George W. Bush spent most of December sinking in the polls, but a few beats on the war drum in the past seven days --Saddam caught! Gadhafi rolls over! -- and suddenly the trend is reversed.
This pattern will be repeated throughout the coming year. This is precisely Karl Rove's strategy to re-elect Bush in 2004.
Ironically, the bloc of Americans now poised to keep Bush in the White House is the one which stands to lose the most from nearly every single one of his policies: blue-collar men.
A full 49 percent of them and 38 percent percent of blue-collar women told a January 2003
Roper poll they would vote for Bush in 2004.
Here's some excerpts on this strange phenomenon from
"Let Them Eat War", by Arlie Hochschild:
Quote:The blue-collar vote is huge. Skilled and semi-skilled manual jobs are on the decline, of course, but if we count as blue-collar those workers without a college degree, as Ruy Teixeira and Joel Rogers do in their book Why the White Working Class Still Matters, then blue-collar voters represent 55 percent of all voters. They are, the authors note, the real swing vote in America. "Their loyalties shift the most from election to election and in so doing determine the winners in American politics."
This fact has not been lost on Republican strategists, who are now targeting right-leaning blue-collar men, or as they call them, "Nascar Dads." These are, reporter Liz Clarke of the Washington Post tells us, "lower or middle-class men who once voted Democratic but who now favor Republicans." Nascar Dads, commentator Bill Decker adds, are likely to be racing-car fans, live in rural areas, and have voted for Bush in 2000. Bush is giving special attention to steelworkers, autoworkers, carpenters and other building-trades workers, according to Richard Dunham and Aaron Bernstein of Business Week, and finding common cause on such issues as placing tariffs on imported steel and offering tax breaks on pensions.
We can certainly understand why Bush wants blue-collar voters. But why would a near majority of blue-collar voters still want Bush? Millionaires, billionaires for Bush, well, sure; he's their man. But why pipe fitters and cafeteria workers? Some are drawn to his pro-marriage, pro-church, pro-gun stands, but could those issues override a voter's economic self-interest?
Here's a small part of an
interview with Hochschild:
This really gets at who wins in November, from where I sit.
Either the Dems will be able to convince enough of these guys that they're getting hosed by the Republicans, or they won't.