Too damn cool! The one suggesting he killed his dad could be golden as North Koreans truly revered Kim Il-Sung.
Quote:Rumors Fly Concerning State of Affairs in North Korea
WASHINGTON -- Recently, all sorts of rumors have been circulating about the North Korean system of National Defense Committee Chairman Kim Jong-il.
In Washington political circles, there have been rumors over the last 2 or 3 days that a coup had taken place in North Korea, and that anti-state groups had been distributing leaflets within North Korea, criticizing later leader Kim Il-sung and his son, Kim Jong-il. Ahead of this, the Internet edition of the New York Times reported on Nov. 8 that North Korean residents and military leaders had been launching continuous revolts against the Kim Jong-il dictatorship.
Despite these rumors, Kim appeared quite alive and well in North Korea's state-run media. Central TV and others reported Thursday that Kim, who had disappeared for half a month following his visit to Unit 756 on Nov. 2, had inspected Unit 754 along with military aides like Gen. Lee Myong-su.
About the coup rumors, an aide to an important U.S. Senator said Wednesday, "I heard talk of a coup yesterday
I called a number of places, and there were people who had heard rumors of a coup." He said, however, that he had not heard the source of or grounds for the rumor.
One Washington expert on Korea said he had heard rumors of a coup four days ago, and had asked a person in the Chinese border town of Dandong to find out what was going on. That person, however, could not detect any unusual signs, he said.
About this, U.S. State Department spokesperson Adam Ereli said his department did not have any opinion on the coup rumors worth sharing with the media or public.
Meanwhile, Japan's Sankei Shimbun reported Thursday that an anti-state group in North Korea had printed a leaflet severely criticizing the country's "dictatorship of the Juche ideology" on Oct. 10, the foundation day of the Korean Workers' Party, and distributed them in 50 places, including Pyongyang, Nampo, Sinuiju, Chongjin and Hamheung.
The Sankei said it received an actual copy of the leafet from Kim Dok-hong, the former head of Yogwang General Trading Company who defected to South Korea along with former Korean Workers Party secretary Hwang Jang-yop in 1997, and said it contained taboo material concerning the family history of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il and criticism of the Juche ideology.
Not sure how credible this is:
http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/11-18b-04.asp
But....hoping, hoping....
<Wonders if the CIA knew about any of this....>
OMG, that would be so cool! We'll know it's true when we see dancing in the streets on both sides of the 38th parallel!
[url=http://www.stratfor.info/][u][i][b]STRATFOR[/b][/i][/u][/url] wrote:
North Korea: Missing Portraits and Possible Change
Nov 17, 2004
Summary
Reports that portraits of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il are being removed from public sites in North Korea continue to circulate. The removal of the official portraiture, which might have begun as early as August, could signal another shift in Pyongyang's attempts at economic and political evolution. Even more intriguing is the prospect that the missing pictures, if true, could signal the end of plans for familial succession once Kim is no longer the leader.
Analysis
South Korea's Yonhap news agency cited a Seoul source with "good connections" in the North as saying that North Korea is removing pictures of Kim Jong Il from public places. This follows an Itar-Tass report on Nov. 16 that, at a recent reception in North Korea, there was only a "light rectangular spot and a nail in the wall" where the portrait of Kim once hung next to the one of his father, Kim Il Sung. Yonhap also cited Norbert Vollertsen, a German based in Seoul who advocates human rights in North Korea, as saying his sources in the North also confirm pictures had been removed, dating as far back as August.
If the large-scale removal of Kim's portraits is indeed taking place, it poses some interesting questions on the status of the reclusive regime. Is there a significant problem with Kim, physically or politically? Is there a massive political change coming in North Korea? Or is it something less drastic, but perhaps no less significant?
As for the first possibility, it is extremely unlikely Kim's portrait would be removed for political or health reasons. If Kim were facing political troubles, if anything he would try to strengthen his "cult of personality" to ensure -- if not force -- loyalty. That said, there have been suggestions for some time that Kim is uncomfortable with the level of public adulation for his portrait, and he might be trying to strengthen loyalty to North Korea rather than to his person.
In late July, some 460 North Korean defectors were flown from Vietnam to South Korea -- the largest mass defection since the Korean War and a considerable embarrassment to the North Korean regime.
In fact, defections steadily have been rising in recent years as economic woes persist in the North and activists from the South and elsewhere step up programs to encourage and facilitate North Koreans' relocation to the South. In 1998, just 71 defections were recorded; the number stood at 1,285 in 2003, and 2004 will top that figure.
As for Kim's health, again, it would be more logical to intensify the adulation of the leader should he be ailing -- and amid the rumors of disappearing portraits, Kim paid a visit to Korean People's Army Unit 754 on Nov. 16. Rather than Kim's own illness, there were rumors that his wife, Ko Young Hee -- mother of his second and third sons -- died in August, though this does little to explain the missing Kim portraits.
Though Kim neither appears sick nor in acute political trouble, there is the possibility that changes are coming in the North Korean political system. Pyongyang continues to tweak the nation's economic structure and policies, and even China has shown it is impossible to completely maintain the political system while in pursuit of a Marxist market economy. But the removal of Kim's portraits as part of some sort of minor democratization process in the Democratic People's Republic seems an odd step, unless the reforms will come in the shape of dismissals for incompetence and corruption, and Kim does not want to be the central focus as he purges his ranks.
A more intriguing possibility is that, by removing the pictures, Kim is signaling that the expectations of another dynastic succession are fading. There has been much speculation in recent years over who would eventually succeed Kim -- with equal betting on two of his sons. But by taking down his portrait, Kim could be saying the field is wide open for any competent party functionary. This would be an extremely risky maneuver, but one that would bring North Korea more in line with other states such as China and Vietnam, where familial succession is anything but the norm.
Perhaps not coincidentally, Kim met with the former Cambodian King Norodom Sihanouk at the end of July, while the king was staying in his Pyongyang home. At the time, Cambodia's regent was considering abdicating, and was struggling with the process of finding an appropriate successor from his family. The comparison to Kim's dilemma was obvious -- and while Cambodia's monarchy requires familial succession, the North Korean constitution has no such provision.
So ... what we pretty much solidly have here is definite conjecture. It certainly seems somethin' odd may be goin' on, even if even that can't be confirmed, and nobody quite knows what it might mean if its real.
Ahhhh, those wacky North Koreans ... always keep ya guessin', don't they?
Be sorta neat if over the next few weeks a "Breakthrough" in DPRK/US relations comes about; while that is not at all to be counted upon, it sure would prove inconvenient to some critics of the Ongoing Administration ... and might even be a real bang-up way to kick off Condl's new job.
North Korean analysts in Seoul and Tokyo said they do not believe there has been any kind of coup d'etat, but that Kim might be trying to soften his dictatorial public image.
Just pasting JW's find in case it goes archive after being the scoop of the century!
Quote:North Korean Leader Kim Jong il decides not to make the same mistake as Saddam - Democracy in North Korea?
North Korean leader Kim Jong il finally decided not to make the same mistake a s Saddam. It can dangerous to portray oneself as staunch anti-American and try to rule a country that really has no real friend. Saddam's biggest problem was he was over confident about what America and allies would do! He made a mistake in 1990 when he occupied Kuwait and stayed there for a while in spite of American warnings. He again made a mistake in not opening the doors for UN inspectors wide enough to really reveal that he did not have Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Kim Jong II of North Korea decided it is better to step down than be challenged by the world. Sources say his age and vigor are not favoring either.
According to Stratfor, a global think-tank and strategic political analyst, portraits of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il are being removed from public sites in North Korea continue to circulate. The removal of the official portraiture, which might have begun as early as August, could signal another shift in Pyongyang's attempts at economic and political evolution. Even more intriguing is the prospect that the missing pictures, if true, could signal the end of plans for familial succession once Kim is no longer the leader.
It is possible a negotiated peace settlement may be reached with US with Kim's voluntary departure from power and allowing North Korea to go for a democratic regime elected by people like in Afghanistan.
Wow. That's some pretty substantial news!
I will say Stratfor is a very reliable outfit ... not given to "Leap of Faith" conjecture or agenda-driven info-manipulation. Their sources are very good, and frequently Stratfor is way out in front of the trend when real news breaks. That they've given this as much attention as they have indicates they see reason to keep a close eye on things.
Its alright to hope, but in the case of the DPRK one should be very reluctant to place too much on news reports. Until we began seeing these reports this week there was nothing at all to suggest that Kim was not firmly in control. He has done similar mystifying things in the past, and there is no reason to suppose that he is anymore readable today. North Korea is the most controlled society on the planet, and the most difficult to get really good HUMINT from. Public displays and posturing are tools used to achieve certain ends, and trying to figure out the mind of the Kims has never been easy.
There may indeed be some unrest hidden deep in the hearts of some North Koreans, but they don't even often share discontent even with their closest family members. To be denounced, even for singing a foreign song popular sixty years ago to oneself, can result in arrest and confinement in a concentration camp. People have been shot for unknowingly trespassing onto turf Kim had set aside for his personal use. The top positions in both the military and the party are filled with Kim loyalists, many of whom have close family connections to him. So far as we can know, there has never been the slightest sign of mutiny. Watching over the whole, is an elite guard personally commanded by Kim that is constantly tested for loyalty, with death the grade given for anything less than 4.0 performance.
So why might Kim be orchestrating this little bit of theater? The bottom line is that no one can know. Some possibilities might be:
To soften his foreign image. This might be for a number of reasons. He may think it would make him less a target ala Saddam. He may want to make it more difficult to negotiate major issues with the DPRK, like building a nuclear stockpile.
To prepare for a campaign to name a successor. Kim's daddy, Kim Il-Sung, spent a great deal of time and effort to build him up as the legitimate successor. That effort did not go unappreciated, and we should expect that Kim may follow the same pattern. That doesn't mean that Kim is ready to step down. He is 63, and believed to be in very good health. A program to promote and prepare for regime change might go on for 5-10 years. Kim has appeared reluctant to firmly name a successor, though it is virtually certain to be one of his known sons.
There are at least three known sons who have been identified as possible successors. The oldest, and heir apparent until he was caught illegally in Japan, is currently leading a life of disipation outside the DPRK and is believed to be in disfavor for being caught. If this son had not brought embarrassment to daddy, he probably would already be firmly in the saddle. There are still some credible analysts who think this son will end up in charge. His mother was, so far as we know, never legitimized, but she appears to have been Kim's "love". She died in Moscow years ago, and her son was treated as the de facto heir to the Dynasty.
The mother of the second two sons is thought to have died recently, and had been given some unusual attention over the last year. The oldest of those two, holds an important post and is sometimes refereed to as the Young General (long story). However, a story told by Kim's personal chef who escaped back to Japan is that this son is disliked by the Dear Leader because he has "unmanly" traits. The youngest of those most likely would normally be the least likely in Korean tradition, but he also holds important posts and might be heir by default. The information on these guys is very small and often contradictory. We know that all of them were educated in Switzerland, and they surface occasionally in secondary roles.
To make the DPRK appear more progressive. Kim has occasionally "played" and talked as if he were looking to modernize the DPRK. Nothing has ever come of it, because that would require loosening the control the dynasty has over the government. He will give off signals that he really wants change and to improve government for the "benefit of the People", then he backs away. Those who move too quickly and optimistically are left with no where to sit when the music stops. Perhaps the purpose is to lure opposition out so that they can be destroyed. Perhaps, in his own mind Kim would like to improve things for his People ... just not enough to risk loss of dynastic control.
How can one make a complete list of possible explanations when the real reasons for a persons behavior can never be fully known. In the case of Kim Jong-Il, the guesswork is even more hazardous because he has a record of enigmatic and erratic behavior. Kim is somewhat like Caligula, or Nero, in that he has unlimited power over his people. He can think, say, or do anything he wishes without any constraints whatsoever. He has never in his life, so far as we can know, been forbidden anything he wished. Kim has had a long run, and there is no good reason to suppose that he has suddenly lost control over the government and People of the DPRK.
I believe that Kim's behavior is brought about by the clear willingness of the President to directly engage anyone, anywhere who appears to pose a threat to the United States or its interests. The only time that the DPRK even appears reasonable, is when they begin to believe that they have pushed too far and risk actual and real force. It may not be a coincidence that these small changes have appeared shortly after Bush's re-election.
Hope, but not too much. Only time will partially reveal what may be at play here.
Asherman - thanks for that perspective. I'm thinking it's almost too good to be true that something really good will come of all this, but as Timber and others have said, something is clearly going on...we just don't know exactly what it all means. Yet. Then, there's that military stuff that Timber has pointed out...I'm really wondering about that.
Something else I read this morning, but didn't attach too much importance to, is the fact that N. Korea has asked S. Korea for aid -- in the form of fertilizer. Reports are that over a million in N. Korea have starved (we knew that), but do you think it's significant that they're actually asking for help?
Quote:SEOUL, Nov 15 (Reuters) - South Korea will start shipments of 100,000 tonnes of fertiliser to impoverished North Korea later this week, the South's Red Cross said on Monday.
Last month the Red Cross agency in Seoul said it would send the aid shipments on humanitarian grounds and in the hope it would help restart stalled inter-Korean talks.
"The fertiliser will be delivered by the end of December via 14 shipments," a statement from the agency said. The first shipment of 5,000 tonnes will leave the South Korean port of Yosu on Nov. 17 for the North Korean port of Nampo.
The aid was requested by the North to help improve its harvests and comes on top of a regular 300,000 tonnes per year of Seoul's fertiliser aid.
Droughts and tropical storms have exacerbated agricultural and industrial problems in North Korea since the World Food Programme (WFP), the world's largest food aid agency, launched its first emergency operations in the country in 1995.
Aid workers estimate at least one million people in the North starved to death.
Between mid-1996 and the end of October this year, cumulative aid for North Korea from the United Nations and the South was almost $2.2 billion, mainly food, a report released by the state-run Korea Rural Economic Institute said, quoting U.N. data.
Out of this total, 62.8 percent, or about $1.38 billion, came from the U.N.-led programme -- known as the Consolidated Appeals Process (CAP).
The United States was the main contributor to the U.N. programme providing $644 million, while the South gave $383 million to this programme, it said.
Source
As the article notes, the DPRK already receives significant aid from South Korea. What does this additional aid mean? I'm not sure. However, I like what we've got going here. This thread has turned into a pretty good database of current North Korea articles.
A fresh article from the Economist (3 hours ago) captures the uncertain nature of recent events. I think this is a pretty good analysis.
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3403179
The only thing new about NK asking for help is the asking... usually it's more of a demand. Kim's regime is famous for selling food aid on the black market rather than distributing it to the people who really need it. I don't think there is much that the South Korean Government, or the people themselves for that matter, wouldn't do for their brothers and sisters in the North... but over and over their help has been exploited in heinous ways... just like US and the UN's have. Kim's participation in "Sunshine" was bought and paid for with money that was filtered through the South Korean Giant Daewoo. I read in a translated South Korean Newspaper that the South Korean's were livid when they learned the unapproved bribe money was likely spent on missile technology that put them in further danger.
I would think it a low percentage chance that anyone has gotten to Kim but I am very hopeful that he's starting to feel the heat of Bush's stare... and is thinking of going "Khadafi". Perhaps as he's gotten older he's starting to soften to his people's plight but I doubt it. This same man started out as a terrorist who took out a commercial airliner and has killed millions of innocents since. Compassion has never been his long suit.
With any luck; we'll keep turning up the heat until retirement in the South of France starts looking irresistible. :wink:
It was the "asking" part that made me suspicious, too. Wonder why they didn't ask China.
I actually think it's most likely that either he or his military heads are feeling the heat. If it's the military leaning on him, it's no doubt connected with the re-election of Bush.
Or...(hehe) maybe Kim Jong-Il was miffed at the way he was portrayed
here 
I should go and see that.
Kim Jong Il: [Is informed about Hans Blix's arrival] Rah no Hans Bwix!
[Hans enters]
Kim Jong Il: Oh hawo Hans great to see ya.
Hans Blix: I'm here to inspect your palace for W.M.D.s and your guards will not let me do my inspection
Kim Jong Il: Hans, Hans, Hans we've been over dis a dozen times. I don't
have weapons of mass destruction wokay.
Hans Blix: But you must let me inspect your palace.
Kim Jong Il: And if I don't?
Hans Blix: Then the U.N. will get very angry, and we will write you a letter telling you how angry we are.
JustWonders and Bill
I've read this story first a couple of month ago, but then with Bush talking instead of Blix.
However, there are some reactions from NKorea by now:
Quote:N. Korea: Kim rumors a "U.S. plot"
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- North Korea is denying reports that portraits of leader Kim Jong Il have been removed from public places, calling the accounts a U.S. plot to overthrow his government, China's main state news agency reported Friday.
"It didn't happen before, and will never happen," the Xinhua News Agency quoted North Korean Foreign Ministry official Ri Gyong Son as saying in the North's capital, Pyongyang.
Ri called the reports "an intrigue that the United States and its attaching countries want to overthrow" the North's government, according to Xinhua. It didn't say when he made the comments.
Russia's Itar-Tass news agency, citing unidentified diplomats, reported this week that portraits of Kim were being removed from buildings in the secretive North.
Kim and his late father, communist founder Kim Il Sung, are the focus of an intense official cult of personality in North Korea and their portraits are hung in all public places.
North Korea is locked in a dispute with the United States and its allies over its nuclear program.
"General Kim Jong Il is the fate of the Korean people and the DPRK's socialism. It is unimaginable that DPRK people and army can separate their fates from Kim Jong Il," Ri was quoted as saying, referring to North Korea by the initials of its official name.
"It is nothing but stupid and ridiculous acts just like trying to remove the sun from the sky," Ri said, according to Xinhua. "The adoration for the leader originated from people's life. It will never change."
Also this week, the Tokyo-based Radiopress news agency, which monitors the North, said the communist regime's state press had toned down the extravagant titles it usually bestows on Kim.
Foreign analysts suggested that Kim might have had such adulation reduced in an effort to lower his profile as a target for public discontent over food shortages and economic problems.
But South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported on Thursday that Rodong Sinmun, the main newspaper of the North's ruling party, referred to Kim by the honorific titles "Great Leader" and "Great Commander," indicating that he was still in charge.
North Korea is one of the world's most secretive, tightly controlled societies. Outsiders who try to follow political and economic developments there often are forced to rely on sketchy, secondhand information and details gleaned from the government's rare public acts.
A North Korean diplomat in Moscow earlier denied the Russian report that Kim's public portraits were removed.
A senior foreign official in Pyongyang also told The Associated Press that Kim's portraits remained in public places.
source AP via
CNN
Interesting - thanks Walter.
Quote:JustWonders and Bill
I've read this story first a couple of month ago, but then with Bush talking instead of Blix.
Which story? It's dialogue from the movie "TeamAmerica", released a few weeks before the election. There's some hilarious stuff about Kim in the movie, but the memorable quote I posted is about the only one I could share without being "tossed" due to TOS.
