@coldjoint,
coldjoint wrote:Do you have any idea how Joe Biden ... got more votes than Obama?
Trump happened. I mean, sure, Obama's lofty words of hope and inspiration drew votes. But voting out Trump was a much more potent motivator still. Polarization has surged to record levels, and it's boosted turnout for and against Trump.
coldjoint wrote:And did not win Bellwether counties, only 1
Realignment. The electoral coalitions of both parties are shifting, and shifting fast. The old bellwether counties were bellwether counties because their demographics fell right in between the old Dem and GOP coalitions. When the coalitions shift, they're no longer bellwether counties.
That has been going on for a while, by the way. Until 2008, everybody "knew" that it was impossible for a Democratic presidential nominee to win without winning "bellwether state" Missouri. Until Obama did — and now Missouri is safe GOP.
Each electoral precedent only holds until it doesn't. Until 2000, it was considered impossible for a Republican nominee to win without winning in Vermont — now it's one of the safest Democratic states in the country. Until 1976, people thought New Mexico was the ultimate bellwether state, because nobody had ever won a presidential election without winning New Mexico — then Carter did exactly that, and later Gore and Hillary Clinton did as well. Et cetera. Just imagine what were considered bellwether counties back when the Deep South was solidly Dem and New England solidly GOP.. soon, they weren't bellwether counties no more.
coldjoint wrote:or cut his party's loses?
Lot of swing voters just wanted to vote Trump out, even if they otherwise leaned Republican or just didn't care much. So they voted for Biden, but still preferred the Republican candidate down ballot — or just skipped the down ballot choices altogether. (Also nothing new — there is always a drop-off down ballot, though it's only logical that it was bigger still now.)