@Olivier5,
Don't underestimate the stupidity of the American voter!
Now with Cruz having to deal with his mother's birth certificate and the tea parties disgrace - after all he's of Cuban descent and not white, Cruz will fall way behind where Rubio and Bush are hovering around. Fiorina and Rand are on their way out. Carlson? Not even his wife could take him seriously, so the only one left is Trump.
Frankly, he represents today's American trend of the know-it-all-in-your-face rich people who haven't accomplished much except accumulated money with shady deals. He's the male Kardashian and why everyone wonders how these people can even be famous, they still flock to them like feathers to the goose.
It's a phenomenon only existent in the United States. I am pretty certain he'll win the nomination.