Who do you think will be the next president of the United States?

I think of this year as phantasmagoria, and I'm not a fantasy fan at the best of times. Regular life interests me enough, a bias of mine.

Words like that are no help, I know better and that is just blowing anxiety off.

Still, either by reality or just by media, I'm seeing people and views I'd little imagined.

Yesterday I read a poll on Mexicans' opinions on US politics.

6% of Mexicans have a positive opinion of Donald Trump
70% have a negative opinion
24% don't know him

That 6% befuddles me.

Why is Trump, a loudmouthed racist misogynist homophobe so popular with the Republican electorate?Ooh! Ooh! I want to play!
Here are the reasons bandied about in the media:
1. "people are so fed up with the status quo, and want someone different - an outsider"
2. "Trump speaks his mind and people like the refreshing honesty"

And here's one I think is true, but don't think the MSM can say out loud:
3. Racists, homophobes and misogynists with little education see someone they think is one of them and want him to lead them back into preeminence.

Waitaminute.... lemme chew on it a bit... ok I got it... I pick Number 3!

I know. Increasingly, I find I am placing my hopes for the future with dolphins.

Hey, this might be a scoop! Blatham, do you have inside information of a fast rising young dolphin about to hit the political scene?

Dolphins are smart. Not a bad choice.
http://news.discovery.com/animals/dolphin-intelligence-explained.htm

Indeed!

But to be fair, when I was living down in Texas, at least 6% of the TV shows intended for a Mexican-American audience befuddled me.

whhhiizzzuuuuuuvvvvvsvoopvoopsfsssh

I'm reminded of Asimov's Foundation trilogy, at the points when the remnant of an old order that is about to be swept away is still acting like they have a future.

Poignant.

Oh well. Let's get on with the future.

How typical of you to base your prediction totally on a work of fiction. Reality 's always bites you in the ass, oralloy. Trump will never be president. Americans are smarter than that, fortunately., and he's far too obnoxious and alienates far too many people in wholesale lots.

Whoever it is will be way worse then the last one...

That's because most people can see through his bluster of "me." He doesn't know what "reality" is, because he thinks he's god's gift to man.

Not sure if I've made my prediction here yet, though after the last election I predicted a Hillary victory next, and I stand by that.

I think that Trump vs Hillary will be closer than I had expected this race to be, Trump was not something I could have predicted but I still think he loses in the general election as things stand (barring crazy surprises).

I agree. I don't see how Trump can do well in states like CA.

I agree, and am distinctly disturbed with how often I've been agreeing with snood this past several months.

Why disturbed? Other than the times he's cussing me out out of the blue I generally agree with him and find him one of the more thoughtful members here.

Edit: is it disturbed because it's a hard Republican reality to face?

This sounds an awful lot like the way that many Republicans, from Chris Christie to Jeff Sessions, are now describing Donald Trump.

No it doesn't. Trump is not ever described as a thoughtful person.

Like an indictment or in the alternative, mass resignations among FBI staff?

I know of absolutely no one who predicted Trump's performance correctly or who even came close. I actually know of no one who thought he'd even carry through on his threat to run.

My guess on the final outcome matches yours. Trump will not be helped by the plethora of devastatingly negative commentary about him that has been spoken or published from key Republicans/conservatives over the last few months (Hillary's people will be certain to push that into view over and over). He won't be helped by the extremity of his voiced and tweeted bigotry (another gold mine for Hillary's people). And he'll be saying/writing more of it.

But already, as of last night, we can see him softening his tone. Post-convention, he will etch-a-sketch himself into what he perceives to be his necessary image. And he's pretty damned talented at this along with his mastery of messaging supremacy (filling up the media space and dramatically over-riding other memes/messages).

Debates with Hillary will be interesting to watch. Stylistically, they are something close to opposites as they are intellectually. But Trump will be well aware of his disadvantages in this situation and will devise/evolve strategies to help him appear Alpha dominant (his key presentation of self) and to forward the idea that he's an independent and fresh-thinking rogue outsider, in contrast to Hillary as insider shill and puppet. On the other hand, as that 11 hour grilling by the GOP Benghazi doofuses demonstrated, Hillary does not easily lose her cool and she's very, very bright.

Dems and Hillary's camp would be foolish to imagine him as a pushover even in the general election because he's a uniquely talented meglomaniac and con artist. But I think the chances of him winning a general are far less than the chances of him wreaking the sort of electoral havoc that GOP strategists fear.