How will Trump handle losing the election?

Quote:

Lisa LererVerified account
George P. Bush tells @apwillweissert that he's the only Bush to vote the GOP ticket. Both 41 & 43 "potentially" may go for Clinton, he says

If anyone can find a precedent where two living ex-Presidents voted for the other party's candidate, I'll be more than surprised.

And let's note that Dick and Liz Cheney have both endorsed Trump.

1 Reply

@blatham,

blatham wrote:

You give me a report from Darrell Issa? That's laughable.

Ooohhhh... dang. I forgot that you only read and trust the liberal trash that you keep posting and I thought you might have actually been interested in a discussion. Man, fool me once, right?

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@blatham,

Well, I hate to be a pain in the ass (ahahahahahahahaha, no I love being a pain in the ass, shhhhhhhh!!) but Big Dick was never President, even though Bush 43 was a tad confused during the first term......but Liz, the baby hater, who hates her sisters kids, has never held public office, but thinks she should (she really shouldn't) oh God, I have to post later, I'm too cramped up to continue, OMG HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH, whew, AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA , later.

1 Reply

@McGentrix,

McGentrix wrote:

blatham wrote:

You give me a report from Darrell Issa? That's laughable.

Ooohhhh... dang. I forgot that you only read and trust the liberal trash that you keep posting and I thought you might have actually been interested in a discussion. Man, fool me once, right?

Oh stop, I can barely ahahahahahahahaha whew, breath, are you ahahahahahahhahah, you a-hole, stop ahahahahahahhahahahhahahhahahahahahahahhahah, wow dang, so funny, whew................. I should print this out mr. G'bag can show the boys at the O club, and I'm definitely showing this to he AFIO org next week in DC. oh crap, you can't make this stuff up hehehehehehehehehehehehohohohohoho damn. Big sighhhhhhhhhh.

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@McGentrix,

Discussion? I asked you for a precedent example of any senior Dem (comparable or even close to comparable with Chaffetz) that had ever made a claim/promise such as he just made. You post, in response, a report written by Issa.

You're not anywhere near a discussion.

1 Reply

@glitterbag,

Quote:

Big Dick was never President

Indeed. I tossed his name in here as a side note verifying where most of us perceived the real ugliness of that administration came from - Cheney and his office. Liz is a pet project of mine because I think of her as his equal in real awfulness.

1 Reply

@blatham,

With you? you are absolutely right. You've shown now that you are incapable of it.

Chaffetz is the head of the House Committee on Oversight. The reason he uses such strong language is a direct result of the document I quoted. It's nothing new that the Oversight Committee would say the things that Chaffetz has said and it started back with Waxman and the Bush admin.

If you can't see past the article being written by Daryl Issa then that is your problem, not mine. It's not like I quoted Limbaugh. Get over yourself, you aren't that special.

1 Reply

@blatham,

Liz is reptilian. A lost soul with daddy issues, not suited for public office unless she is running in Kentucky or Mississippi........puleeze

1 Reply

@McGentrix,

But Mickey G, we all know how special you are! Don't play hard to get, because you've been had for a long long time.

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@glitterbag,

Quote:

Liz is reptilian.

She's a bad one. And she's going to win her race and join the House. And then she's going to be extremely dangerous. I am pretty much convinced that she's going to run for the WH in four years. And she will likely be formidable (she's a talented politician and she's quick on her feet in discussion/debate). And she will, of course, gain very broad support across the GOP universe.

1 Reply

@blatham,

God, I didn't know she was in a winning campaign right now. She's even more scary-deranged than her Darth vader daddy.

1 Reply

@snood,

I've maintained a google news alert on Liz from the point where she began her earlier botched run in Wyoming. She's deeply embedded in the neoconservative universe (has led a couple of organizations with Bill Kristol, for example) so her foreign policy ideas are pretty much a duplicate of her father's. But she's a more talented and charismatic politician than Dick. I presumed, in that earlier run, that she was gearing up for (and being groomed for) a run against Hillary this cycle but she and her family screwed up bad and that didn't work out. This time, she's going to be successful. I think she's one of a handful of seriously dangerous figures on the horizon.

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This is from Bush speech-writer David Frum on why he's voting for Clinton.

Quote:

I appreciate that Donald Trump is too slovenly and incompetent to qualify as a true dictator. This country is not so broken as to allow a President Trump to arrest opponents or silence the media. Trump is a man without political ideas. Trump's main interest has been and will continue to be self-enrichment by any means, no matter how crooked. His next interest after that is never to be criticized by anybody for any reason, no matter how justified—maybe most especially when justified. Yet Trump does not need to achieve a dictatorship to subvert democracy. This is the age of “illiberal democracy,” as Fareed Zakaria calls it, and across the world we’ve seen formally elected leaders corrode democratic systems from within. Surely the American system of government is more robust than the Turkish or Hungarian or Polish or Malaysian or Italian systems. But that is not automatically true. It is true because of the active vigilance of freedom-loving citizens who put country first, party second. Not in many decades has that vigilance been required as it is required now.

Your hand may hesitate to put a mark beside the name, Hillary Clinton. You’re not doing it for her. The vote you cast is for the republic and the Constitution.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/dont-gamble-on-trump/506207/

2 Replies

@blatham,

Wow, I almost feel sorry for Frum. He was such a believer and he's been so disappointed in recent years.

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Quote:

Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory

If the race tightens any further, Clinton’s electoral edge is fragile.

By Nate Silver

Tuesday was another pretty good day of polling for Donald Trump. It’s also not an easy day to characterize given the large number of polls published. You could cherry-pick and point to the poll that has Trump up 7 percentage points in North Carolina, for example, or the ABC News/Washington Post national tracking poll that has Trump up 1 point overall. And you could counter, on the Hillary Clinton side, with a poll showing her up by 11 points in Pennsylvania, or a national poll that gives her a 9-point lead.1

Our model takes all this data in stride, along with all the other polls that nobody pays much attention to. And it thinks the results are most consistent with a 3- or 4-percentage point national lead for Clinton, down from a lead of about 7 points in mid-October. Trump remains an underdog, but no longer really a longshot: His Electoral College chances are 29 percent in our polls-only model — his highest probability since Oct. 2 — and 30 percent in polls-plus.

Whenever the race tightens, we get people protesting that the popular vote doesn’t matter because it’s all about the Electoral College, and that Trump has no path to 270 electoral votes. But this presumes that the states behave independently from national trends, when in fact they tend to move in tandem. We had a good illustration of this in mid-September, when in the midst of a tight race overall, about half of swing state polls showed Clinton trailing Trump, including several polls in Colorado, which would have broken Clinton’s firewall.

This time around, we haven’t seen too many of those polls in Clinton’s firewall states, such as Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. But that’s misleading, because we haven’t seen many high-quality polls from those states, period! We have seen lots of polls from North Carolina and Florida — for some reason, they get polled far more than any other states — and plenty of them have shown Trump gaining ground, to the point that both states are pure toss-ups right now.

So, should you expect to see polls showing Clinton behind in states like Colorado and Wisconsin? Not necessarily. Clinton probably still leads in those states, and we’d expect her to win them if she wins nationally by 4 points or so, where national polls have the race.

Here’s an illustration of that. From a set of simulations the polls-only model ran earlier this evening, I pulled the cases where Clinton won the national popular vote by 3 to 5 percentage points. In other words, we’re positing that the national polling average is about right, and seeing how the results shake out in the states:

Trump has (almost) no path if he loses the popular vote by 3-5 points

STATE

ELECTORAL VOTES

PROJECTED MARGIN

TRUMP WIN PROBABILITY (%)

Clinton “firewall” (272 EV)
New Mexico 5 -7.7 6
Maine 2 -7.5 12
Virginia 13 -6.3 3
Minnesota 10 -5.7 6
Wisconsin 10 -5.0 7
Michigan 16 -4.8 7
New Hampshire 4 -4.6 17
Pennsylvania 20 -4.6 8
Colorado 9 -4.1 10
_
Other competitive states
Nevada 6 -1.2 37
North Carolina 15 -0.4 46
Maine CD-2 1 -0.3 48
Florida 29 -0.3 47
Ohio 18 +1.2 66
Arizona 11 +1.6 68
Iowa 6 +1.6 68
Nebraska CD-2 1 +3.5 64
Georgia 16 +4.9 92
Alaska 3 +5.9 75
Utah 6 +8.9 77

Trump’s chances are slim-to-none in this scenario. His odds are 10 percent or below in all of the Clinton firewall states except for Maine and New Hampshire — both of which our model considers more uncertain than other states for a variety of reasons. And Maine wouldn’t be enough to put Trump ahead anyway.2

Sure, there’s the chance that the polling in one of the other states could be wacky (maybe there’s an unexpectedly high Gary Johnson vote in Colorado, for instance). But if that happens, Clinton has some backup options in the form of Florida, North Carolina and Nevada. She’d have to get really unlucky to lose the Electoral College with a popular vote lead like the one she has now.

But the thing is, this doesn’t really have anything to do with an intrinsic advantage for Clinton in the Electoral College, or Trump’s lack of a path to 270 electoral votes. It’s just saying that if the polls are about right overall — even if they’re off in some individual states — Clinton will win. We agree with that, and that’s why Clinton’s a favorite in our model overall. The polls have her ahead.

The question is how robust Clinton’s lead would be to a modest error in the polling, or a further tightening of the race. So here’s a second set of simulations, drawn from cases in which Trump or Clinton win the national popular vote by less than 2 percentage points:

Trump has many paths if the popular vote is within 2 points

The rest at the source

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@blatham,

David From captured the essence of Trump when he described him as slovenly and incompetent. I've been struggling for the last week trying to find a way to describe how I feel when I hear him speak. There is something about the man's character and what appears to be his sense of self that repulses me, but I couldn't put a name on it until From described him as slovenly and incompetent. That puts in a box with a bow on top.

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@glitterbag,

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/01/trump-scores-lowest-rating-history-presidential-leadership-poll-gop-heads-total-disaster.html
Trump plasters his name on everything he owns; proof of his narcissism. It was fun to watch what happened after his name became a liability, and he changed the name of his properties to Scion.

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@glitterbag,

He sounds like a used car/snake oil salesman. Just Elect Trump and all your problems will be solved in three quick applications of Executive Orders!

Need a better job? Elect Trump!
Don't like dirty Mexicans? Elect Trump!
Don't like scary Muslims? Elect Trump!
Don't like abortions? Elect Trump!
Want a roaring stock market? Elect Trump!
Want good roads, schools, and a chicken in every pot? Elect Trump!
Want lower taxes? Elect Trump!

He'll put money in your pocket and dinner on the table!

You've got Trouble with a Capital 'T', but Elect Trump and the Wells Fargo Wagon will be a-comin' down the track and we'll have a parade by the end of the day!

1 Reply

@DrewDad,

Trump doesn't have a prayer. According to Gallup, Trump has the lowest score ever recorded for a presidential candidate at 32%. All other candidates all scored above 50%.

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@glitterbag,

I read that as a description of his intellect and found it very apt. And of course this manifests in how he speaks and in how he "argues" (in the Logic sense of that word).

But I think DrewDad is onto something key here as well. There are common aspects of his rhetorical style (constant repetition of key ideas, bombastic assertions, utter disregard for details and reality, non-credible trashing/belittling of competitors) that mark the worst sort of sales patter and con jobs.

1 Reply

How will Trump handle losing the election?

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