monitoring Trump and relevant contemporary events

In this column Krugman provides economic analysis of Trump's trade war with China, but I wanted to bring up a different, geopolitical concern. China seems not to be intimidated. Meanwhile US farmers are losing valuable markets and trade relationships. Domestic manufacturers are increasingly hampered by losing access to various sources of parts and components. And consumers will begin feeling a bite if the next round of tariffs goes ahead.

China can afford to simply ignore the USA. With economic ties cut off and political relations increasingly hostile and bellicose, doesn't Washington lose influence as well as economic benefits? People bitch about globalism but the idea of an interdependent world community based on cooperation and trade would seem like the best way of insuring peaceful relations, as each country has a stake in the smooth and unfettered transfer of goods and capital. Insisting on being "king of the hill" seems weirdly anachronistic.

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@hightor,

He is making America great again. That is if great and screwed are synonymous.

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Barbra Streisand has brought forth a new version of the Sondheim classic, Send In The Clowns. This version skewers Trump.

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@hightor,

Quote:

China seems not to be intimidated.

Why would they be?

With their buying power, they get to pick and choose pretty-much where they get their raw materials, and US corporate outsourcing has basically placed China's production companies in a stronger position, trade-wise.

Trump's attempts to level the playing field might be short-term, but doing nothing at all seems like what you'd prefer he be doing?

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@Builder,

Quote:

...but doing nothing at all seems like what you'd prefer he be doing?

Well, yeah, that's what I'd prefer he be doing, because complex dimensions of international diplomacy and long range strategic thinking are beyond his attention span. But if we had a competent leader with a well-functioning state department I'd prefer something along the lines of the TPTP and counter China's power with a large international trading bloc of cooperative nations.

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@hightor,

hightor wrote:

column Krugman provides economic analysis of Trump's trade war with China, but I wanted to bring up a different, geopolitical concern. China seems not to be intimidated. Meanwhile US farmers are losing valuable markets and trade relationships. Domestic manufacturers are increasingly hampered by losing access to various sources of parts and components. And consumers will begin feeling a bite if the next round of tariffs goes ahead.

Whether China is "intimidated" or not is something none of us knows for sure. Moreover it has little to do with our objectives in the ongoing struggle and negotiations. China needs the revenue from its exports to finance its internal economic health and it's continuing investment in new urban communities. I suspect the ruling party sees this as a critical element in its goal to exclusively retain all political power in the country.

The U.S. economy is in a much better position to weather the effects of a continuing trade dispute than is China's, and it is likely the Chinese leadership understands that very well. I suspect the Chinese leadership is playing for time and weighing their options in major part based on their expectations for the outcome of our forthcoming elections. If they conclude Trump is a very likely winner, we're likely to see a Trade agreement with them fairly soon. Beyond that we can expect them to keep the process going while they evaluate their options - as long as they see a significant probability of Trump losing the election, I believe they will simply stall and continue the process, if for no other reason than to deny Trump a victory that may make his reelection more likely.

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@hightor,

Quote:

I'd prefer something along the lines of the TPTP and counter China's power with a large international trading bloc of cooperative nations.

The TPTP is a corporate takeover strategy, that would effectively open up every participating nation's financial coffers (taxpayer money) to corporate piracy measures. Not surprising that you're basically uninformed about that, either.

As for the second notion, which nations are economically viable for mass production to replace China as the production centre for the west?

Kind of ironic that the last major communist nation/state on the planet is our go-to source for, well, just about everything. The US of A is even importing bridges, I hear. Shipped in in sections for assembly by........(drum roll)........Chinese labor.

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@georgeob1,

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If they conclude Trump is a very likely winner, we're likely to see a Trade agreement with them fairly soon.

I could absolutely see that happening — and, should it occur, I know where I heard it first!

But meanwhile we ought to be damned careful not to overestimate our hand here. China is really in a pretty good position right now, having made huge inroads into Southeast Asia, Pakistan, Africa, Eastern Europe, Italy, South America — you get the picture. I think it's dumb to try to isolate and "punish" China. The country is too populous, too mighty, too important — it's too big to fail.

https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.maeeshat.in%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F06%2FOne-Belt-One-Road-OBOR.jpg&f=1

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@Builder,

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Not surprising that you're basically uninformed about that, either.

Actually I do know something about it which is why I suggested something along the lines of it and not the same exact treaty. Obviously renegotiating some aspects of the pact would be a prerequisite for assuring its effectiveness. I think the USA is at a disadvantage if it tries to conduct all its trade relationships one-on-one.

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...which nations are economically viable for mass production to replace China as the production centre for the west?

Why not continue to allow China to serve this purpose if it is economically beneficial to all sides?

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Kind of ironic that the last major communist nation/state on the planet is our go-to source for, well, just about everything.

Kind of ignorant to refer to China as "communist".

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@hightor,

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Kind of ignorant to refer to China as "communist".

Possibly working from the map of Pangaea.

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No ****, Sherlock! award winner

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Nebraska state Rep. John McCollister (R) tweeted out a warning Sunday that his party is “enabling white supremacy”

...What I am saying though is that the Republican Party is COMPLICIT to obvious racist and immoral activity inside our party.

TPM

Complicit? Why yes indeed. It's a/the key element of their election strategy.

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Quote:

July was the hottest month humans have ever recorded, data shows

WP
Sunspots.
The climate is always changing.
It is sacrilege to think God would allow such damage to his creation.

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@blatham,

You know what is causing climate change? Video games.

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@blatham,

Open borders, too — we need a wall to prevent hot tropical air from drifting north.

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@hightor,

Hot damn! You and blatham are on to something.

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@RABEL222,

Actually, the great climate replacement destroys the western climate identity - it certainly has been orchestrated by a shadowy group as part of their grand plan to rule the world-wide climate.

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Forgive me if it has already been mentioned here, but has anyone seen reports of wildfires burning NORTH of the Arctic Circle?

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@snood,

The extent of the burning is unprecedented. And this results in the release of vast amounts of methane which is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. Evidently the smoke is visible from space — and as soot particles settle on ice sheets and snow fields they turn those surface darker which means more sunlight absorption and more melting. Not good.

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@hightor,

The dinosaurs had their asteroid, we have our forest fires. A much slower way to go. I wonder what species will survive to gain intelligence.

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@RABEL222,

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I wonder what species will survive to gain intelligence.

The "sub-species" who moved to the mountains by a lake.

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