4
   

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight EC Map

 
 
JPB
 
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2016 06:19 am
I stopped watching TV news coverage of elections in the summer of 2012 when one of the talking heads admitted that they basically shill bs in order to keep us glued to our seats and engaged in the anxiety of who is going to win.

I'd been following InTrade's EC prediction map all summer and it was clear that Obama was going to win easily in November. The bookies have a pretty good handle on what's real and what's not.

InTrade is no longer in business, but Nate Silver (who is slightly less accurate than the bookies, imo) has released an EC prediction map based on his own modeling. He currently shows HRC winning easily in November. I'm liking that Gary Johnson is pulling nearly 8% of the popular vote. I hope to see that number get above 15% in the national polls so that he'll be eligible for the very rigged debates.

It's interesting that he shows AZ and MO as nearly tossups. I would expect both of them to be red. It will be interesting to watch this as the weeks/months proceed.

Map

edit: I posted this earlier and it was removed. I have no idea why and have contacted the mods for an explanation. I'm going to go with the assumption that it was scrubbed by mistake and try again. If they pull it again then I'm really, really dumbfounded how this might violate to TOS.
 
Lash
 
  0  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2016 06:44 am
I hope a mod can speak to how this post could be scrubbed. Appreciation for your diligence to re-post it, JPB.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  3  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2016 08:16 am
@JPB,
Interesting map. Thanks for linking it.
0 Replies
 
revelette2
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2016 09:34 am
I'm glad the site is keeping up with the general, I worried like the rest of us, they have lost interest. Sometimes I get the feeling everyone is waiting for word on whether Clinton is going to be indicted or not. If she is not, then, it is all over. If she is, crazy times are ahead.
RABEL222
 
  1  
Reply Thu 30 Jun, 2016 09:53 pm
@revelette2,
I am beginning to wonder if the FBI is playing political games the way they did when that crook Hoover was their head.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Jul, 2016 01:06 pm
HRC has dropped 10 percentage points in the past two weeks. She was 80/20, not it's 70/30. Polls of some swing states show them tied or DT winning as of today.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
revelette2
 
  1  
Reply Wed 13 Jul, 2016 03:56 pm
@JPB,
After the wording from the announcement to not recommend Hillary Clinton to be indicted, it is not too surprising her numbers went down. It is hard to get away from the way he worded it as "great carelessness."

It would have better had he just said he does not recommend she be indicted and left it at that. He vilified her while saying she was innocent of wrong doing.
Lash
 
  0  
Reply Wed 13 Jul, 2016 03:59 pm
@revelette2,
Because she was guilty of great carelessness and hiding that from the electorate is ridiculous.
realjohnboy
 
  4  
Reply Wed 13 Jul, 2016 04:08 pm
JPB: The Quinnipiac poll out today was the big factor here. I respect them but in my mind it had same flaws.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Wed 13 Jul, 2016 05:46 pm
https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2016/07/the-sudden-shocking-fall-of-nate-silver.html
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Thu 14 Jul, 2016 04:54 am
Nate Silver put out an article last night talking about polls in general and about the Quinn-poll in particular. My eyes, per usual, glazed over.
He mentioned that the Q-poll (in FLA, OH and PA) covered a long period - from 6/30 to 7/10. That was, to me, an unusually big span of time and was a flaw.
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 14 Jul, 2016 04:57 am
@realjohnboy,
There's another problem with the Quin poll - it over samples white voters.

http://bluenationreview.com/shoddy-q-poll-strikes-again-and-media-lap-it-up/
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jul, 2016 04:59 am
@ehBeth,
I really wish the InTrade EC map was still available.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jul, 2016 05:01 am
@ehBeth,
He's still projecting the DT will get 43% of the popular vote. I think that's nuts.
0 Replies
 
revelette2
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jul, 2016 06:00 am
The bottom line is it is going to be a close race. Guess we should have figured it as both (undeservedly so in my opinion with Clinton) have high unfavorable ratings and then the FBI thing came out last week.

Some New Polls Show a Tightening — Even Close — White House Race. Is That the Real Story?

Quote:
For now, everyone should get over their "shock" at this or that poll showing that yes, it's a relatively close race, and no, we cannot promise you Donald Trump's chances of becoming president are zero. For now at least, get used to it.


(bottom last paragraph)

Scary thought. I still think there was no need for Comey to add clarifiers in his announcement.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  3  
Reply Thu 14 Jul, 2016 06:09 am
Real Clear Politics (RCP) has an Electoral College thingee based on their estimate of the count based on a compilation of recent polls.
There is a feature there that allows players to develop their own maps/counts.
revelette2
 
  1  
Reply Thu 14 Jul, 2016 08:22 am
Well today on 538, it has Clinton at 62.2 / Trump 33.7. As long as Clinton can keep it at around there give or take either way until the convention and if the convention goes well (please Berners, stay away for the sake of not having Trump for president) Clinton should get a pretty good bump which will hopefully go a long way towards erasing the wording of the FBI announcement. I can hope anyway.

I am not sure if the following has already been posted but:

Election Update: When To Freak Out About Shocking New Polls
0 Replies
 
RABEL222
 
  2  
Reply Thu 14 Jul, 2016 04:38 pm
@Lash,
As was 90% of your hero republicans.
Lash
 
  -3  
Reply Thu 14 Jul, 2016 09:01 pm
@RABEL222,
They're not running for president.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 15 Jul, 2016 03:52 am
@realjohnboy,
Here's a link to RCP's map. Unlike Silver's, they don't call every state and show 165 EC votes still too close to call.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
0 Replies
 
 

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