hightor
 
  5  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 02:53 pm
@edgarblythe,
Quote:
Nader and Sanders did not elect Bush and Trump.

Right. The people who voted for them did. (Sanders voters who didn't back HRC)
Quote:
When Democrats learn to take responsibility for their own mistakes they might learn enough to start fixing their problems.

There were, and are, Democrats within the party who very much want to fix these problems which concern you. Progressive independents and disaffected Democrats do a disservice to potential reform when they vote for third party candidates in close elections with full awareness of the consequences. Look at it this way: people like Ocasio-Cortez are going to be much more effective under Democratic administrations. Liberal Democrats will have more visibility and gain more stature. Well-organized progressives in Congress can help a cautious chief executive move more quickly to address and solve structural problems in the party. The best way to reform the party is help to make it responsive and legislatively successful. It's difficult to see how helping to elect a Republican does that.



oralloy
 
  -2  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 03:03 pm
@Olivier5,
Olivier5 wrote:
I suspect Trump has not enough judges stacked in the right places quite yet.

Why does there need to be stacking? I am talking about the government legitimately proving actual crimes. I am not suggesting that anyone should be punished for a crime that they didn't do.

I know that leftists like to punish innocent people. But I won't stoop to their level.


Olivier5 wrote:
For the plan to work, he also needs to take control of the intelligence agencies and the FBI. I have no clear idea how easy or hard that may be,

I'm unsure why intelligence agencies need to be involved. I'm talking about criminal investigations here. What we need are the FBI and the IRS.

But the answer is: very easy. As President he has absolute control over the executive branch.

The Senate gets to confirm or deny appointments of course. But Congress doesn't have any say over the orders that the President gives after someone is confirmed. And they don't have any say over his ability to fire executive branch officials, which he can do for any reason, or even for no reason.


Olivier5 wrote:
but my sense is there's some internal resistance.

Fire the resisters.
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 03:17 pm
@edgarblythe,
I can’t tell if you’re for/in favor of the candidates honestly declaring their plans or if you’re opposed to it.

You may remember progressive people being frustrated at Clinton’s comment about candidates needing a public vs private policy/agenda.

nimh
 
  3  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 03:43 pm
@snood,
snood wrote:
Olivier5 wrote:
Let’s not forget that Bernie himself supported Hillary against Trump.

Yes, it was support. Half hearted and late, but still support.

I mean, he campaigned for Hillary at 39 rallies in 13 states in just a day over two months. Don't think that qualifies as "half hearted".
Lash
 
  0  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 04:01 pm
@Olivier5,
Heh. I understood that he didn’t want to be a spoiler. He did what was right for him.
Lash
 
  0  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 04:06 pm
@nimh,
Sea change: happening now in America!!

Loving it.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 04:52 pm
@maporsche,
maporsche wrote:

I can’t tell if you’re for/in favor of the candidates honestly declaring their plans or if you’re opposed to it.

You may remember progressive people being frustrated at Clinton’s comment about candidates needing a public vs private policy/agenda.



If the opposition is not using that option and you openly state that you intend to use it, it makes it more likely they will use it while they still can.
nimh
 
  3  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 05:01 pm
@hightor,
hightor wrote:
Right. The people who voted for them did. (Sanders voters who didn't back HRC)


Not to go too deep down the rabbit hole (OK, too late), but it might be worth pointing out here that the % of Bernie primary voters in 2016 that defected to Trump in the general election was actually smaller than the % of Hillary primary voters in 2008 that went on to vote for McCain over Obama.

A massive 2017 Cooperative Congressional Election Study suggested that 12% of Bernie primary voters switched to Trump in the general election. A 2016 VOTER Survey also found that 12% of Bernie primary voters went Trump in the general. According to a RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey (same link), it was just 6%.

Conversely, according to 2010 research in Public Opinion Quarterly, no less than 25% of Clinton primary voters in the 2008 election ended up voting for McCain over Obama in the general. According to the 2008 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project, it was 24% -- still twice as big a share as that of Bernie->Trump defections. And according to the 2008 exit polls, it was 15%.

(Also, depending on which of the above-mentioned research you prefer, 32-34% of Kasich primary voters and 10-11% of Rubio 2016 primary voters switched parties in the general to vote for Clinton, underscoring that the number of Bernie->Trump voters was generally unremarkable for a losing primary campaign).

All of this is just about D->R switchers, whose defection 'counts double' after all (a vote less for the Dems, a vote more for the GOP). Defections to third party candidates are a different question. Harry Enten passed on data from the American National Election Study (ANES) on Twitter which did cover this ground, as well as Dem->GOP defections. According to those, 11% of Bernie primary voters went for Trump in the general and 12% for third party candidates (4.5% Stein, 4% Johnson, 3.5% "other"). Which left 77% to vote for Hillary.

Compare Hillary's primary voters in 2008, according to ANES: 16% voted for McCain in the general election over Obama, 5% voted "Other", leaving 79.5% to vote for Obama. So if that's right, the overall balance was practically identical.

Defections to abstention is yet another question again, not covered the articles linked above (I didn't dig into the primary sources). But I suppose there's little reason to think the patterns there drastically differ from the patterns when it comes to party defections.. In any case, political scientist Brian Schaffner told Vox, "it’s worth noting that very few of the primary voters stayed home." They're among the most politically engaged Americans, after all.

A broader perspective on that count is that the number of principled lefties you might intuitively think of when you hear "Bernie or Bust" is probably relatively marginal compared to the numbers of largely small-town, white, ancestrally Democratic but culturally moderate/conservative voters who flocked to Clinton as the "not-Obama" candidate in the 2008 primaries and to Bernie as "not-Clinton" candidate in 2016.

Bottom line: Bernie's primary voters do not seem to have defected from the Democratic camp in the general election in any particularly remarkable way. To belabor the obvious, like Nader's voters they are only singled out for resentment because the race ended up being extremely close. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama achieved a significant enough advantage over their Republican candidate in the electorate overall that it didn't matter if some usual minority of losing Dem primary voters switched sides. Like Al Gore, Hillary Clinton did not, so it suddenly mattered. But then in any election that hinges on very small margins, you can by definition identify an endless number of slices of the electorate that could've made the decisive difference if they (hadn't) switched or voted. Which one you pick to blame probably mostly reflects your priors.
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 05:17 pm
@edgarblythe,
edgarblythe wrote:

maporsche wrote:

I can’t tell if you’re for/in favor of the candidates honestly declaring their plans or if you’re opposed to it.

You may remember progressive people being frustrated at Clinton’s comment about candidates needing a public vs private policy/agenda.



If the opposition is not using that option and you openly state that you intend to use it, it makes it more likely they will use it while they still can.


Removing the filibuster has been something that has been talked about ever since the first use of the filibuster. McConnell knows this is an option and he's threatened it before. You know that if it was in McConnell's interests he would do it right? No matter what Democrats say or don't say. Warren didn't let any secrets spill out of the bag.

Additionally, with a Democratic controlled House of Representatives, the benefits of McConnell removing the filibuster now, are pretty small.
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 05:18 pm
@nimh,
12% voted for Trump.
And 10% voted for Stein.
And 3% didn't vote.
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 05:47 pm
@maporsche,
It's been called the nuclear option because one side or other would be loathe to use it for fear of retaliation. That hasn't worked. It was used in 2013, and it was used in 2017 (the point of order to end "debate" [filibuster] by a simple majority). It ain't as nuclear as it has been made out to be. The Senate should just ****-can Rule XXII, and be honest about it.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  3  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 06:33 pm
@maporsche,
10% for Stein, what? Where did you get that from?

Somewhere between 6% and 12% voted for Trump, according to the four different sources I mentioned. Compare that to the 15%-25% of Hillary primary voters in 2008 who voted against Obama in the general back then. It's not a high number.
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 06:36 pm
Quote:
Can the Next Democratic Presidency Be Truly Transformative?

...But something else is required, something that both FDR and Reagan made a concerted and successful effort to accomplish. They not only moved policy, they delegitimized the other side's entire approach to governing.

Roosevelt, enabled by the crisis in which the country found itself when he was elected in 1932, not only enacted an ambitious agenda but ridiculed the conservative idea that a cautious, hands-off approach could serve the pressing needs of the country. Likewise, Reagan said, "Government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem," and laid the blame for every social ill at the feet of Democrats who were too generous toward minorities and the poor. They both understood that discrediting their opponents' approach to governing was essential to their own success.

Now ask yourself: Who among the current crop of presidential candidates looks likely to embark on a project that incorporates that idea as an essential goal?

There are a few candidates who certainly don't. It would be utterly foreign to Joe Biden, whose (soon-to-be) campaign is built on the idea that he can reach out to blue-collar white guys who like Donald Trump. Biden has no discernable policy ambitions, and it's hard to see what his presidency would accomplish apart from keeping a Republican from the White House for a while (which is not nothing, of course).

Other candidates like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julián Castro, or John Hickenlooper might have some good ideas of varying degrees of ambition, but haven't yet articulated anything resembling a sweeping ideological project. The only two who have are Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Sanders focuses on economic inequality, while Warren has a critique of the current system that focuses on both economics and politics; she has also assembled a broad and growing set of policy proposals meant to redistribute both wealth and power.

Both share a healthy contempt for the conservative governing philosophy. It isn't that many of the other candidates don't agree, but they haven't yet put that ideological distinction at the center of their rhetoric.

Whatever reluctance they might be feeling isn't surprising, since so much of our debate condemns undue "partisanship" and encourages politicians to at least claim they want to reach across the aisle and find common ground. But Democratic voters would do well to ask themselves: What will it be like eight years from now if this candidate becomes president. Will we just reset again with another Republican and fight the same fights in the same way? Or will the country and its politics be fundamentally altered?

It isn't easy to know the answer. But asking the question is a good place to start.
Waldman

This is very much as I see things too.
0 Replies
 
hightor
 
  3  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 06:36 pm
@nimh,
Quote:
Not to go too deep down the rabbit hole (OK, too late), but it might be worth pointing out here that the % of Bernie primary voters in 2016 that defected to Trump in the general election was actually smaller than the % of Hillary primary voters in 2008 that went on to vote for McCain over Obama

That's why I used the smallest typeface.
Quote:
To belabor the obvious, like Nader's voters they are [only] singled out for resentment because the race ended up being extremely close.

There were other dynamics involved in the '16 contest. Most obviously, Sanders was competing in primaries and running as a Democrat. The Nader effect in '00 was more significant and better represents the "spoiler" factor in first-past-the-post, plurality voting systems.
Quote:
But then in any election that hinges on very small margins, you can by definition identify an endless number of slices of the electorate that could've made the decisive difference if they (hadn't) switched or voted.

Absolutely.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 07:05 pm
@nimh,
https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-trump-2016-election-654320?fbclid=IwAR0JRL2U8ooZK7AuxdNMWozdflQMCUki77bp9gVPndHM9ZYyziV7vJWmelY

Could've been Stein or the Libertarian guy..or write in I suppose, but probably Stein.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DH7GmdyW0AEL6ny.png
nimh
 
  5  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 08:13 pm
@maporsche,
Ah, I see. So that's from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study I already mentioned in my post. Yeah, that one suggested 12% of Bernie primary voters switched to Trump in the general election. The other studies I mentioned put the number at 6%, 11% and 12%.

I hadn't noticed the "other candidate" and "did not vote" numbers from this study, though. Interesting. The "did not vote" number being so low fits with what I mentioned. Not a lot of Bernie voters who just stayed home.

The "other candidate" column looks more like 8-9% than 10% tbh, and that's a bit lower than what the ANES data had (12%). Don't assume it was all Stein: in the ANES data this group was pretty evenly divided between Stein, Johnson and "Other".

That's not so strange as it seems. Again, you may intuitively think of principled lefties when you see numbers about Bernie voters who refused to vote for Hillary in the general election, but that's likely wrong. Bernie got a lot of "Anyone-But-Hillary" votes in the primary as well, in places that aren't exactly famous for being hotbeds of socialist politics -- West-Virginia, Oklahoma, Montana, Indiana and such. Lot of the Bernie->Trump votes are probably from among those, so why not some Bernie->Gary Johnson ones too.

All adds up to pretty much the same picture as with the ANES data. Compared to Hillary's primary voters of 2008, fewer Bernie voters switched to the Republican side in the general election. More switched to a third-party candidate. The sum is very similar. Just standard behaviour, apparently.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 10:08 pm
Clinton was the architect of her own undoing. She was the worst possible Democrat with the worst possible strategy. She cheated, is a warmonger and her domestic ideas were wrong. She was abrasive, spent too much time with donor groups and too little out among the voters. Even at that, she stood to win, by most expectations. She had negative coat tails, meaning she repelled wins in congress. If she had been elected, she would have been walled in by Republicans. I'm not sorry she lost. Which is not to voice approval for any Republicans. Nobody really expected Trump to escape the checks and balances our government supposedly has, and that the entire Republican majority would help him operate outside the law and beyond any moral scope. That some of you need a scapegoat in Bernie is total bullshit.
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 10:24 pm
Sanders did everything above board in 2016 and still today. To besmirch him for what you blame some of his followers for is illogical. He told people to vote for Clinton. Beyond that, nobody owns a vote but the individual voter. The politicians own nothing inside the voting booth.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 10:43 pm
0 Replies
 
Real Music
 
  2  
Reply Mon 8 Apr, 2019 11:25 pm
@edgarblythe,
Quote:
Clinton was the architect of her own undoing.
Yes, there is some truth to this statement.

Quote:
She was the worst possible Democrat with the worst possible strategy.
Yes, in hindsight she probably ran a poor campaign.
But, I disagree with your assertion that she was the worst possible democrat.

Quote:
She cheated, is a warmonger and her domestic ideas were wrong.
I disagree with this assertion.
I am not aware of her cheating or violating any specific rule of the nominating process.
As far as I know, she had abided by and complied with the existing rules of the contest.

Quote:
I'm not sorry she lost.
I don't necessarily agree with her on everything, but I do agree with her on some things.
I have absolutely no doubt that the country would have been much better off if she had won.

Quote:
That some of you need a scapegoat in Bernie is total bullshit.
I actually like Bernie Sanders. I also like Hillary Clinton. I also like Joe Biden. I also like Barack Obama. I also like Elizabeth Warren. I also like John Lewis. I also like Alexandria Ocasio Cortez . I also like Elijah Cummings. I also like Nancy Pelosi. I also like Maxine Waters. These are just a few of the current and former elected officials who I genuinely feel are good people. These are not the only ones. These are just the ones I could think of off the top of my head.
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

Obama '08? - Discussion by sozobe
Let's get rid of the Electoral College - Discussion by Robert Gentel
McCain's VP: - Discussion by Cycloptichorn
Food Stamp Turkeys - Discussion by H2O MAN
The 2008 Democrat Convention - Discussion by Lash
McCain is blowing his election chances. - Discussion by McGentrix
Snowdon is a dummy - Discussion by cicerone imposter
TEA PARTY TO AMERICA: NOW WHAT?! - Discussion by farmerman
 
Copyright © 2024 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.1 seconds on 04/19/2024 at 10:37:30