@InfraBlue,
He might be alluding to the Hollywood (etc) flirtation with Communism. Reagan sort of made his name as president of the Screen Actors' Guild during that time, but it was pretty McCarthyistic.
Edit: I see by his post that I was wrong.
@hightor,
hightor wrote:
We know a lot less than we think about the world – which explains the allure of “simplism”
People think they know how to explain how zips, toilets, piano keys, helicopters and bicycles work, but don’t.
Interesting article that started out with a fairly standard model for complexity (sic) theory. Namely the rhetorical question. " What is the length of the Coast of England"? The answer of course depends on the resolution of your map: with greater resolution one sees minor extensions and inlets which adds to the estimate of length. This continues as resolution is added, even until one is going around individual rocks, even grains of sand. The result, of course is an unbounded series of real numbers.
Complexity theory started out in fluid mechanics as scientists struggled to understand the readily observable turbulent flows in viscous fluids, including air and water - the structure of the chaotic movements they entail and the conditions that led to the sudden transition from smooth. laminar flows to turbulence --- all without much success. That is basically why, even with the explosion of computing power the best numerical weather models today are able to produce accurate weather good only for about eight days. Gross seasonal patters can be predicted with reasonable accuracy, but the details of rain or shine and temperature at any given place or time cannot be known much in advance.
Mathematicians know such systems as those characterized in their dynamics by highly non-linear differential equations. The dynamics of such systems cannot be mathematically predicted or described. Useful gross statistical correlations can be constructed, but even they fail on many occasions.
As we know, human nature and behavior also involve such complexity. Statistical correlations can be found with respect to mass behavior but the thoughts and actions of individuals cannot be accurately forecast or known in advance.
The real "simplism" afoot in the world is simply the result of our efforts to characterize the very complex world around us. The complexities of Brexit are certainly an example, but so are those attending the actual results of any significant effort to organize or control public behavior, no matter how well-intended it may be.
The "simplists" out there aren't limited to ordinary people who 'don't know how toilets or helicopters work', as the author suggests: they also include the self appointed savants who would organize large elements of public life for everyone else. Examples abound in history of such programs that, however rational they seemed, ended up being distorted and defeated by unforeseen side effects (usually arising from the endless complexity of human behavior).
It turns out the major practitioners of "simplism" out there aren't ordinary people (who, it turns out are usually very adept at protecting their self-interest) : they are instead the self-appointed elites who presume to know what is good for everyone else. The author of the piece appears to be one.
@Lash,
At the same time the UK government has lost a court case allowing export licences for Saudi arms sales.
@georgeob1,
Quote:It turns out the major practitioners of "simplism" out there aren't ordinary people (who, it turns out are usually very adept at protecting their self-interest) : they are instead the self-appointed elites who presume to know what is good for everyone else.
In the complex world we face today it is often difficult for anyone to attain sufficient perspective to accurately gauge what constitutes "self-interest". Do we cut down the forests because the loggers perceive it to be in their self-interest but disregard the effect on floodplains and fisheries downstream? Is fighting a tax on sugary drinks in your self-interest while we all pay for the social costs of obesity? Is it really in the self-interest of anti-regulators to promote profits for the coal industry at the expense of public health? The fact is, there will always be specialists who will see patterns which are hidden from both the average person and specialists in other fields. And we will always resent having our understandings and prejudices challenged. It doesn't mean that we should ignore the news we don't wish to hear.
Quote:The author of the piece appears to be one.
I don't see where he exhibits that propensity at all. I thought he came across as quite modest.
Quote:President Trump has said he does not want war but warned Iran it would face "obliteration" if conflict broke out.
Speaking to NBC on Friday, he said the US was open to talks but would not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
He also expanded on his last-minute decision to call off strikes planned in response to the shooting down of a US unmanned drone this week, saying he had been told 150 Iranians would be killed.
"I didn't like it. I didn't think it was proportionate," he said.
Tehran says the unmanned US aircraft entered Iranian airspace early on Thursday morning. The US maintains it was shot down in international airspace.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48728465<br />
<br />
Even Hitler rowed back from threatening countries with genocide. Now Trump is showing his true colours. He should not be allowed to kill the entire civilian population.
Do Americans really want future historians to talk about their country the same way they talk about Nazi Germany?
@izzythepush,
Already in the books under Native Americans.
This **** hasn't gone away, and has **** all to do with Iran.
Quote:Three suspected al-Shabab militants have been killed after they attacked a police camp in Kenya's eastern County of Garissa, close to the border with Somalia, police say.
Other fighters were repulsed by security officers, a statement said.
At least eight Kenyan police officers were killed in an al-Shabab bomb attack last week in north-eastern Wajir County.
The militants have been trying to overthrow the Somali government.
The al-Qaeda-linked group has carried out attacks and kidnappings in Kenya, vowing retribution for the country's involvement with Amisom - a 20,000-strong African Union force helping to support the government in Somalia.
The Friday night attack happened in Yumbis Border Patrol unit camp in Fafi sub-county, but security officers did not suffer any casualties, police said.
The militants damaged a mobile phone mast, cutting off communication in the area, local newspaper The Star reports.
A team of security forces was pursuing the surviving assailants, police said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-48731602
@coldjoint,
Yes it is our government deciding that the media should only tell us how great Trump is and only doing puff pieces on what a wonderful job he's doing, which is why he keeps figuring out new ways to put the screws to a free press. It is Trump's government that wants to become BigBrother, in Orwell's immortal phrase. Cogent of you to point that out.
'Michael Moore warned Democrats about the fight ahead of the 2020 election after seeing the excitement and enthusiasm of President Donald Trump supporters Tuesday night in Orlando.
“I watched the whole thing last night,” the 65-year-old filmmaker tweeted Wednesday to his millions of followers, along with a clip from Trump’s rally in Florida where he officially kicked off his 2020 re-election campaign to a packed arena.
“I know no one wants to waste that kind of time even looking at him [Trump], but not wanting to see the enormity of the fight ahead doesn’t make it go away,” he added. “He hasn’t lost one inch of his fired-up insane base. Are u ready?”
https://dailycaller.com/2019/06/19/michael-moore-dems-enormity-fight-ahead-trump/
@Brand X,
Quote:...but not wanting to see the enormity of the fight ahead doesn’t make it go away...
So let's criticize the Democratic contestants — everyone knows that most of them are Republicans anyway — and vow not to vote in November if our ideologically pure and preferred candidate doesn't win the nomination.
@Brand X,
It was NWVER a matter of someone other than TRUMP winning the popular vote. HE LOT THAT. Its a matter of reassembling the majority in sveral ky states where its made up of a large contingent of OLD-WHITE-BLUE COLLAR males who are easily swayed by Plumps ARchie Bunkerisms.
When the GOP finally wakes up and discovers theyve been scammed, its gonna be a sad day on K street.
WORLD NEWSJUNE 22, 2019 / 10:11 AM / UPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Exclusive: White House's Kushner unveils economic portion of Middle East peace plan
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House on Saturday outlined a $50 billion Middle East economic plan that would create a global investment fund to lift the Palestinian and neighboring Arab state economies, and fund a $5 billion transportation corridor to connect the West Bank and Gaza.
The “peace to prosperity” plan, set to be presented by White House senior adviser Jared Kushner at an international conference in Bahrain next week, includes 179 infrastructure and business projects, according to details of the plan and interviews with U.S. officials. The approach toward reviving the moribund Israeli-Palestinian peace process was criticized by the Palestinians on Saturday.
The ambitious economic revival plan, the product of two years of work by Kushner and other aides, would take place only if a political solution to the region’s long-running problems is reached.
More than half of the $50 billion would be spent in the economically troubled Palestinian territories over 10 years while the rest would be split between Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. Some of the projects would be in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula, where investments could benefit Palestinians living in adjacent Gaza, a crowded and impoverished coastal enclave.
The plan also proposes nearly a billion dollars to build up the Palestinians’ tourism sector, a seemingly impractical notion for now given the frequent flareups between Israeli forces and militants from Hamas-ruled Gaza, and the tenuous security in the occupied West Bank.
Kushner's economic plan for Mideast peace faces broad Arab rejection
The Trump administration hopes that wealthy Gulf states and nations in Europe and Asia, along with private investors, would foot much of the bill, Kushner told Reuters.
“The whole notion here is that we want people to agree on the plan and then we’ll have a discussion with people to see who is interested in potentially doing what,” Kushner told Reuters Television.
The unveiling of the economic blueprint follows two years of deliberations and delays in rolling out a broader peace plan between Israelis and Palestinians. The Palestinians, who are boycotting the event, have refused to talk to the Trump administration since it recognized Jerusalem as the Israeli capital in late 2017.
Veteran Palestinian negotiator Hanan Ashrawi dismissed the proposals on Saturday, saying: “These are all intentions, these are all abstract promises” and said only a political solution would solve the conflict.
Kushner made clear in two interviews with Reuters that he sees his detailed formula as a game-changer, despite the view of many Middle East experts that he has little chance of success where decades of U.S.-backed peace efforts have failed.
“I laugh when they attack this as the ‘Deal of the Century’,” Kushner said of Palestinian leaders who have dismissed his plan as an attempt to buy off their aspirations for statehood. “This is going to be the ‘Opportunity of the Century’ if they have the courage to pursue it.”
Kushner said some Palestinian business executives have confirmed their participation in the conference, but he declined to identify them. The overwhelming majority of the Palestinian business community will not attend, businessmen in the West Bank city of Ramallah told Reuters.
Several Gulf Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, will also participate in the June 25-26 U.S.-led gathering in Bahrain’s capital, Manama, for Kushner’s rollout of the first phase of the Trump peace plan. Their presence, some U.S. officials say privately, appears intended in part to curry favor with Trump as he takes a hard line against Iran, those countries’ regional arch-foe.
The White House said it decided against inviting the Israeli government because the Palestinian Authority would not be there, making do instead with a small Israeli business delegation.
POLITICAL DISPUTES REMAIN
There are strong doubts whether potential donor governments would be willing to open their checkbooks anytime soon, as long as the thorny political disputes at the heart of the decades-old Palestinian conflict remain unresolved.
The 38-year-old Kushner - who like his father-in-law came to government steeped in the world of New York real estate deal-making - seems to be treating peacemaking in some ways like a business transaction, analysts and former U.S. officials say.
Palestinian officials reject the overall U.S.-led peace effort as heavily tilted in favor of Israel and likely to deny them a fully sovereign state of their own.
Kushner’s attempt to decide economic priorities first while initially sidestepping politics ignores the realities of the conflict, say many experts.
“This is completely out of sequence because the Israeli-Palestinian issue is primarily driven by historical wounds and overlapping claims to land and sacred space,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations.
Kushner acknowledges that “you can’t push the economic plan forward without resolving the political issues as well.” The administration, he said, will “address that at a later time,” referring to the second stage of the peace plan’s rollout now expected no earlier than November.
Kushner says his approach is aimed at laying out economic incentives to show the Palestinians the potential for a prosperous future if they return to the table to negotiate a peace deal.
Kushner stressed that governments would not be expected to make financial pledges on the spot.
“It is a small victory that they are all showing up to listen and partake. In the old days, the Palestinian leaders would have spoken and nobody would have disobeyed,” he said.
TRAVEL CORRIDOR
Kushner’s proposed new investment fund for the Palestinians and neighboring states would be administered by a “multilateral development bank.” Global financial lenders including the International Monetary Fund and World Bank plan to be present at the meeting.
The fund would include “accountability, transparency, anti-corruption, and conditionality safeguards” to protect investments.
A signature project would be to construct a travel corridor for Palestinian use that would cross Israel to link the West Bank and Gaza. It could include a highway and possibly a rail line. The narrowest distance between the territories, whose populations have long been divided by Israeli travel restrictions, is about 40 km (25 miles).
Kushner said that if executed the plan would create a million jobs in the West Bank and Gaza, reduce Palestinian poverty by half and double the Palestinians’ GDP.
But most foreign investors will likely stay clear for the moment, not only because of security and corruption concerns but also because of the drag on the Palestinian economy from Israel’s West Bank occupation that obstructs the flow of people, goods and services, experts say.
Kushner sees his economic approach as resembling the Marshall Plan, which Washington introduced in 1948 to rebuild Western Europe from the devastation of World War Two. Unlike the U.S.-funded Marshall Plan, however, the latest initiative would put much of the financial burden on other countries.
President Donald Trump would “consider making a big investment in it” if there is a good governance mechanism, Kushner said. But he was non-committal about how much the president, who has often proved himself averse to foreign aid, might contribute.
Economic programs have been tried before in the long line of U.S.-led peace efforts, only to fail for lack of political progress. Kushner’s approach, however, may be the most detailed so far, presented in two pamphlets of 40 and 96 pages each that are filled with financial tables and economic projections.
In Manama, the yet-to-released political part of the plan will not be up for discussion, Kushner said.
The economic documents offer no development projects in predominantly Arab east Jerusalem, which Palestinians want as the capital of their future state.
What Kushner hopes, however, is that the Saudis and other Gulf delegates will like what they hear enough to urge Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to consider the plan.
The message Kushner wants them to take to Ramallah: “We’d like to see you go to the table and negotiate and try to make a deal to better the lives of the Palestinian people.”
@Brand X,
Quote:"He hasn't lost one inch of his fired-up insane base. Are u ready?"
I'm not exactly part of his base (at least, not his base as they are defining it), but I'm all set to vote for Trump again.
Our civil liberties depend on Trump being reelected.
@neptuneblue,
Quote:Palestinian officials reject the overall U.S.-led peace effort as heavily tilted in favor of Israel and likely to deny them a fully sovereign state of their own.
They'd like the Oralloy Peace Plan a lot less.
My peace plan involves acknowledging the truth that there are no Palestinians. There are only Gazans.
My peace plan involves forcibly removing all of these Gazans from the West Bank and depositing them in the Gaza Strip where they belong.
They can form a Gazan state if they like. But every time they attack Israel, they will be mercilessly bombed.
Breaking News: Trump is signing an executive order the healthcare.
(Wonder how many executive orders he’ll sign during this election cycle)
