11
   

2018 Fantasy Winter Olympics (new format)

 
 
tgordon92
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 11:28 am
@tgordon92,
Quote:
Also worth noting: the event has 13 competitors


Looks like I was wrong. I don't know what the list of 13 was that I found, but it wasn't for this event, which appears to have dozens of competitors. No start list has been posted for the women's event, but the men's event has 71 competitors.
0 Replies
 
tgordon92
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 11:38 am
@wheel158,
Quote:
I'm bummed that many Alpine skiers won't be participating in the mixed Alpine Team Event. Big names for AUT and USA aren't planning to compete in the event at all, which means we won't see all of the top racers. This is unfortunate, because that event is new and features a "head-to-head" format.


That is too bad, but it should be fun to watch despite the absence of top talent. One of my least favorite things about most Winter Olympics sports in the prevalence of racing against the clock rather than head-to-head competition. This should be a fun alternative. (Now if they could only figure out a way to do this for the sliding events!)

The bracket (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpine_skiing_at_the_2018_Winter_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Mixed_team#Bracket) is interesting for this event, from a Fantasy Olympics perspective. In the bottom half, it's SUI vs. everyone else. In the top half one semifinalist will almost certainly be AUT, SWE, or SLO (which is not good for me) and the other semifinalist could be GBR or OAR, or could be the irrelevant USA or NOR.
wheel158
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 01:26 pm
@markr,
Other than NOR, every "Optimal" country has either equaled or surpassed their cost. And NOR only needs a Silver medal to equal their initial cost...

This of course means other Olympic teams have underperformed Gracenote's expectations:

Code:
NOC Score Cost ROI
GER 92 119.00 -27.0 They could gain 9 points in 4-man Bobsled alone, and at least a Silver in
Hockey, but it won't be enough)
USA 67 85.00 -18.0 Figure Skating/Alpine expectations were higher, but they have several
competitors left)
FRA 43 76.00 -33.0 (They still have some Nordic competitors left, but it won't be enough)
SUI 37 45.00 -8.0 (They could equal their cost, with several competitors left across many
events)
AUT 37 43.00 -6.0 (They could equal their cost, depending on how things shake out)
JPN 33 38.00 -5.0 (Snowboarders might be their last hope)
CHN 25 38.00 -13.0 (I don't think they have enough competitors left...)
AUS 7 14.00 -7.0 (Snowboarders might help, but it likely won't be enough)
FIN 4 10.00 -6.0 (They could equal their cost -- they have several competitors left)
markr
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 02:28 pm
@wheel158,
Nobody picked France or China, which is good because they've been a couple of the bigger underachievers.

My approach to this was to omit the top countries (often don't live up to expectations - **** happens), pick the home country (often gets a boost), and then fill my team with countries that mostly were expected to get silver and bronze - figuring they had the potential to move up the podium. I avoided countries like FRA, CHN, CZE, AUS, POL, LAT, and ESP because their predicted medals were skewed toward gold. AUT and JPN didn't fit by the time I got around to considering them. So I was looking at the distribution of the medal numbers for each country and ignoring the country names. I don't follow most Olympic sports (and certainly none of the Winter sports), so my sole reference was the Gracenote numbers.

0 Replies
 
George
 
  3  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 06:53 pm
Wow, you guys have really thought this out! I just picked two each from North
America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia.
markr
 
  2  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 07:04 pm
@George,
That's an interesting approach!

It took me only about 10 minutes to make my choices. I did leave out one detail. I completed my roster with the 0.5 teams that had (roughly) the largest number of non-hockey athletes.
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 07:41 pm
@George,
My approach:

I considered that the experts would be soft to the USA (in order to make bigger expectations), so it was to be avoided. Then I chose the powerhouses, the home team, Italy (historically has had more medals than what the experts said), and minor sporting nations which I considered (mere hunch) would do better than expected.
Among the latter, the Aussies totally failed me.
And the powerhouse Germans were also a relative dissappointment.
0 Replies
 
wheel158
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 08:25 pm
@tgordon92,
GBR with a Bronze in Snowboard Big Air

+1 for you...
wheel158
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 09:09 pm
@wheel158,
And +1 for @markr too (for GBR)
markr
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 09:57 pm
@wheel158,
Alpine Team
SUI (markr)
AUT (wheel158)
NOR (tgordon92, wheel158)
wheel158
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 09:57 pm
@wheel158,
Team Alpine:

Gold: SUI (+5 for markr)
Silber: AUT (+3 for wheel158)
Bronze: NOR (+1 for tgordon92 and wheel158)
0 Replies
 
wheel158
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 09:58 pm
@markr,
Funny, we replied t the same time!
0 Replies
 
wheel158
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 10:03 pm
@wheel158,
Men's Snowboard Big Air (full results):
Gold: CAN (tgordon92, wheel158)
Silver: USA
Bronze: GBR (markr, tgordon92)
markr
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 10:15 pm
@wheel158,
I've also got CAN.
wheel158
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 10:31 pm
@markr,
Oops, my mistake. This is why auto-scoring is best Wink
0 Replies
 
wheel158
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 10:44 pm
@markr,
It's very close now:

Code:
1 tgordon92 353
2 markr 352
3 wheel158 349
4 wheel158* 347
5 George 326
5 Ticomaya 326
wheel158
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 11:08 pm
@wheel158,
markr has 6-10 points (SWE) coming for Men's and Women's Curling
tgordon92 has 3-5 points (OAR) coming for Men's Hockey

My last hopes are Snowboard Parallel Giant Slalom and Cross Country (mass start). Personally, I think I'm toast. Smile
tgordon92
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 11:31 pm
@wheel158,
Semis for snowboarding: 1 OAR, 1 SLO, 1 SUI and 5 others.

Looking tough for you, wheel158, and pretty good for markr.
wheel158
 
  1  
Reply Fri 23 Feb, 2018 11:53 pm
@tgordon92,
Women's Snowboarding was a wash:

Gold: CZE
Silver: GER
Bronze: GER
wheel158
 
  1  
Reply Sat 24 Feb, 2018 12:01 am
@wheel158,
Men's Snowboarding

Gold: SUI (markr)
Silver: KOR
Bronze: SLO (markr and wheel158)
0 Replies
 
 

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