@Cycloptichorn,
Did some research and answered my own question: the Senate will NOT be able to pass this bill without figuring out how to get rid of about 4 trillion dollars in debt that would be added by its' passage.
This is a gigantic problem for them. They didn't repeal the ACA and can't count the savings from doing so towards their tax bill the way they wanted, but they didn't really pare the scope of the bill back! Reconciliation doesn't allow you to touch Social Security, so they'll have to either:
- Massively cut spending in other areas
- re-include tax raises / getting rid of popular deductions that the House bill omitted
- Reduce the scope of the tax cuts significantly
- Fire the Parlimentarian and try to ram this through against the rules by installing an apparatchik in her place
And, even if they did so, do you think that Collins and Corker and McCain and Flake will be tripping over themselves to pass this bill? I sure don't.
If it weren't for the fact that failure to pass SOME sort of tax bill will literally doom the GOP in the upcoming midterm, I'd give this an almost zero chance of passage. Even so, I think the odds are extremely low.
Here's a good article on it -
https://hotair.com/archives/2017/11/02/gop-tax-plan-revealed-can-sell/