Lash
 
Reply Thu 4 Feb, 2016 08:03 pm
It's a week early, but hopefully we can aggregate NH news and opinions here.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/04/politics/new-hampshire-poll-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton/index.html

Opening salvo.

Hold on to your asses, all comers. Wink
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Type: Discussion • Score: 17 • Views: 5,250 • Replies: 112

 
RABEL222
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 06:37 pm
@Lash,
You better hope so cause if he cant win this state his ass is grass! But gee wasent Iowa a shock.
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 06:39 pm
@RABEL222,
Home of ROSBORNE.
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 06:52 pm
I can't imagine any surprises on the Democrat side in New Hampshire. Mr. Sanders should win. Ms. Clinton should register.

The entertainment should be on the Republican side. None of the main candidates there seem connected in a strong way to the region so it should be fun to see what hook-ups they all try to claim.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/04/politics/new-hampshire-republican-cnn-wmur-poll/

Quote:
Donald Trump continues to hold a wide lead among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a new CNN/WMUR tracking poll, with the pack vying for second place is beginning to break up.

Behind Trump's field-leading 29% support, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio climbs to second place with 18% following his strong third place finish in Iowa, followed by Ted Cruz (13%) and John Kasich (12%) in a near-tie for third. Jeb Bush holds fifth place at 10%, a hair behind Cruz and Kasich, with Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina well behind at 4% each. The fight for second place between Cruz, Rubio and Kasich remains within the survey's margin of sampling error.

The poll was conducted entirely after the Iowa caucuses.


personally, I'd like to see Kasich and Rubio inch past Cruz. I'm not sure how the religious factor works in New Hampshire.

http://news.yahoo.com/dems-decibels-nh-debate-wall-street-common-foe-080616599--election.html

Quote:
On the rise in a tightening race, Marco Rubio shouldered intensifying attacks Friday from moderate-leaning Republicans who fear a strong Rubio showing in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary could spell the end for their frazzled presidential campaigns.

Jeb Bush and Chris Christie both accused Rubio of a lackluster set of accomplishments. Bush, campaigning with his mother, former first lady Barbara Bush, summed up the Florida senator's achievements in one word: "Nothing."


mebbe the Bush/Maine connection will play?



Quote:
For Republicans who aren't named Ted Cruz or Donald Trump, the goal in New Hampshire's upcoming primary is to finish second — at best.

That's the best outcome the establishment Republican contenders can hope for following this week's Iowa caucuses, where Cruz and Trump topped the field in a tight three-way race with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

It's a far cry from the beginning of this campaign cycle, when Jeb Bush was the acknowledged Republican front-runner and had the backing of what was presumed to be a source of power within the GOP, the Republican establishment. Now, the power of the establishment is in question, and when Bush campaigns, he acknowledges membership in that class with some good humor.

It's a matter of pedigree.

"I'm part of the establishment because I am Barbara Bush's son," he said at a recent town hall meeting in Manchester, N.H. "Well, I'm not worried about that."

For Bush, and at least two other GOP contenders, it's also about having been a governor, and about having had to solve problems rather than advance an ideology.

At the gathering at Manchester's Alpine Club, where Bush fielded questions from voters, he also advanced an establishment outlook: Republicans are about governing well — not just expressing anger.


<snip>

Quote:
He thinks Kasich and Christie could do it — but not Bush. Voters, Cullen says, have already made up their minds about Bush.

The most intriguing candidate of the moment is neither a sitting governor — like these three — nor a political bomb thrower like Trump or Cruz.

It's Marco Rubio.


<snip>

Quote:
When the Florida senator hit the national political stage six years ago, he was the darling of the newborn Tea Party. He challenged the Republican governor for the Senate nomination and won.

Once in the Senate, though, Rubio worked with Democrats on a plan for immigration reform, a plan he later walked away from.

Is he an acceptable mainstream Republican to New Hampshire primary voters? Cullen says that's a big question facing Rubio this week.


<snip>

Quote:
"Well, he's making the argument here in New Hampshire that he can unite the party, that he can appeal to Tea Party conservatives, liberty conservatives, traditional Republicans," Cullen says. "I don't think he's the only candidate who's making that argument or could do it, but the other candidates maybe are more easily identified as traditional mainstream Republicans."

Ellen Hyatt and Mary Sue Sanderson, both from Hampton, N.H., and both of whom identify themselves primarily as moms, were among those at the Rubio rally. Hyatt said the two of them have been mulling over the primary race.

"We were talking Cruz versus Rubio. And much of what they say is very similar but we really are debating very hard about what the differences are," Hyatt said.

To Sanderson, the fact that Rubio is already in D.C., and a part of the Republican establishment, is a strength. "He knows what's going on, and I think that knowing what's going on is actually a big help when you're faced with crisis decisions that need to be made," she says.


(more good stuff between the snips)
farmerman
 
  3  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 07:02 pm
Jeb suffers from the GW legacy. GW was a douche bag who got us into a costly war for trumped up reasoning and was the father of the worst economic policy since Harding.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 07:08 pm
@ehBeth,
ahhh

kind of what I was most curious about

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/02/04/in-new-hampshire-rubio-presents-himself-as-candidate-for-all-republicans/

Quote:
Rubio's attacks on his opponents come with one glaring exception: billionaire Donald Trump, who edged him for a second-place finish in Monday's caucuses. Rubio has reasoned that Trump has unveiled insufficient policy, and therefore, hasn't given him reason enough to criticize him, even though they disagree on several fundamental issues.

Instead, Rubio appears to be biding his time, quietly courting his rivals' potential voters. By doing so, he's pursuing a course of consolidation.

"He needs to coalesce the vote before he can challenge Trump," said Republican pollster Greg Strimple, who is unaligned with any of the campaigns. He said he has been impressed with what he calls the Rubio team's "message and strategic discipline."

Rubio captured headlines with his strong third-place finish in the leadoff contest Monday, finishing behind Cruz — the heavy favorite among Iowa's disproportionately influential evangelical conservatives — and less than a percentage point behind Trump, who had seesawed with Cruz between first and second place in most preference polls in Iowa.

If Rubio tops Cruz in New Hampshire's primary on Tuesday and finishes ahead of candidates such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, he will have more evidence to support a point he's been hammering for weeks: He is the candidate to unite the party.
rosborne979
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 07:29 pm
@farmerman,
farmerman wrote:
Home of ROSBORNE.

Yes, my brief moment in the spotlight Smile
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 07:30 pm
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2016/02/04/republicans-woo-centrist-women/UX2j0PisoEz77QDPgOURVI/story.html

Quote:
The Republican presidential race has seemed at times like a contest of schoolyard insults and chest-thumping machismo. With Donald J. Trump leading the way, the campaign has repeatedly descended into a kind of primal struggle among men, each seeking to outdo his rivals through brutish intimidation.

But as the race has moved to New Hampshire, its tone has quietly, but noticeably, changed: Candidates who once vied to throw the hardest rhetorical punch are campaigning in gentler terms, emphasizing their compassion and human frailty, and especially their concern for women and families.

The adjustment is no coincidence: New Hampshire women, many of them independents or moderate Republicans — some supporting abortion rights — have emerged as perhaps the most critical swing vote in the primary next week.

Tara McCarthy, 49, of Henniker, New Hampshire, said she had been deluged by overtures from the campaigns as she tried to decide between Jeb Bush, a Republican, and Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, based on the issues she sees as most relevant to women.

“I am the unicorn,” said McCarthy, who works in sales. “I am female, working, middle-aged, and independent, and it’s true — I have no fewer than five voicemails on my phone every time I get home.”
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 07:31 pm
@rosborne979,
now that you have the stage and microphone ...

0 Replies
 
rosborne979
 
  6  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 07:34 pm
For what it's worth, based on what I hear most around here, it'll be Sanders and Trump who win NH.

But in my opinion, we'll be choosing between Clinton and Rubio in November (and Clinton will win in the end to become the first woman president of the US).
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 07:37 pm
@rosborne979,
I want to know everything you hear about Rubio (he was one of my original picks for the final).
rosborne979
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 07:48 pm
@ehBeth,
Nobody is talking about Rubio around here. All the chatter is about Trump and Sanders.

But I know from listening to them (repubs and dems) speak that Rubio is very smart and smooth and sounds great on foreign policy (which is a complex arena). I think he's got a good mind for strategy which is why he will emerge through Cruz and Trump to get his party's nomination. But he's too conservative to win in a general election. And Hillary is just as sharp and slick as he is, so it comes down to middle voters, and Hillary takes those. Just my opinion, my crystal ball is no better than anyone else's.
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 08:05 pm
@rosborne979,
Can Sanders tap a Maple tree? hmmmm?

I think not!
0 Replies
 
Blickers
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 09:16 pm
Rubio is scary, from the Democratic point of view. He's Hispanic, which endangers the big plurality the Dems need in the Hispanic vote. And he seems nice, putting him apart from most of the other Republican candidates. He's conservative, but I worry the right campaign can show him in just the right light. About the only weakness that I think he MIGHT have is that if he runs against Hillary, Rubio seems so polite that Hillary will make a bigger impression just on general knowledge.
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Feb, 2016 09:29 pm
@Blickers,
that's why he was on my list

either in the first or second seat, he'll pull in voters
0 Replies
 
jcboy
 
  5  
Reply Sun 7 Feb, 2016 03:21 pm
I'm going with Nate Silver on this and I think Hillary will lose New Hampshire but win everywhere else. Bernie will get a "bump in the bern" for a few days and then reality will come crashing back down. Cool
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Sun 7 Feb, 2016 06:33 pm
what the hell was going on with Rubio and his repeating of sentences/sentence fragments?

Christie nailed his (Rubio's) robospeech thing.

and the entrance ... bizarre

why wouldn't Carson listen to the people behind the curtains telling him to go out?

and Kasich. They almost started the whole thing without him.
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Feb, 2016 05:48 am
This is hilarious. I remember an episode of West Wing wherein Pres. Bartlet was worried about his Republican opponent's smooth 10 word soundbite set to be delivered in their debate. Didn't know what it would be, but the Rep. was famous for them. (Barbra Streisand's husband)

So Christie's team must have seen it coming...and Christie had the nerve to call him on it. Had Rubio pivoted, he could've capitalized, but he doggedly proved Christie's point about three times. Really must've liked that soundbite.

The think I hate, though, is a con like Christie making hay over just basically being an apt zinger. For the GOP crowd these days, that seems to be qualification enough.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/07/marco-rubio-republican-debate-repeat-line-chris-christie
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 9 Feb, 2016 07:30 pm
@ehBeth,
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-republican/#polls-only

Looks like Rubio is still in second place as of this morning (and has halted his post-debate plummet).

Second through fifth place are really close though, so nothing is certain at this point.

Only a few more hours until we know definitively though.
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 9 Feb, 2016 07:40 pm
@oralloy,
It does look like (from my previous link) the two very last polls, which are no earlier than Feb 7, show Kasich moving into second place over Rubio.

I like Kasich, but I don't think he can win the votes of most conservatives. If he topples Rubio tonight, that might mean Trump wins the nomination.
0 Replies
 
 

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