jcboy
 
  3  
Reply Wed 10 Feb, 2016 04:58 pm
I wonder who the nominees would be if we had California, Texas, Florida, and New York all vote together on Day 1 of primary season. Enough with letting the fringe extremists in Iowa and New Hampshire set the tone for the entire nominating process. Next up: 2 more irrelevant states, South Carolina and Nevada. Woo! Cool

I guess the lack of seatbelt and helmet laws in New Hampshire has led to increased rates of brain damage, therefore Donald Trump won the Republican primary. This isn't like "Oh, that's silly. They voted for Bush." No, this is more like, "Wow, these people are seriously impaired mentally and possibly huffed gasoline before voting.

On the bright side, John Kasich finished ahead of Bush, Rubio, and Cruz! I think Christie, Fiorina, and Carson will be aborting their campaigns now. I'll provide the hanger.
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Wed 10 Feb, 2016 05:08 pm
@McGentrix,
McGentrix wrote:
Do you think Trump is all bombs and rhetoric?


Yes I do not think this is an act, I think he cannot help but lash out this way.

Quote:
Do you suppose that beneath the bombastic exterior a shrewd businessman that has made a career of wheeling, dealing and negotiating might be hiding?


I don't know much about his business decisions and whether or not he was shrewd (or rather just how so). Most successful people are a bit of both. Shrewd enough to capitalize on opportunity (or just not bungle it) but success is typically much more influenced by opportunities (situational factors) than dispositional ones.

Every great man in history owes more to luck than disposition. Not a knock on any of them but if Steve Jobs were born a few years differently or ended up in a different location he is unlikely to have changed the world. And there are hundreds of thousands of people just as shrewd or more as these men who will live average lives because success of that magnitude is to be both talented and struck by lightning.

Trump is probably not a complete business idiot, but his success is likely just as attributable to being worth a million dollars (in today's money) when he graduated college due to rich parents.

But what I'm referring to is that I sincerely believe Trump cannot restrain himself from responding to any slight. That anyone who wants to can get into a stupid game of "I know you are but what am I" with him.

While he must know that at this point embracing the controversy is a way to make money (in reality shows etc) I do not think it's an act at all. I do not think Trump can feel slighted without going nuclear and acting like a total idiot.

His over the top attacks on Fox in general and specifically to Megyn Kelly are a recent example. It was nonsensical, not good strategy, not good campaigning and was just an example of him not having any reaction other than that.

He's been that way consistently for decades, across various careers. This suggests to me that it is not strategic (the same stupid strategy can't work for everything) or an act and that he legitimately can't help but go over the top on any slight he feels.

Quote:
I think Trump will do about as well with foreign diplomacy as anyone running. I think he may go back to wielding a big stick as opposed to Obama's throwing the stick away and carrying around an apology mat.


Man this deserves an essay of a response but I am gonna limit it to this, the apology sound byte works well as political mud to sling but realistically the foreign policy things Obama is criticized for are things about which there really are no good solutions. ISIS, Syria, Ukraine etc are really cases where America and the entire world are really powerless to act because there simply are no good options. They are all just as bad right now.

In that case it is wise to refrain from getting involved. If we didn't waste all that war weariness and money and lives in Iraq we could do something serious about ISIS etc but as much as people like to mock Obama for not crushing them America has no appetite for what it would take.

And when there have been things Obama can do with the military he certainly has not shied from it, deploying increased drone warfare, cyber warfare and things like the Osama strike. He's definitely no dove, he ramped UP some of the things from Bush (namely more covert stuff with drones etc while the boots on the ground receded).

He's standing up to China in the South China Sea. Just last week we just navigated a destroyer through on a "freedom of navigation" mission through seas they claim as theirs just to assert naval dominance over the shipping lanes in the face of their territorial claims. That is all part of a pivot towards Asia and countering the rise of China.

I'm no fan of much of Obama's foreign policy, there are parts of it that I would like to see him incarcerated for. But the "apology mat" criticism is really baseless, America's influence is in decline and it is not because of who the president is. It is on a trajectory where this will continue regardless of what we do right now and that's why it resonates with many people who simply ascribe it to a timid Obama and not the inevitable economic rise of Asia and other factors completely out of American control that are contributing to a slight reduction in global power.



But, I think America's soft power will be as strong as it is now for sure, but more likely stronger.
[/quote]
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Wed 10 Feb, 2016 05:11 pm
@jcboy,
If the bigger states went first they would lack the ability to see more of how the candidates perform and would have less informed decisions. I like that they go last, the biggest races have the most information to make their decisions with.

On a side note, decrying the smaller states as brain damaged extremists due to seatbelt laws makes you sound quite like what you are talking about (an extremist).
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Feb, 2016 05:24 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
I was largely absent for about 5 - 6 years if my memory serves. A lot happened in that time... Wink

So, the answer: pretty much. Yep.
roger
 
  2  
Reply Wed 10 Feb, 2016 05:31 pm
@Lash,
Aw, I saw you skidding of the left side of the road when you were giving opinions on educational theory while teaching in California.
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Feb, 2016 05:35 pm
@roger,
LOL! A co-teacher and I were talking about that very thing today of all things. Feels very nice you noticed.

0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 04:06 am
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
Finn dAbuzz wrote:
It was unbelievable, but whether or not it completely derails his candidacy remains to be seen. Remember, the man who was "no Jack Kennedy" became VP, and not the prig who delivered that line.

I wasn't alive then and didn't know that. I have the vague memory that this destroyed his political campaign but can easily be wrong about that.

As the VP candidate he didn't have much of a campaign to begin with. The main campaign was between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 04:07 am
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
All the stuff Trump talks about in trade ("beating China" etc). We have negotiations with thousands of different entities all the time, we can't just bomb them all into doing what we want so we pursue our interests other ways, getting votes to support us in international bodies, negotiating treaties etc.

It will certainly be better for the US if we have more open trade with the world. But I think the world benefits even more than the US does.

Conversely, I think the world will suffer even more than the US if there is a lack of trade.

Anyway, bad news on the trade front. Trump plans to destroy global free trade. I don't like that idea very much, but there isn't much that I can do about it.


Robert Gentel wrote:
For example, the Iran nuke issue is just not something we can tenably deal with with hard power alone. Netanyahu is correct to say we are probably bluffing there because resorting to military means to degrade the Iranian nuclear program would probably be a stupid idea that doesn't do much good and has potential for a LOT of bad.

I certainly favor trying negotiations before we bomb. The Iraq war, in retrospect, makes it pretty clear that having UN inspectors crawling all over a country is actually very effective at curtailing WMD programs.

But if we had failed in the negotiations and had no other way of stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons, I don't see why bombing wouldn't have worked as a last resort.
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 04:36 am
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
Man this deserves an essay of a response but I am gonna limit it to this, the apology sound byte works well as political mud to sling but realistically the foreign policy things Obama is criticized for are things about which there really are no good solutions. ISIS, Syria, Ukraine etc are really cases where America and the entire world are really powerless to act because there simply are no good options. They are all just as bad right now.

What do you think we should do about Russia verses the EU Baltic states? If we wait until Putin actually invades them like he did with Georgia and Ukraine, we'll have direct warfare between Russia and the US, with the serious risk of that escalating into a nuclear war.

If we station troops in the Baltic states (i.e. near Russia's border), that will make Putin build up troops on his side of the border and we'll have a new Cold War. But a new Cold War would be preferable to a nuclear war.

If we buff up Ukraine (and perhaps Moldova) so that Russia is too busy fighting there to worry about invading yet another country, that should postpone Putin's invasion of the Baltics for a good while. But greater involvement in Ukraine might also suck the US into a direct conflict with Russia if we aren't very careful to control how we escalate.


Robert Gentel wrote:
I'm no fan of much of Obama's foreign policy, there are parts of it that I would like to see him incarcerated for.

Has Mr. Obama committed any crimes?


Robert Gentel wrote:
But the "apology mat" criticism is really baseless, America's influence is in decline and it is not because of who the president is. It is on a trajectory where this will continue regardless of what we do right now and that's why it resonates with many people who simply ascribe it to a timid Obama and not the inevitable economic rise of Asia and other factors completely out of American control that are contributing to a slight reduction in global power.

I don't believe that our power is waning.

If someplace like China becomes a world power, I do not believe that it will reduce America's power.

We shared the world with the Soviets during the Cold War. Were we less powerful then?
Lash
 
  0  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 05:47 am
Obama has increased drone assassinations and NSA spying on us.
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 06:00 am
Exit polling paints very unattractive portrait of HRC.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/10/hillary-clinton-has-a-major-honesty-problem-after-new-hampshire/?tid=sm_tw
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 06:12 am
@Lash,
Lash wrote:
Obama has increased drone assassinations

We're at war with the groups that carried out 9/11. Our soldiers have the lawful right to fire on enemy militants.


Lash wrote:
and NSA spying on us.

The NSA is trying to discover terrorists who are trying to kill us.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 11:29 am
@Lash,
Lash wrote:

I was largely absent for about 5 - 6 years if my memory serves. A lot happened in that time... Wink

So, the answer: pretty much. Yep.


Well then I'm sorry for the misfortunes you suffered over that period, because they had to be awful if, in the aftermath, you found yourself yearning for The Bern. Cool

At least, like Arianna Huffington, you moved all the way to the Left. I would have had to put you on "ignore" if your transformation left you a Clinton supporter.

Since "Lash" is so closely associated with a conservative A2K persona, and your metamorphosis has been so complete, perhaps you should consider changing your screen name. We could start a thread and invite suggestions, but it would be helpful if you explained the origins of your current moniker. Whenever I saw it, I thought of a particular video game character, until I realized the character I was thinking of was actually named "Ivy" (she employed a lash as a weapon). With this and the association of "lash" and capitalism in mind, I suggest a change to "Scythe"



0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 12:12 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:
What do you think we should do about Russia verses the EU Baltic states?


Not much we can do, it's the EU themselves who are not willing to go as far as we are with sanctions due to their dependency on Russia for energy.

We wanted to do what the world (and the EU) should have done, stiffer economic sanctions. But ultimately it's the EU buying their energy, and the EU who was not willing to go as far. That's on them, not the US.

Quote:
If we wait until Putin actually invades them like he did with Georgia and Ukraine, we'll have direct warfare between Russia and the US, with the serious risk of that escalating into a nuclear war.


Good thing that's just not ever going to happen. Putin is not an idiot, he is pushing as far as he can get away with. He is not ever going to "invade" the EU.

Quote:
If we station troops in the Baltic states (i.e. near Russia's border), that will make Putin build up troops on his side of the border and we'll have a new Cold War. But a new Cold War would be preferable to a nuclear war.


There's no need to station troops in the Baltic states. We are not willing to go to war with Russia over what they have done in Georgia and Ukraine and that is not going to change in your lifetime as long as they stick to that and do not escalate.

They too do not want a war, and will stick to such things that we will not be willing to go to war with them over.

Quote:
If we buff up Ukraine (and perhaps Moldova) so that Russia is too busy fighting there to worry about invading yet another country, that should postpone Putin's invasion of the Baltics for a good while. But greater involvement in Ukraine might also suck the US into a direct conflict with Russia if we aren't very careful to control how we escalate.


Which is why we will not do so, or get too involved other than to propose sanctions. We simply do not care enough about Ukraine as an ally to be wiling to defend them at war (it would take whole scale invasion of the entire countries for us to consider it and even then I don't think we go to war first, I think the world does sanctions).

Quote:
Has Mr. Obama committed any crimes?


My main objection is that he's killed at least 7 American citizens by drone strikes. Some were non-targeted (especially the hostages killed, obviously) but there have been admittedly targeted ones.

The justice department has declared it legal so far, but his targeted killing of American citizens by drones violates due process. Without much information I do not know if they are justified, for example if they were not responsible for anyone's deaths, and their crime is, say, doing PR campaigns for extremists I do not see their threat as worthy of such targeted killings.

And I think that drone signature strike strategy is reckless to the point that it ought to be considered criminal if it is not. It is the killing of people whose identities are unknown based on a observed pattern of activity. It is what has resulted in deaths of hostages, and of the bombings of funerals and of rescuers (the "double tap" bombing of rescuers is especially troubling).

I haven't cited any of this because I assume this is common knowledge to you but can cite each of the claims, if needed.

Quote:
I don't believe that our power is waning.


It is, and it's not the end of the world. It will ebb and flow.

Quote:
If someplace like China becomes a world power, I do not believe that it will reduce America's power.


But it does.

Quote:
We shared the world with the Soviets during the Cold War. Were we less powerful then?


Yes. Power is relative. The USA was less powerful yes, in the era of dual super-powers vs in the era it is exiting where it was the sole superpower.

In the cold war the world was bipolar and it became a unipolar world with American hegemony. That's what the neoconservatives behind the Project for the New American Century were on about. "We are more powerful than ever, now let's project power and stay that way!"

Anyway, nothing lasts forever and right now after Afghanistan and Iraq and our economic crisis yes we are weaker now than we were before. China is rising as an economic power, Russia is rising again as a military power and we are going to enjoy less hegemony than we have since the end of the cold war.

This does not mean the US is not powerful and it is not that big a deal. We couldn't expect to be the only superpower forever and should expect the rise of Asia to decrease our global influence as it is gradually doing. Our pivot to Asia will keep us relevant and we are still going to be the most powerful military for the rest of your life, and by some measures the most powerful economy and country. But the period after the cold war till now was the peak of America's power in your lifetime.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 12:43 pm
Clinton and Sanders fight to a virtual tie in Iowa and Clinton walks away with 29 delegates and Sanders gets 21.

Sanders trounces Clinton in New Hampshire and he gets 15 delegates while she gets...15!

What's wrong with this picture?

If you answered "Super Delegates," you win a prize, but nothing like the one Clinton is getting.

In New Hampshire, the votes of Gov. Maggie Hassan, Rep. Ann Kustler, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and three members of the DNC count the same as 60,631 votes from regular Democrat stiffs in the Granite State.

Hey Berners! Still think your guy can win the nomination?
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 12:57 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
claim yer cigar.
0 Replies
 
maxdancona
 
  2  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 01:02 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
Hey Berners! Still think your guy can win the nomination?


Yes, I do. The revolution will be televised.

If Bernie starts winning the majority of the states, there will be an awful lot of pressure on these "super" delegates and on the party in general. A lot of Hillary's superdelegates ended up voting for Obama in 2008.

This election isn't happening behind closed doors. It is out in the open for everyone to see.

oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 01:38 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
Good thing that's just not ever going to happen. Putin is not an idiot, he is pushing as far as he can get away with. He is not ever going to "invade" the EU.

I think you are misreading Putin. He thinks that the US and EU are weak and will do nothing if he invades the Baltic states. And I'm pretty sure he fully intends to invade the Baltic states once he is finished with Ukraine and Moldova.


Robert Gentel wrote:
There's no need to station troops in the Baltic states. We are not willing to go to war with Russia over what they have done in Georgia and Ukraine and that is not going to change in your lifetime as long as they stick to that and do not escalate.

But we ARE willing to go to war over a Russian invasion of the Baltic states.

We are even willing to escalate to nuclear weapons if we can't repel the invasion with conventional weapons.


Robert Gentel wrote:
Which is why we will not do so, or get too involved other than to propose sanctions. We simply do not care enough about Ukraine as an ally to be wiling to defend them at war (it would take whole scale invasion of the entire countries for us to consider it and even then I don't think we go to war first, I think the world does sanctions).

I didn't suggest that we defend Ukraine ourselves -- the idea was buffing their own abilities up so that they are able to bog Russia down in endless war.

If we don't tie Russia down in Ukraine, and if we don't station troops in the Baltics, those of us who live in rural areas should start preparing fallout shelters for after the nuclear war.


Robert Gentel wrote:
My main objection is that he's killed at least 7 American citizens by drone strikes. Some were non-targeted (especially the hostages killed, obviously) but there have been admittedly targeted ones.

The justice department has declared it legal so far, but his targeted killing of American citizens by drones violates due process. Without much information I do not know if they are justified, for example if they were not responsible for anyone's deaths, and their crime is, say, doing PR campaigns for extremists I do not see their threat as worthy of such targeted killings.

And I think that drone signature strike strategy is reckless to the point that it ought to be considered criminal if it is not. It is the killing of people whose identities are unknown based on a observed pattern of activity. It is what has resulted in deaths of hostages, and of the bombings of funerals and of rescuers (the "double tap" bombing of rescuers is especially troubling).

I haven't cited any of this because I assume this is common knowledge to you but can cite each of the claims, if needed.

What due process? It's war. Our soldiers fire on the enemy.

Not every alleged American dronestrike is actually an American dronestrike by the way. People in the Pakistani tribal areas refer to Pakistani military helicopters as American drones.


Robert Gentel wrote:
Yes. Power is relative. The USA was less powerful yes, in the era of dual super-powers vs in the era it is exiting where it was the sole superpower.

I see power differently. I measure US power based on what we can achieve, regardless of whether someone else can also achieve the same thing.
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 02:20 pm
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:
What due process? It's war. Our soldiers fire on the enemy.


Where do you draw the line at which someone becomes a combatant in a war? The first one they killed, as far as I am aware, was mostly involved in publishing magazines and articles recruiting extremists till then. They said he was plotting attacks and he certainly was someone who was up to no good but at which point are they legitimate targets in a war?

Quote:
Not every alleged American dronestrike is actually an American dronestrike by the way. People in the Pakistani tribal areas refer to Pakistani military helicopters as American drones.


The incidents I am talking about are under no dispute. The US has admitted to being responsible for them.

Quote:
I see power differently. I measure US power based on what we can achieve, regardless of whether someone else can also achieve the same thing.


By definition, if someone else can achieve the same thing then something we can no longer achieve is hegemony.

I think you are basically just saying you are emotionally ok with our levels of power and I don't see any problem with that. We aren't going anywhere anytime soon, even if you don't want to acknowledge that our power is ebbing from its peak.
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 11 Feb, 2016 11:13 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
Where do you draw the line at which someone becomes a combatant in a war? The first one they killed, as far as I am aware, was mostly involved in publishing magazines and articles recruiting extremists till then. They said he was plotting attacks and he certainly was someone who was up to no good but at which point are they legitimate targets in a war?

I'm not sure. But I think those signature strikes where we bomb without knowing who we are hitting are responsible for most of the damage we've done to al-Qa'ida, and al-Qa'ida might be a much more serious threat right now if we hadn't carried them out.


Robert Gentel wrote:
By definition, if someone else can achieve the same thing then something we can no longer achieve is hegemony.

I think you are basically just saying you are emotionally ok with our levels of power and I don't see any problem with that. We aren't going anywhere anytime soon, even if you don't want to acknowledge that our power is ebbing from its peak.

That wasn't what I was saying, but it is very true that I'm satisfied with our current level of power.

I grew up at the end of the Cold War, so I am used to the US as one superpower in a world with more than one superpower. When we entered our phase of alleged hegemony, I didn't feel any more powerful. It was nice to no longer be under the continuous threat of nuclear annihilation at any moment, but you sort of learned to put that at the back of your mind and go on with your life without dwelling on it, so it wasn't a huge change. As far as hegemony goes, the US did not want to dominate the world, and I didn't want the US to dominate the world, so the fact that there was no one around to oppose us really didn't matter.

If in the future we return to a world where there is another power capable of opposing us, to me that'll just be business as usual. We'll still have enough power to hold our own. The fact that we no longer will be able to single-handedly dominate the entire world won't matter much to me, because that's something I never cared about doing to begin with.
 

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