Thomas wrote:Okay, hypothetical question: You state somewhere on A2K that 2+2=4. The next day, Osama bin Laden announces he won't shoot you if you stand by that statement. You have two options: a) you respond "I don't give a damn what this guy says, 2+2 is still 4", or b) you say "Whoa, I've got to be a good patriot and take a stand against terrorism. I renounce my old position, and my new position is that 2+2=5."
We'll talk soon about how close this example is to the choice faced by the new Spanish Prime minister, but in this hypothetical example, which option would you choose?
A very clever, but not analogous hypothetical.
First, I would state that 2+2 remains 4 no matter what I or any others may say. No statement of mine or, for that mater, decision of mine with regard to any future action can change that. I would also recognize that I have a problem with Osama, even if the issue at hand is resolved. He is willing to harm or murder me to advance issues of his own. He is my enemy and, as long as he appears willing to act on his expressed intent, he is a danger to me and mine. I must either accept the consequences, persuade him to change, or kill him. Given the outrageous nature of the threat, persuasion must be considered carefully for both its potential for success and the likely effect of the attempt on his evaluation of the situation and resulting actions. I would not recommend it.
In the real situation at hand the Spanish PM elect does have the real option to make 2+2=5, that is to change, or not change, the policy he expressed before both the election and the bombing. The question here is - has the subsequent bombing and the threat implied in the cynical "Truce" changed the situation enough for the PM elect to reevaluate his previously announced policy? Certainly the situation has changed. The terrorist act was clearly intended to influence the policy of the Spanish government. It has already influenced the outcome of their election. How does the PM elect asses this new graver situation?
We already have his answer. He has reaffirmed his previously announced policy, after the bombing and after the truce announcement. He has in effect stated that the bombing and the cynical announcement have not changed his assessment of the situation. This is assent.
My assessment holds.