent), will shake up Washington (38 percent), and represents a new generation (37 percent).

For each trait, Biden leads among those primary voters who say it is extremely important.

Biden also performs best in hypothetical 2020 matchups. Among all registered voters, he leads Trump by 11 points (49-38 percent), up from a 7-point advantage in March. Biden’s is the only lead outside the margin of sampling error in the matchups tested -- and he is the only Democrat to push Trump’s support below 41 percent.

Sanders tops Trump by 5 points (46-41 percent) and Warren is up by two (43-41 percent), while Harris ties Trump (41-41 percent) and Buttigieg trails him by one (40-41 percent).

The president’s reelect number holds steady at 38 percent, while 54 percent would back someone else if the 2020 presidential election were today. In December, it was 38-55 percent.

Trump’s 16-point reelect deficit is far larger than the 5-point gap former President Barack Obama had around this same point in the election cycle. For Obama, it was 44 percent reelect vs. 49 percent someone else in June 2011.

Overall, 28 percent of voters would “definitely” reelect Trump, while 46 percent would “definitely” vote for someone else.

The first primary elections are about nine months away and the 2020 general election is 18 months off, yet interest in next year’s election is already remarkably high. Nearly 6-in-10 voters, 57 percent, are extremely interested.

That’s even higher than the 54 percent who felt that way the week before the 2016 presidential election. In July 2015, a similar point in the electoral cycle, 31 percent were “extremely” interested.

Sixty-four percent of Clinton voters and 59 percent of Trump voters are “extremely” interested.

Conducted May 11-14, 2019 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,008 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide who spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters, and 4.5 points for Democratic primary voters (469).

(graphs and links at the source above)

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@Lash,

Quote:

The establishment democrats fear Sanders and the people who are dedicated to getting him elected — so much so that they’re risking a loss to Trump by fighting the progressive wing of the party.

Or the progressive Democrats fear Biden (Harris, Klobuchar, Booker, etc) and their supporters so much that they're risking a loss to Trump by fighting the moderates.

Quote:

Why would democrats vote for a guy who weakened a woman’s right to choose what happens to her body instead of a man who has championed it for 50 years?

Maybe they believe he's less likely to win and would rather see an imperfect Democrat in power than see a champion for progressive causes go down in defeat. If a Democrat wins — any Democrat — it will be better for the progressives in Congress who will be assuming leadership of committees. Got to look at the bigger picture and not the personality of the chief executive.

Of course there's always Howard Schultz.

1 Reply

@MontereyJack,

I don't think Russian meddling itself ever was the real focus of the Mueller Investigation at all. Instead their focus was on a Trump connection with rather obvious and widespread Russian meddling (chiefly on their media channel and on various internet hoaxes and hacking efforts) , which they never found. There was a wealth of other evidence of Russian disinformation and hacking involving Clinton which they didn't pursue at all.

On what basis do you proclaim that Trump is "a known Putin fan"? That is merely a popular fiction invented by the left wing media to foster their now discredited clams of Trump collusion with them. Without them you have no evidence at all. Instead I believe Trump (like many other Western strategic thinkers) advocates a long range development of better relations between Russia and the West to balance the challenges China increasingly presents to both - as I outlined in another post . In the short term Trump has exhibited a ready willingness to use sanctions and our growing petroleum exports to limit Putin's self-aggrandizing misbehavior - much more so than have the European powers which also seek long term rapprochement with Russia for the same reason as Trump. Russia has rich resources and a fairly large population, but it's economy is very small compared to ours (or Germany's) and it is no longer able to pose an enduring serious threat to us ( nuclear missiles to be sure, but they know that will be met with overwhelming retaliation). Putin's forays in the Middle East (largely to protect his old ally Assad) have been only marginally effective, and present no real threat to us.

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@Olivier5,

Olivier5 wrote:

Hmmm... I think the US people needs some reassurance that its democracy still works, and the only way they'll get it is by voting the Russian agent out.

I believe our democracy functions quite well and don't know of any models in Europe, France included, that do as well or better. ( I read that Macron is closing his old alma mater, the ENA, in an apparently desperate move to placate the unruly rural plebians.)

Do you consider Angela Merkel (or former German chancellor Schroeder ) to be Russian agents? Both have been far more accommodating to Putin's Russia than has Trump.

1 Reply

@georgeob1,

Don't be so credulous. Your 'president' was only 'elected' because of a strong push from Moscow, and he only pretends to be independent from Putin.

The only way for you guys to break free is to vote the Russian agent out of the white house.

1 Reply

@Olivier5,

You are projecting your own credulity. There were many fairly measurable factors in Trump's election, but Russian meddling wasn't one. Apart from some typical media and internet actions to foster public discord, which Russia has been doing for decades there is little there to note.

As I indicated separately, Trump (and other Western leaders) are interested in a long term accommodation with Russia to balance Chinese aspirations, and to a large extent looking past Putin. In the short term Trump has been far more willing to push back on Putin's mischief than any of the European leaders and the responses to our sanctions amply demonstrates that fact.

Macron and his leash holder Merkel have been particularly accommodating to Putin, something that you apparently failed to consider.

1 Reply

@georgeob1,

In our discussions, you always resort to some anti-European rant or another, as if the whole point was a competition between two continents. This says much more about you than about the world out there. You see those exchanges as a competition, as befitting tit-for-tat arguments. "You're another" - stuff toddlers say.

Russian meddling was evidently a fact, and a strong factor in the last US presidential election. I realize it is a difficult fact to accept, re. national pride and all that, but it's a fact.

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@Olivier5,

Its amazing what a difference 50 years will make in a party. The republicans would have crucified Trump for just the hint that he is colluding with the commies. Now the deny it even with proof. Winning is the most important thing even over national security. Read Georges stuff. He is a typical ultra conservative

1 Reply

@Olivier5,

I suppose I could respond saying that you are oddly oblivious to worse versions of the behavior, for which you so energetically criticize Trump, on the part of European leaders. In my view that's the central point.

I'll also add that, in my view, the alignment of Western Europe with the United States is largely a fading relic of the Cold War, which only temporarily altered long-standing European views. I believe we still have important common strategic interests in common. However the European preoccupation with the creation of a bureaucratic and somewhat totalitarian trans national mega state, which is very alien to American values, makes that hard to do. History however is not over, and increasingly it appears that old nationalisms are reemerging within the EU.

Efforts to reform humanity are not new in history, but so far they have all ended badly.

I have some strong opinions, but contrary to your view, I don't see this as some childish competition.
Competition is a fact of human life and the trajectories of nations.

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@RABEL222,

Perhaps you forget that Communism in Russia ended almost thirty years ago. Their government remains authoritarian, but it is far more of a criminal, fascist character than Communist.

A two plus year investigation led by officials obviously opposed to Trump failed to find any evidence to support your view. Despite that you persist: closed minds are like that.

I will confess that, by today's standards for millennial snowflakes I am a bit competitive. Life was like that in Naval Aviation particularly, and the Navy in general, and also in the business enterprises I followed later. Do you have a better idea?

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@georgeob1,

If you want to have a discussion about the EU, or other efforts to "reform humanity" if that's what the EU is... I'm game, but not in this thread. The only parallel I can see with the US politics that's relevant to our present conversation is that Putin is trying to influence Western European elections as well: it's a proven fact in French and German elections, and in the Brexit referendum as well if memory serves. And I have posted articles about that on a2k so you can't say I'm only pointing at the US.

1 Reply

@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

Perhaps you forget that Communism in Russia ended almost thirty years ago.

Not really: the CPRF (Communist Party of the Russian Federation) is still quote (from 18% in the Russian parliament to up to 40% in a few regional/local parliaments).
Three heads of the (88) federal subjects of the Russian Federation ("governors") are members of the Communist Party.

1 Reply

@Walter Hinteler,

To my knowledge farming communes, government operated businesses (apart from criminal connections to Putin), and the widespread imprisonment of dissenters (except for a few insubordinate oligarchs) are no longer salient facts of Russian life.

1 Reply

@Olivier5,

I'm not as categorical and obedient to thread titles as are apparently you.
Do you believe that President Macron was elected by Putin? How about Chancellor Merkel? She has certainly been very accommodating to Putin.

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@georgeob1,

I don't have personal knowledge, just hear-say from Russians and Russian-born Germans - and what they say varies a lot, depending on various factors, too.

However, I think that your knowledge is correct.

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

I'll also add that, in my view, the alignment of Western Europe with the United States is largely a fading relic of the Cold War, which only temporarily altered long-standing European views. I believe we still have important common strategic interests in common. However the European preoccupation with the creation of a bureaucratic and somewhat totalitarian trans national mega state, which is very alien to American values, makes that hard to do.

Well, American values differ from European ones, don't they? And increasingly so, with Trump. So you have one radical factor of divergence right there. But then, people always focus on their differences, while our similarities are often overlooked.

You like veteran stories it seems. Let me tell you one:

When I was 20-something, in the late 80s-early 90s, I had the priviledge of spending a lot of time is a place called Nuristan. Look it up, it's a cool place without many tourists, in the North-east of Afghanistan. Back then it was a stronghold of the resistance against the Soviet invasion of the country. These mudjahedin folks with long beard and kalashnikovs were bodies, colleagues, guards, and fellow travelers. I was living and working among them, talking to them a lot. At night, drinking green tea after dinner, they would never fail to catch the BBC world service in Persian and Pashtoo, and then comment upon the daily news pretty much as we do here.

One night in 1989, the voice on the radio announced the fall of the Berlin wall. My guys were all excited. To them, the Afghan resistance had played a key role in proving to the world that the USSR was a paper tiger. They felt very happy and proud. I was happy too of course, though I had no reason to share their pride, and remained skeptical about their role in the unfolding collapse of the Soviet Union.

Then, this sly guy asked me a question: "Now that the cold war is over, what do you think will be the next global confrontation that will define this new era?"

I knew exactly where he was going. The Islamist ideology (and they were all Islamists, ond shade or the other) presupposes that Islam's vocation is to conquer the world. This was seen as a first step in the right direction but only a first step.

I played along. With a smile I said: "Well, maybe the US against Europe?"

He laughed... "Of course not! Europeans and Americans are the same people: same race, same history, same religion, same political and economic system.... No no no. The next big fight is evidently between Islam and the West!"

That was 12 years before 9/11.

I answered: "If that's the case, you guys will lose. Because the West is a little stronger and persistant than the USSR." He laughed it off again.

The point of the story is: our enemies see us as identical. And that includes China and Russia. We're in the same boat whether we like it or not.

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@hightor,

hightor wrote:

Quote:
The establishment democrats fear Sanders and the people who are dedicated to getting him elected — so much so that they’re risking a loss to Trump by fighting the progressive wing of the party.

Or the progressive Democrats fear Biden (Harris, Klobuchar, Booker, etc) and their supporters so much that they're risking a loss to Trump by fighting the moderates.

Progressives aren’t afraid of Biden; they’re just sick and tired of Republicans masquerading as Democrats.

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@Olivier5,

I just returned from a convivial men's club luncheon at a restaurant on Fisherman's Wharf in San Francisco. Today, however it was a bit repetitious and that took some of the usual glow out of it.

Thank you for a refreshing, welcome, informative and thought-provoking post. It was a good rebound for me.

I found your story about your experiences in Nuristan fascinating. What took you there?

I agree with you that differences among allies can appear greater than the relative huge gaps which often exist between them and their common enemies. However, despite their relative size they can be decisive in the outcome of the main contest.

I also agree about the threat from an Islam, emerging into the modern world after centuries of stagnation, and with intact visions of Jihad and living memories of fairly recent colonialism and in some cases exploitation by Western powers..

A related issue, certainly in the United States, and in my perception also in Europe, but to a lesser degree, is the ongoing conflict between those advocating the perfection of the world order through the action of international organizations limiting the behavior of unruly nations and at the same time the perfection of society through the authoritarian but egalitarian rule of a self-appointed elite. Both are futile in my view and both come at the expense of human freedom.

Trump is vulgar, self-promoting and transparently egotistical. However he is gifted with an acute understanding of the above issue and willing to act on it. For me what leaders do or don't do counts for far more than what they say.

I still don't understand your strange belief that Trump was elected by Putin. (Were Merkel and Macron also elected by Putin? - both have been very accommodating to him - certainly far more so than has been Trump.

The fact is that Trump's actions in office have, from the start been far more harmful to Putin's interests than those of European leaders, and ,more to the point, those of the relatively supine and feckless Obama, and what could be expected from Clinton ( a few paid speeches for husband Bill, a few million in the Foundation would surely yield as many "reset buttons" as might be required).

Trump in contrast has expanded our oil and gas production causing a lowered world price for both, impacting Putin's prime source of income, and quickly applied fairly effective economic sanctions for Putin's misbehavior, while at the same time trying (in the face of intense, misguided criticism) for a longer term rapprochement with China and Islam in mind.

I believe the Western Powers must deal effectively with these issues before they take on the emerging threats or competition from Islam and China. If they don't do the first they will fail in the second.

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@georgeob1,

georgeob1 wrote:

(Were Merkel and Macron also elected by Putin? - both have been very accommodating to him - certainly far more so than has been Trump.

Austria's current Vice-Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache promised a supposed investor from Russia public contracts on secretly recorded videos from 2017 - if she would help the right-wing populist FPÖ to win the elections.

Merkel isn't actually known as a close friend of the Russians nor is her party. (The German chancellor is elected by the parliament, not by public vote.)

Germany's far-right populist AfD (the third-biggest party in Germany) consistently performs well (best) in the Russian-speaking communities here, and one of the reasons is Russian propaganda.

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@georgeob1,

I have forgotten nothing. Neither do i reinvent history to make a point like you do all the time. You are a slightly more intelligent Ollie.

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