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If people in other countries could vote in the Presidential elections.. eg the Netherlands, Britain

 
 
nimh
 
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2016 03:27 pm
.. How would they vote?

I don't know about other countries, but in The Netherlands there is at least one pollster which has asked about exactly this a couple of times this year already. I would guess that there are pollsters in other countries, especially in Europe, that have done so as well?

In the Netherlands, findings were a little ... lopsided. On February 7, a whopping 76% said they'd vote for Hillary Clinton, and just 16% for Donald Trump. On May 8, things were a tad tighter: 70% to 21%. And on June 19, the divide had opened up wider again: 73% to 16%. A chart doesn't add much with that kind of numbers, but here goes:

http://i.imgur.com/yPUJcsT.png

The pollster (Maurice de Hond) provided a breakdown by party preference as well. It turns out that the only Dutch party whose voters appreciate Donald Trump is the Freedom Party. That's the anti-Islam, anti-immigrant, anti-EU, party of Geert Wilders:

http://i.imgur.com/0HXtIOW.png

Back in May, a plurality of Freedom Party voters preferred Trump (49%) over Clinton (40%). But by June, the balance had already reversed itself again, and they broke for Clinton 46% to 41%. Which is kind of remarkable, considering that Geert Wilders himself last year tweeted that he hoped Trump would be the next U.S. President.

Freedom Party voters only make up about a quarter of Dutch voters though. (The numbers on the left in that link refer to seats, not percentage points; there are 150 seats in the Dutch parliament.) And the rest of the Dutch electorate isn't having Trump.

Centrist and center-left voters (Labour, the Democrats, the Greens) are most solidly on the side of Hillary, giving her 93-99% of their votes in these three polls. Trump isn't doing any better with Socialist Party voters, but those have been a tad more likely to say they had no preference. And even voters of the mainstream right (the VVD of Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the Christian-Democratic party) are preferring Clinton over Trump by massive majorities (80% to 11% resp. 86% to 8% in the last poll):

http://i.imgur.com/dvRCX5J.png

Since Dutch voters so clearly prefer the Democratic candidate in the race, it's maybe also interesting to see how Dutch voters viewed the Democratic primary contest. The same pollster asked about that back in February:

http://i.imgur.com/RqAl8eX.png

With the exception of Freedom Party voters (and to a lesser extent, Socialist Party voters), most Dutch voters had an opinion/preference. And mostly, they preferred Hillary. Support for Hillary was strongest among mainstream, center-left and center-right parties. Support for Bernie was, unsurprisingly, strongest among Socialist and Green voters. Even among them, though, twice as many preferred Hillary than Bernie.

That's probably partly a matter of name recognition and familiarity, partly a reflection of how popular the Clintons are in Holland, and maybe partly an indication of the traditionally pragmatic outlook of the Dutch, who'd rather leave all the revolution stuff to the French. :-)
 
George
 
  7  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2016 06:34 pm
Now ask US citizens how they would vote in the Netherlands election.
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2016 07:15 pm
@George,
Most don't even vote in the US, and are ignorant about politics in other countries. They may have heard about Putin, but not much else. You're asking for the impossible - me thinks.

Here's an intersting list of elections by country: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_recent_elections_by_country
0 Replies
 
Blickers
 
  2  
Reply Mon 4 Jul, 2016 09:26 pm
@nimh,
Nimh:

Does the Freedom Party have a lot of Neo-Nazis in it?
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  3  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2016 12:23 am
@George,
Heh. To be fair, though, Dutch politics is a lot less consequential to American lives as vice versa.. who the next US president is affects us all.
saab
 
  3  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2016 01:30 am
@nimh,
They would just vote for the person they like the most. The Europeans do not know much about the problems in USA, they do not know about the life for a farmer in Wisconsin or a fisherman in Maine.
They would not grasped why Americans are pro or contra a certain person or what is discussed. You read an European paper that 20 million Americans have no job or are poor or whatever. Then they think of the population in their own country but do not know how big the population is in USA.
It is one way for the press to manipulate us.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2016 01:57 am
If i could vote in the Dutch elections, i'd vote for Birgit Sarrap.
nimh
 
  2  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2016 02:33 am
@Setanta,
I had to look up who that is.. an Estonian singer?
nimh
 
  2  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2016 02:35 am
@saab,
Quote:
They would just vote for the person they like the most


I'm not so sure it's all that different for many Americans.. (or for Europeans with elections in their own countries)
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2016 02:41 am
@nimh,
She was born in Utrecht. Her mother is Chinese-Surinamese.
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2016 12:38 pm
@Setanta,
Trip out. Interesting.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2016 01:46 pm
It's not directly about the elections (though about Obama, Clinton, Trump) - a recent Pew Research Center poll shows some more European opinions.
0 Replies
 
RABEL222
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2016 02:07 pm
@George,
Where exactly is the Netherlands? Razz Razz just kidding.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  2  
Reply Tue 5 Jul, 2016 08:06 pm
@nimh,
nimh wrote:

Heh. To be fair, though, Dutch politics is a lot less consequential to American lives as vice versa.. who the next US president is affects us all.


This is really the key, isn't it?

I don't want to get into another discussion/debate focused on semantics and what a "conservative" or a "liberal" in Europe is so I'll use "Left of Center" (LOC) and "Right of Center" (ROC).

I can easily imagine a Dutch ROC favoring Clinton over Trump based solely on perceived interests of his nation:

A militarily strong and prepared US is in the best interests of all Europeans, including of course the Netherlands. While LOCs might be wary of what they consider military adventurism led by America, I would hope they are smart enough to realize their country's security depends quite a bit on the state of the US military and the political will to use it. In Hillary Clinton, I think there is reason for the Dutch to believe she has that will and that she favors a strong NATO. Some, I'm sure, might agree with a lot of Sanders Supporters that she is too willing to use US military might, but I think it's hyperbolic to suggest she's anythink like a warmonger.

She certainly appears to be a globalist, but any assessment of her could be turned on it's ear once she has the reins of power. Still, I think she genuinely supports open markets and borders, internationally. She can't exert much direct influence on Dutch internal politics so even those who might want tighter border controls and more independence from EU bureaucrats for Holland could see benefit for his or her country by a globalist in the White House as opposed to an America First isolationist who wants to restore US jobs by imposing trade restrictions (and this applies to Trump & Sanders)

Even hardcore Dutch capitalists have reason to believe that notwithstanding her left-wing rhetoric intended to pander to Sanders Supporters, her long standing and mutually beneficial relationship with Wall Sreet strongly suggests she's going no where near anything close to nationalizing banks.

Granted the Dutch have a bigger reason to be interested in American politics, and no doubt know more about the subject than most Americans know about current affairs in general in the Netherlands, but I don't believe you live in a land of American political science experts.

If I were Dutch or Spanish, Belgian etc, I would prefer as leader of the nation that has such outsized influence over my country, one who provides me without at least the sense that he or she cares what my country and its people think about him or her and the US.

It's why Europeans loved Obama. It's why they like Clinton and it's also why they are not big fans of Trump or Sanders.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Jul, 2016 01:23 pm
@RABEL222,
Just an hour away from Southampton, and it's bloody fantastic. I've had some great times there.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Jul, 2016 01:33 pm
@izzythepush,
Been to Amsterdam several times many decades ago; saw most of the tourist attractions, Anne Frank House, Van Gogh Museum, canal cruise, and the red light district. I'm sure it hasn't changed much since my visit.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Jul, 2016 01:46 pm
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:
Just an hour away from Southampton, ...
I've to drive two hours.

izzythepush wrote:
...and it's bloody fantastic.
That's true, in any of the 12 provinces. (Especially those not so crowded regions like Zeeuws Vlaanderen or Leiden [and Gouda!] instead of Amsterdam.)
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Jul, 2016 04:28 am
@Finn dAbuzz,
I think you made a pretty persuasive argument about why Hillary Clinton seems wholly acceptable to center-right Dutch people (and I assume, their peers across much of Western Europe).

Maybe it's not quite as much a cold-blooded calculation of perceived national interest as you suggest - I don't think most Dutch people spend a lot of time thinking about NATO, for example, though it's probably very true that they do feel rattled by Trump's "America First"-type rhetoric. I think it's a bit more of a general, fuzzy sense of broad political affinity, but you've covered pretty well why a generic center-right Dutchman would feel such an affinity with Hillary as well.

And of course, you're right, there's no reason to overestimate how much West-Europeans know about US politics either. I think part of the reason Hillary did so well versus Bernie in that Dutch poll about the Democratic primary is just that a lot of left-wing people who might have supported Bernie if they'd delved into policy positions etc just hadn't paid enough attention to have much of an opinion about the race, and went with the safe choice they knew.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Aug, 2016 07:28 pm
Last April YouGov did have this data:

Quote:
YouGov research for Handelsblatt Global Edition across the G20 group of nations reveals that Donald Trump is the preferred choice for US President in only one country: Russia

New YouGov research of over 20,000 adults in every G20 country for Handelsblatt Global Edition reveals Russia is the only country of the G20 major economies where people would rather Donald Trump was the next President of the US than Hillary Clinton. And by a long way – Trump leads Clinton by 21 points in Russia, while Hillary has a lead of more than 21 points over Trump in 15 other countries.

Perhaps least surprisingly of all, Hillary Clinton's lead over Mr Trump is highest in Mexico, the country which a President Trump would screen behind a concrete wall along the US southern border. She leads Trump there by 54 points, scores ahead of the other G20 countries.


https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/15707/HandelsRus4.png
Blickers
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Aug, 2016 08:03 pm
@nimh,
Putin loves him some Trump, no question. Here are are Vlad's words:
Quote:
He is a bright and talented person without any doubt," Putin said, adding that Trump is "an outstanding and talented personality."
And in remarks closely mirroring Trump's assessment of the campaign, the Russian leader called Trump "the absolute leader of the presidential race," according to the Russian TASS news agency.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/17/politics/russia-putin-trump/

Of course, since Trump is all set to carry out Putin's foreign policy and have the US withdraw from NATO, leaving Russia free to move in the tanks and take back their Eastern European Empire, it is not surprising Putin has such kind words for Trump.
0 Replies
 
 

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