@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
My concern is that Trump will do better than I and everyone else expected in the general election
Yeah. I mean, you're obviously not alone in that worry. But I can't say I quite get it - even though I'm usually an incorrigible pessimist. Some of the commenters who warn about how Trump will overperform expectations say, look at how he did better in the primaries than everyone expected, he could surprise again in the general election. But the "everyone" in that sentence refers to all the pundits, politicians and regular people who were dismissing the polls. Because the polls had been showing Trump in the lead - by a lot - continuously - and since very early in the campaign (
last July, in fact). The polls weren't wrong. And those same polls have pretty consistently shown Trump
well behind in the general election throughout this election season.
Quote:It's not the conservative Democrats that I'm concerned about, but the apolitical people who think that Trump is upending the system and who are inspired by his campaign.
The apolitical people who take part in elections would generally be independents, I imagine - and Trump polls horribly with independents. And a lot of the generally apolitical people who could still be spurred to vote in specific cases are women, young people, hispanics - all groups which have extremely unfavorable views of Trump, and might well be spurred to turn out this year specifically to stop him. And since you mention young people - if the polls can be trusted (and they've done allright with the global trends in the primaries), Trump's actually least popular among young voters, and most popular among the older / middle-aged. Again, who knows I suppose! I just don't see much non-anecdotal evidence for this.
Quote:Among the youth online I see (which is not necessarily representative, I know)
Indeed. :-) If the most visibly politically engaged online youth were an indicator of how elections end up, Ron Paul would have been president. :-)