@blatham,
blatham wrote:
As Steve details, there are a lot of sitting Republicans who are getting out. We are not unpleased.
Some striking numbers on that:
The 30 House Republicans who have to date announced they're not running for reelection make for the highest number
since at least 1984, and probably
going back to 1900 or before.
This is obviously a happy sight for Democrats who are seeing once-remote chances of winning the House inch up gradually.
There are a couple of caveats, however. There has been a longer-term upward trend, in general, in the number of Republicans who refrain from running for reelection in each cycle (probably Dems too?). So this new record must in part just be a manifestation of that longer-term trend:
This chart also shows that the number of Republican House Reps not running for reelection was relatively high in 2014 too - and of course the party did just fine that year. (But then more of the withdrawals that time had to do with Republicans running for other - likely higher - offices rather than outright retirements.)
Final caveat: when
looking only at competitive districts, the gap between GOP and Democratic retirements/resignations practically disappears. However, even so we're talking about the highest number of GOP retirements at this point in the cycle since at least 2006: