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Dean to seek chairmanship of Democrats

 
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Jul, 2005 07:40 am
nimh wrote:
Quote:
You see the similarities.

You honestly didn't see any ridicule in that column there, JW?


You aren't seriously asking that question of JW, are you, Nimh? Noonan has made earlier comparisons too...Bush with FDR and Churchill. There is a possible connection to be made between Churchill and Bush, but it is pretty much isolated to alcoholism...not prior bravery shown in combat, not learning, not intellectual curiosity. And decidely not in facility with the English language...Churchill having written his own speeches and Bush having difficulty reading his.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Jul, 2005 07:43 am
Actually haven't polls shown that a lot of women dislike Hillary?

As I've said previously, I really hope she stays out of it. I continue to be impressed with Obama, but if the character assassination is already starting, it will culminate with the cocaine thing -- not a whisper, not a rumor, something he admitted to in his book. I have hope anyway, but I really worry about that one little thing.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Jul, 2005 07:46 am
Quote:
And she's no more popular among women than among men.


http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/2020/hillary030607_poll.html

(Not sure of the date, though.)
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Jul, 2005 07:59 am
soz

The cocaine issue will not influence the African American community nor most of the other demographics. It will be a target of sliming, but if not that, something else would be manufactured in any case. Bush managed to get past this problem (even though he didn't have the requisite character to fess up).

Clinton's stats continue to move up. That she is hated by the right seems really to be a function of the same dynamics which set the right against the Clinton administration from day one...the Reagan/Bush conservative movement was impeded (at this point, for example, Ralph Reed went into a depression and considered dropping out of politics). Attacking Hilary was just one of a series of strategies to remove that administration. We all know how often the folks on the right here bring up Hillary and the manner in which they do it. She'll be polarizing, for sure, but that polarization is a consequence of divisive strategies and the 'culture war'. I think that war ought to be brought out and put front and center...it's the only way, I think, that the extremism of the modern right will become apparent.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Jul, 2005 08:03 am
But quite aside from Hillary, I should add, Obama stands as the most serious threat to Republicans desire to establish/maintain a thirty year dominance. He could, of course, run himself in 2008.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Jul, 2005 08:05 am
Quote:
The cocaine issue will not influence the African American community nor most of the other demographics. It will be a target of sliming, but if not that, something else would be manufactured in any case. Bush managed to get past this problem (even though he didn't have the requisite character to fess up).


blatham, I think that's rather... over-optimistic. The African-American community alone can not get anyone elected, and the accusation has enough resonance with other weaknesses -- lack of experience, lack of record, lack of governing in crisis -- that it could have a definite effect within the African-American community, too. They could like him personally but not quite be ready to entrust him with the whole country.

Meanwhile, for just about every other demographic, it goes straight to stereotypes and fears.

Hopefully he would be able to overcome it, but it's not a given, at all.

Meanwhile, there's a thread about Hillary, in deference to Ms. ehBeth shall we take the rest over there?
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Jul, 2005 08:19 am
Yes Blatham, I've read a lot about Obama, all good. Some real substance, too - not just a fancy way with words.

On the other hand, like Sozobe I am loath for Hillary to run for and win the nomination. Sure-fire road to another election loss.

Ebrown put it as well as anyone: those as far left as him find her as uninspiring as Kerry was; those anywhere on the right despise her even more than they did Kerry.

Whether justified or not, she would reinforce every single harmful prejudice against Democrats. The thing is - putting the opposition between Democrats and Republicans in the terms of liberal, secular, effeminate, middle-class blue-staters versus down-home real people red-staters has been the single most succesful strategy move the Right has undertaken. I see no reason why Democrats would want to actually start identifying themselves with that kind of perspective.

Remember: still, the majority of all the below-average income brackets vote Democrat. Still, the majority of all the above-average income brackets vote Republican. The richer people are, the more likely they are to vote Republican. There is no reason for Democrats to let the elite tag stick: they need a strong, folksy Progressive voice to put the spotlight back where it belongs: the Republicans are the rich folks' lobby group, dressed up in religious rhetorics; it's the Democrats who stand for ordinary folk.

I dont see how you could ever put that back center-stage with Hillary, of all people, as candidate.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Jul, 2005 08:21 am
Oops - sorry, Soz
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Jul, 2005 08:35 am
A final note then...

There are several traditional democrat voting demographics that the RNC is targeting...two main ones being African Americans and the jewish vote. Bush's speed into Iraq and his refusal to do much at all on the Israel/Palestine problem (recall Blair's hopes for that) is partly as a consequence of this targeting of the jewish vote. Here, Hillary is a strength.

It's hard to know what the next three years will present. Iraq is a huge wild card. What happens if the avian flu gets out, spreading human to human? The National Guard, a fundamental part of the planning for such an eventuality, is now tied up by Bush in Iraq (not to mention dollars needed). God knows how that might all play out in an election. Economic factors are another, with folks like Stiglitz and others suggesting a looming yuck.

Hillary is a risk, no question, and you guys might be right in assuming she's too big a risk. That was my view too, but I'm no longer certain. If things continue to go as badly as they are, many in the US electorate may increasingly look back on the Clinton period with nostalgia, and look on Hillary (with Bill in the background) as a source of hopefulness and relative sanity.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Jul, 2005 08:55 am
They may, but if things continue to go as badly as they are, many in the US electorate may be increasingly receptive to a new face to bring new hope and get us out of business as usual -- whomever that may be. Might not be an argument for Hillary.

Didn't mean to put the kibosh on this, just noting ehBeth's attempts to keep things on topic -- maybe find a Hillary thread and copy and paste our last few posts there?
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JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Jul, 2005 02:30 pm
nimh wrote:
Quote:
You see the similarities.

You honestly didn't see any ridicule in that column there, JW?


No. That was nothing more than a bit of sarcasm, pointing out that there are no similarities (kinda like an 'eyeroll', lol).

Because...then she goes on to say that she sees nothing wrong with Obama's resume.

Blatham erroneously points to Noonan comparing Obama to Lincoln, when in reality, all Noonan was doing was commenting on Obama comparing himself to Lincoln and coming up a bit short LOL. She didn't initiate the comparison at all....Obama did.

I liked your advice to the Dems, though. I just don't happen to believe that they've got what you recommended (a strong Progressive, folksy voice) in Howard Dean. Your mileage may vary.

I also agree with Sozobe that Obama won't run in '08 due to lack of experience and lack of a record to run on (although that doesn't seem to matter much to the Democrats in nominating a candidate LOL -- think 'Kerry'). Hillary will get it if she wants it.

I strongly disagree with Sozobe that Obama's former drug use will impact any election in which he partakes. He has been candid about it (in his book) and that's really all one can ask.

It does amuse me a bit that you think any criticism whatsoever of a man like Obama (whom I happen to like even though I think he's a bit full of himself lately) is to be seen as "the Republicans running scared". I assure you, I am quite confident and secure in my Party's ability to remain the dominating force in the politics of this country. One only has to look at the fiasco that is the oppostion to see why.

Smile
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Fri 8 Jul, 2005 05:37 pm
nimh wrote:
Lash wrote:
That's "The Dems Can No Longer Count on Our huge block vote, like women, and Hispanics, and increasingly blacks..."

Didnt we already have this discussion? Ad nauseam? Our finding was that the Democrats can pretty much still count on the black vote as much as ever ... what, having gotten practically the same share of black vote in 2004 as in 2000, which is a larger share than in previous elections?

I think at the end of that particular discussion, Lash ended saying that when she asserts the Republicans are "making progress" with blacks she is not talking about the numbers - not talking about the block of votes - but about quality improvement and such. Yet here it is again, that assertion that the Dems can "increasingly" no longer count on the black vote. Any kind of substantiation for that, or is it just still wishful thinking / predictive speculation at this point in time?


This time, I am saying we got more of the black vote in 2004 than we did in 2000. That's pretty cut and dried. More = increasing...<ly>

MORE than that, I am saying the Unions are rebuffing the Dems as their only choice. You sure did dodge THAT point for the tiny sliver of an argument that you thought you could make with the statement about blacks. <HEH, guess I'd do the same thing if I were in your....position politically.>

I remember the other conversation. Twas a different discussion, as I remember it.

But, why reach back for a different one, when we have this perfectly fine one right here?
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Jul, 2005 08:06 am
mysteryman wrote:
Tell me,did Clinton listen to the repub senators when he appointed SC justices?
Did he even ask for their opinion?
If you say no to either question,then you are admitting that he violated the constitution if he MUST get Senate advice first.
So tell me,did he violate the constitution?


Apologies to ehbeth for posting off-topic (a pet peeve of mine as well); however I notice this question of mysteryman's didn't appear to have gotten an answer yet.

In his 2002 memoir, Square Peg: Confessions of a Citizen Senator, Orrin Hatch explains how Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsberg got on the Supreme Court:

Quote:
In 1993, with the resignation of Justice Byron White, (President Clinton) had the first opportunity for a Democrat (sic) president in twenty-six years to nominate someone to the Supreme Court.

At the time, I was Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and would play a significant role in the confirmation process. Consequently, it was not a surprise when the President called to talk about the appointment and what he was thinking of doing.

President Clinton indicated he was leaning toward nominating Bruce Babbitt, his Secretary of the Interior, a name that had been bouncing around in the press. … Clinton asked for my reaction.

I told him that confirmation would not be easy. At least one Democrat would probably vote against Bruce, and there would be a great deal of resistance from the Republican side. … Our conversation moved to other potential candidates. I asked whether he had considered Judge Stephen Breyer of the First Circuit Court of Appeals or Judge Ruth Bader Ginsberg of the District of Columbia Court of Appeals. President Clinton indicated that he had heard Breyer's name but had not thought about Judge Ginsberg.

I indicated I thought they would be confirmed easily.


(In writing this, Hatch does not mean to demonstrate that Bill Clinton was an admirably bipartisan president. We know this because just two paragraphs later, Hatch excoriates Clinton for lacking any respect for tradition and the law and for basing all decisions on "immediate political or personal benefit." *gasp* No, Hatch's purpose is to demonstrate what an indispensably wise fellow Orrin Hatch is. He even inflates his resume'! In 1993, Hatch was ranking minority member -- i.e., the lead Republican -- of the Judiciary committee, not its chairman.)
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Jul, 2005 10:12 am
Lash wrote:
This time, I am saying we got more of the black vote in 2004 than we did in 2000. That's pretty cut and dried. More = increasing...<ly>

Hmmmm ... yes, to the letter you are right, I suppose. In 2000, Bush got 9% of the blacks, and in 2004 ... <drumroll> ... 11%.

Whether that's a substantive or meaningful increase at all is strongly doubtful, considering it's within the exit poll's margin of error.

Moreover, when the Republican candidate was not called George W. Bush yet, in the 1996 elections, Dole pulled some 18% of the black vote. Compared to that, there's no increase to be observed here at all.

Lash wrote:
MORE than that, I am saying the Unions are rebuffing the Dems as their only choice. You sure did dodge THAT point for the tiny sliver of an argument that you thought you could make with the statement about blacks. <HEH, guess I'd do the same thing if I were in your....position politically.>

I didnt realise I was expected to respond to every single argument you make. I have no beef with your argument about unions, so I didn't feel the need to respond; I do feel pretty strongly about your repeated assertions re: blacks and the Democratic Party, so I did respond to that. And?
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Jul, 2005 10:37 am
Cherry picker....
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Jul, 2005 10:43 am
Have never noticed you posting every time you agree with me ...

(I mean, either you don't, either, or you agree with me very rarely)

But yeah, sure. I chose to respond to something I disagreed with. I'm a bad man.
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Jul, 2005 11:00 am
Don't be so hard on yourself.
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ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Jul, 2005 06:18 pm
Quote:
OUTSIDE OF THE MONEY QUOTES THAT GET themselves endlessly repeated, Dean's speeches now are not that different from the ones he was giving, virtually unnoticed, in Iowa three years ago, when what he was saying had the pundits admiring his sensible approach. In the speech that included his shot at the Republicans not having "made an honest living in their lives," and in front of a liberal audience starving for similar red meat, Dean spoke long and earnestly about pension reform. In the rally in Boston, he attempted to frame the administration's efforts to change Social Security as an attack on the American idea of community, and he did so almost mildly.

The applause and the rimshots have been left in the ballroom, and he's talking earnestly now about the task ahead of him and the formidable opposition. "For us to get 48 percent in the last election, even though we were out-organized by the Republicans, is a good sign," Howard Dean says. "I still think it's a Democratic country with a big D, as long as we're centrist Democrats. There's a difference between being a centrist Democrat and being a Republican, and I really want to make sure the country knows that there is."

He likely will have one chance, and that will be in 2006. There is an unpopular lame duck president whose allies are nervous, and there are the congressional gains that are customary to the opposition party. Watch what happens in Nebraska. Watch what happens in Montana. If what he's trying to do out in the country works, Dean will keep his job. If not, there will be a powerful push to bring in a more conventional national chairman in advance of the 2008 presidential election. After all, Hillary Clinton is forming up a wagon train, and Biden, no fan of Dean's at the best of times, already has declared his intention to run. Howard Dean will have a year. No more than that. The lonely road to Ottumwa runs both ways.


Rebel with a cause


reflecting on 48%

no one seeming really thrilled with either party

is this an opportunity for a third party that is actually different from the Republican/Democrat twins?
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Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Jul, 2005 06:50 pm
I think when the House, the Senate and the Presidency are dominated Republicans--there is a distinct party in favor.
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JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Jul, 2005 07:19 pm
Howard Dean: 25% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Party%20Chairmen.htm
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