Mexican elections 2018

Reply Mon 23 Apr, 2018 11:05 am
The first national televised debate was held last night.
All candidates were after AMLO, and he didn't answer the attacks, but rolled most of his campaign slogans.
According to most pundits and polls, Anaya was the clear winner.
Meade was OK, but didn't connect, he sounded like a technocrat even when saying that his wife was mugged during AMLO's goverment in Mexico City.
Zavala was terrible, mumbling and loud.
El Bronco was at ease and sometimes funny, but he had the worst proposals (militarizing high schools, cutting off hands of thieves).

AMLO may lose some of his huge lead, but it will still be confortable. Anaya may win a bit from all sides. Meade seems doomed. Zavala should lose what little she had.
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Reply Tue 1 May, 2018 10:01 am
According to the Wall Street Journal, it's a two man race:

Actually, I think WSJ hopes it's a two man race, and not a López Obrador landslide.
cicerone imposter
Reply Tue 1 May, 2018 10:37 pm
Looks like this candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has a good perspective on trade. https://www.wsj.com/articles/leading-mexican-presidential-candidate-would-respect-nafta-deal-1524766683?mod=cx_picks&cx_navSource=cx_picks&cx_tag=contextual&cx_artPos=2#cxrecs_s
Reply Wed 2 May, 2018 02:37 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Graciela Márquez -the top AMLO aide the WSJ interviewed- was my student when I taught at UNAM. I was also part of her graduation jury. She got straight A's because she studied a lot, but -honestly- she's not much of a thinker. She was a Marxist with the marxist teacher, a Keynesian with a keynesian teacher and a Monetarist with a monetarist teacher. She'll do what the boss says.
She was proposed by AMLO to be Secretary of Economy (Trade) if he wins.
I believe she believes AMLO will honor NAFTA. I'm not sure he will.

AMLO himself has said: "We will produce in Mexico everything we consume":

cicerone imposter
Reply Wed 2 May, 2018 02:44 pm
She just needed to take some philosophy courses. Wink
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Reply Wed 2 May, 2018 06:06 pm
The latest poll by Reforma newspaper is devastating:

AMLO (Morena) 48%
Anaya (Front) 30%
Meade (PRI) 17%
Zavala (Independent) 3%
Bronco (Independent) 2%

In the previous days there were some rumors that Meade would decline his candidacy in favor of Anaya. Both candidates have refuted the idea. AMLO followers have insisted on it, saying PRI and the Front are the same thing.

The crisis in PRI is obvious. The party's president, Enrique Ochoa -a dunce, if you permit me to express my opinion- resigned; his substitute, René Juárez, is supposed to be "more in contact with the party base". The fact is that not even the PRI faithful are happy with Meade's campaign (now centered on frightening people of a possible AMLO dictatorship... as if the nation's institutions were made of plaster or paper).

The Reforma poll expressed one thing: a lot of people (27%) think AMLO is a danger to Mexico... but 30% think poor Meade -the continuity of a PRI government- is the real danger.
cicerone imposter
Reply Wed 2 May, 2018 07:35 pm
I always thought Donald Trump was a danger, but he won any ways. Look what he's done in his first year. Divided the country, added tariffs to steel and aluminum, criticized our allies, and kissed up to Putin. Trump's unfavorable rating is 53%, and his favorable rating is 40%. Trump's been a bigot, liar and scammer all his life, and the voters gave him the most powerful position in this world. We're now all in danger on many fronts in addition to his stupid tariffs, and border wall.
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Reply Wed 9 May, 2018 08:31 pm
An analysis by Bloomberg:

"Mexico loves AMLO. Business? Not so much"
"Business hates Mexico's presidential front runner. So will Trump"

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Reply Wed 9 May, 2018 08:52 pm
Some polls from the important state of Jalisco (capital: Guadalajara, Mexico's second largest city).
In Jalisco, the conservative party (PAN) broke with the Front in the local elections. Jalisco's conservatives are very much so.
Same thing happened, at the local level, between PRI and its Federal allies.
This does not happen in the Senate race, in the case of the Front.


Poll by Reforma:
Alfaro (Citizen's Movement) 50%
Lomelí (Morena) 20%
Castro (PRI) 17%
Martínez (PAN) 7%
Others 6%

Poll by Massive Caller:
Alfaro (Citizen's Movement) 43%
Castro (PRI) 22%
Lomelí (Morena) 21%
Martinez (PAN) 9%
Others 5%

In any case, it'll be a landslide win for Alfaro

Senate polls:
(People vote for a 2 person formula; the party with the most votes gets both senators elected, the party in second place gets one senator; another 32 senators are elected nationwide, proportionately)

Castañeda & Delgadillo (Front) 34%
Kumamoto & Delgado (Independents) 28%
Cárdenas & Pérez (Morena) 21%
Corona & Contreras (PRI) 13%
Other formulas: 4%

Massive Caller:
Kumamoto & Delgado 29%
Castañeda & Delgadillo 25%
Corona & Contreras (PRI) 20%
Cárdenas & Pérez (Morena) 15%
Greens 9%
Panal 2%

As you can see, there are striking differences in the polls.
In one case, we'd have 2 senators from the Front and young independent Kumamoto
In the other, the independents would have done the feat of defeating the stablished parties (2 senators for them, one for the Front)

Probably, Morena's candidate for governor, Lomelí, will lose a few points in these days, because of a scandal: some of his properties belonged first to drug traffickers. Who sold them to him?

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Reply Thu 10 May, 2018 07:30 pm
Now we move South:

Poll for Chiapas governor (ARCOP)
(remember Chiapas is governed by the Greens, but they split with the PRI because they imposed the candidacy of Roberto Albores)

Cruz (Morena) 43%
Albores (PRI) 30%
Aguilar (Front) 24%
Orantes (Independent) 3%

Poll for Tabasco governor (ARCOP)
(Tabasco is the home state of AMLO, now governer by PRD -Front-)

López (Morena) 57%
Gaudiano (Front) 24%
Trujillo (PRI) 12%
Alí (Independent) 3%
Cantón (Greens) 2%

Massive Caller:
López (Morena) 50%
Trujillo (PRI) 20%
Gaudiano (Front) 19%
Alí (Independent) 7%
Cantón (Greens) 4%
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Reply Wed 16 May, 2018 01:07 pm
Breaking news!

Margarita Zavala just resigned her candidacy (supporting no one, for now).

In the polls she neved reached two digits, and was in downward spiral after the first presidential debate.

Perhaps her 3 points will be distributed between Anaya and Meade.

A twitter commentary about this consertivative ex-candidate I just read:
"Hey, Margarita, you should've given your candidacy in adoption, instead of aborting it!"
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