Thomas wrote:Are you sure? What outcome was expected? The last time I called my aunt in Barcelona, which was before the attack, she said the outgoing administration was pretty unpopular , and that their stand on Iraq played a big role in it. So a defeat for the conservatives wouldn't have come as a big surprise to my aunt at this point. But I admit I haven't read any Spanish polls on this, and it appears that you have. If so, would you mind quoting the predictions for me?
PDiddie wrote:Between 80 and 90% of the Spanish electorate was opposed to the Iraq War, and this level of opposition held going all the way back to before the war began.
Aznar and the conservatives were bound to lose.
Scrat wrote:There are reams of news reports stating that polling suggested the incumbent had a strong lead before the Madrid bombing. If you insist, I can take time to find a specific news report, but must I? You're well enough informed to know this too.
Well, those are snippets from one of the longest conversations I've yet seen about something all participants admitted not actually knowing the numbers about ;-)
Actually, fbaezer has repeatedly posted the poll numbers and explanations, primarily in
the main thread here about the attacks.
Aznar's party led in the polls by a margin of some 3-4% until the terrorist attack.
That is hardly "a strong lead" as Scrat would have it - especially considering that almost all the third parties of note lean towards the Socialists as well. But it also hardly suggests Aznar "was bound to lose", as PDiddie would have it.
In the end, it wasnt so much a massive change of mind, but the unexpectedly high turnout that turned the numbers around.
Fbaezer quoted a poll which said only 1% of the voters actually changed their mind after the terrorist attacks - so much, thus, for Scrat's theory that the Spaniards gave in to the terrorists by massively letting their attack decide whom they would vote for. What happened instead was that a great number of people, among whom many youngsters, turned out to vote when they had initially not been expected to. In the face of a massive attack just before the elections, voting was seen as a civic duty more than ever. And those extra voters mostly voted left.
Partly this is logical, since in Europe high turnout is almost always good for the left - irregular voters tend to be more leftwing than dutiful voters, and young people especially. So even a wholly non-partisan flavour to the higher turnout would already have swung the vote more into the Socialists' direction.
Partly the high turnout was also driven by outrage over the way the government tried to cover up the Al Qaeda news because it was expected to benefit fro the assumption of an ETA attack. All TV stations in Spain are under quite firm government control, and the perceived cover-up aroused the already existing unease about being lied to. Especially among the young, since they had also been the most massively opposed to the war, and had already faced the TV news reluctance to report about their mass demonstrations.
So though Scrat seems to be wrong about the Spaniards massively deciding to switch votes in reaction to what the terrorists did, it
can be said that a large extra group of Spaniards decided to
go vote in response to the terrorist attacks and the way the government dealt with them - and the net result of that was to tip the victory to the left.