THE US, THE UN AND THE IRAQIS THEMSELVES, V. 7.0

In later years, after the Communists were firmly in power in Vietnam, they admitted that the Tet offensive was a military disaster for them. In a 1995 interview in the Wall Street Journal, a Communist official stated frankly that the key to their victory was the American home front, and that they were encouraged to fight on by all the anti-war demonstrations in the United States
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=23268&highlight=

Sistani and others will be trying to insure a rapid departure for our troops .... after all, the U.S. presence is the reason for the insurgency.
Why do you believe this is the reason? Why do you reject the reason for the insurgency (I call it subversion) to be the desire of the subversives to recover their declining/lost tyrannical power.
Bush will say 'ok I'll send 5000 home but because of Syria and Iran's hostile stature he won't feel it would be a good move if he were to yank everyone.
Why do you believe this stuff? Bush has already stated that the extra 12,000 troops brought in to help protect the Iraqi election are going home now.
This will go back and forth til about the middle of March .... all this time the Sunnis will continue to extract thier pound of flesh from our troops in payback for Falluja. Sistani will call for a peaceful protest and a million or so Shiites will hit the streets. Bush will pull another 'bring em on' stunt ..... and they will .... hundreds of thousands of Sunni and Shias will try to convince George that pulling out might be the best thing .......... what will George do?
Your statement is more hymnal-like Bunkum Slop. Bush has already said several times that we will remove our troops from Iraq when the Iraqi government asks us to leave. Why do you think otherwise? I bet we will be asked to leave after the Iraqi Assembly presents a Constitution to the Iraqi voters that they approve, and after the new Iraqi government is elected under that Constitution, and after that new Iraqi government decides it can handle the subversives by itself without US help. The new Constitutional Iraqi government is scheduled to be accomplished by the end of this year.

Groceries and Election Results...
Yesterday, one of our neighbors stopped by the house. She was carrying a hot plate of some green beans in a tomato sauce. "Abu Ammar has some wonderful green beans," she confided. "But you have to tell him to give you some of the ones he hides under the table- the ones on display are a little bit chewy." I added green beans to the grocery list and headed off with E. to Abu Ammar.

Our local grocer, Abu Ammar has a vegetable and fruit stand set up about 400 m away from our house, on the main street. He has been there for as long as anyone can remember and although you would not know it to see him, Abu Ammar is quite the entrepreneur. He wears a traditional dishdasha all year round and on cold days, a worn leather jacket and a black wool cap he pulls down over his ears.

We, and almost every house on the street, buy our groceries from him. He sets up his stand early in the morning and when you pass it by at just the right time, there's a myriad of colors: the even brown of potatoes, deep green of spinach, bright orange of citrus fruits and the glossy red of sweet Iraqi tomatoes… And Abu Ammar is almost always there- come rain or sun or war, sitting in the midst of his vegetables and fruits, going through a newspaper, a cigarette in his mouth and crackling out of his little transistor radio are the warm tones of Fayrouz. On those rare occasions when Abu Ammar isn't there, you can tell something is very wrong.

Abu Ammar sat there in his usual place. I could tell he was doing a crossword today because he kept making marks on the newspaper. Abu Ammar rose to greet us and handed me a few plastic bags so I could pick and choose the vegetables I wanted. "I have some very good lemons today," he declared, tucking the newspaper under his arm and pointing to a pyramid of small greenish-yellow fruits. I wandered over to the lemons and inspected them critically.

I feel like I have my finger on the throbbing pulse of the Iraqi political situation every time I visit Abu Ammar. You can often tell just how things are going in the country from the produce available at his stand. For example, when he doesn't have any good tomatoes we know that the roads to Basra are either closed or really bad and the tomatoes aren't getting through to Baghdad. When citrus fruit isn't available during the winter months, we know that the roads to Diyala are probably risky and oranges and lemons couldn't be delivered. He'll also give you the main news headlines he picks up from various radio stations and if you feel so inclined, you can read the headlines from any one of the assorted newspapers lying in a pile near his feet. Plus, he has all of the neighborhood gossip.

"Did you know Abu Hamid's family are going to move?" He took a drag from the cigarette and pointed with his ballpoint pen towards a house about 100 m away from his stand.
"Really?" I asked, turning my attention to the tomatoes, "How did you hear?"
"I saw them showing the house to a couple last week and then I saw them showing it again this week… they're trying to sell it."

"Did you hear about the election results?" E. asked Abu Ammar. Abu Ammar shook his head in the affirmative and squashed his cigarette with a slippered foot. "Well, we were expecting it." He shrugged his shoulders and continued, "Most Shia voted for list 169. They were blaring it out at the Husseiniya near our house the night of the elections. I was there for evening prayer." A Husseiniya is a sort of mosque for Shia. We had heard that many of them were campaigning for list 169- the Sistani-backed list.

I shook my head and sighed. "So do you still think the Americans want to turn Iraq into another America? You said last year that if we gave them a chance, Baghdad would look like New York." I said in reference to a conversation we had last year. E. gave me a wary look and tried to draw my attention to some onions, "Oh hey- look at the onions- do we have onions?"

Abu Ammar shook his head and sighed, "Well if we're New York or we're Baghdad or we're hell, it's not going to make a difference to me. I'll still sell my vegetables here."

I nodded and handed over the bags to be weighed. "Well… they're going to turn us into another Iran. You know list 169 means we might turn into Iran." Abu Ammar pondered this a moment as he put the bags on the old brass scale and adjusted the weights.

"And is Iran so bad?" He finally asked. Well no, Abu Ammar, I wanted to answer, it's not bad for *you* - you're a man… if anything your right to several temporary marriages, a few permanent ones and the right to subdue females will increase. Why should it be so bad? Instead I was silent. It's not a good thing to criticize Iran these days. I numbly reached for the bags he handed me, trying to rise out of that sinking feeling that overwhelmed me when the results were first made public.

It's not about a Sunni government or a Shia government- it's about the possibility of an Iranian-modeled Iraq. Many Shia are also appalled with the results of the elections. There's talk of Sunnis being marginalized by the elections but that isn't the situation. It's not just Sunnis- it's moderate Shia and secular people in general who have been marginalized.

The list is frightening- Da'awa, SCIRI, Chalabi, Hussein Shahristani and a whole collection of pro-Iran political figures and clerics. They are going to have a primary role in writing the new constitution. There's talk of Shari'a, or Islamic law, having a very primary role in the new constitution. The problem is, whose Shari'a? Shari'a for many Shia differs from that of Sunni Shari'a. And what about all the other religions? What about Christians and Mendiyeen?

Is anyone surprised that the same people who came along with the Americans - the same puppets who all had a go at the presidency last year - are the ones who came out on top in the elections? Jaffari, Talbani, Barazani, Hakim, Allawi, Chalabi… exiles, convicted criminals and war lords. Welcome to the new Iraq.

Ibraheim Al-Jaffari, the head of the pro-Iran Da'awa party gave an interview the other day. He tried very hard to pretend he was open-minded and that he wasn't going to turn the once-secular Iraq into a fundamentalist Shia state but the fact of the matter remains that he is the head of the Da'awa party. The same party that was responsible for some of the most infamous explosions and assassinations in Iraq during the last few decades. This is the same party that calls for an Islamic Republic modeled like Iran. Most of its members have spent a substantial amount of time in Iran.

Jaffari cannot separate himself from the ideology of his party.

Then there's Abdul Aziz Al-Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). He got to be puppet president for the month of December and what was the first thing he did? He decided overburdened, indebted Iraq owed Iran 100 billion dollars. What was the second thing he did? He tried to have the "personal status" laws that protect individuals (and especially women) eradicated.

They try to give impressive interviews to western press but the situation is wholly different on the inside. Women feel it the most. There's an almost constant pressure in Baghdad from these parties for women to cover up what little they have showing. There's a pressure in many colleges for the segregation of males and females. There are the threats, and the printed and verbal warnings, and sometimes we hear of attacks or insults.

You feel it all around you. It begins slowly and almost insidiously. You stop wearing slacks or jeans or skirts that show any leg because you don't want to be stopped in the street and lectured by someone who doesn't approve. You stop wearing short sleeves and start preferring wider shirts with a collar that will cover up some of you neck. You stop letting your hair flow because you don't want to attract attention to it. On the days when you forget to pull it back into a ponytail, you want to kick yourself and you rummage around in your handbag trying to find a hair band… hell, a rubber band to pull back your hair and make sure you attract less attention from *them*.

We were seriously discussing this situation the other day with a friend. The subject of the veil and hijab came up and I confessed my fear that while they might not make it a law, there would be enough pressure to make it a requirement for women when they leave their homes. He shrugged his shoulders and said, "Well women in Iran will tell you it's not so bad- you know that they just throw something on their heads and use makeup and go places, etc." True enough. But it wasn't like that at the beginning. It took them over two decades to be able to do that. In the eighties, women were hauled off the streets and detained or beaten for the way they dressed.

It's also not about covering the hair. I have many relatives and friends who wore a hijab before the war. It's the principle. It's having so little freedom that even your wardrobe is dictated. And wardrobe is just the tip of the iceberg. There are clerics and men who believe women shouldn't be able to work or that they shouldn't be allowed to do certain jobs or study in specific fields. Something that disturbed me about the election forms was that it indicated whether the voter was ?'male' or ?'female'- why should that matter? Could it be because in Shari'a, a women's vote or voice counts for half of that of a man? Will they implement that in the future?

Baghdad is once more shrouded in black. The buildings and even some of the houses have large black pieces of cloth hanging upon them, as if the whole city is mourning the election results. It's because of "Ashoura" or the ten days marking the beginning of the Islamic New Year but also marking the death of the Prophet's family 1400+ years ago in what is now known as Karbala. That means there are droves of religious Shia dressed in black from head to foot (sometimes with a touch of green or red) walking in the streets and beating themselves with special devices designed for this occasion.

We've been staying at home most of the time because it's not a good idea to leave the house during these ten days. It took us an hour and 20 minutes to get to my aunt's house yesterday because so many streets were closed with masses of men chanting and beating themselves. To say it is frightening is an understatement. Some of the men are even bleeding and they wear white to emphasize all the blood flowing down backs and foreheads. It's painful to see small children wearing black clothes and carrying miniature chains that really don't hurt, but look so bizarre.

Quite frankly, it's disgusting. It's a quasi political show of Sadomasochism that has nothing to do with religion. In Islam it's unfavorable to hurt the human body. Moderate Shia also find it appalling and slightly embarrassing. E. teases the Shia cousin constantly, "So this your idea of a good time, ha?" But the cousin is just is revolted, although he can't really express it. We're so "free" now, it's not good idea to publicly express your distaste to the whole bloody affair. I can, however, express it on my blog…

We've also heard of several more abductions and now assassinations. They say Badir's Brigade have come out with a new list of ?'wanted'… but dead, not alive. It's a list of mainly Sunni professors, former army generals, doctors, etc. Already there have been three assassinations in Saydiyeh, an area that is a mix of Sunnis and Shia. They say Badir's Brigade people broke into the house and gunned down the families. This assassination spree is, apparently, a celebration of the election results.

It's interesting to watch American politicians talk about how American troops are the one thing standing between Sunnis and Shia killing each other in the streets. It looks more and more these days like that's not true. Right now, during all these assassinations and abductions, the troops are just standing aside and letting Iraqis get at each other. Not only that, but the new army or the National Guard are just around to protect American troops and squelch any resistance.

There was hope of a secular Iraq, even after the occupation. That hope is fading fast.

- posted by river @ 3:03 PM

my coments are in blue

Gelisgesti wrote:

Sistani and others will be trying to insure a rapid departure for our troops .... after all, the U.S. presence is the reason for the insurgency.
Why do you believe this is the reason? Why do you reject the reason for the insurgency (I call it subversion) to be the desire of the subversives to recover their declining/lost tyrannical power.
Bush will say 'ok I'll send 5000 home but because of Syria and Iran's hostile stature he won't feel it would be a good move if he were to yank everyone.
Why do you believe this stuff? Bush has already stated that the extra 12,000 troops brought in to help protect the Iraqi election are going home now.
This will go back and forth til about the middle of March .... all this time the Sunnis will continue to extract thier pound of flesh from our troops in payback for Falluja. Sistani will call for a peaceful protest and a million or so Shiites will hit the streets. Bush will pull another 'bring em on' stunt ..... and they will .... hundreds of thousands of Sunni and Shias will try to convince George that pulling out might be the best thing .......... what will George do?
Your statement is more hymnal-like Bunkum Slop. Bush has already said several times that we will remove our troops from Iraq when the Iraqi government asks us to leave. Why do you think otherwise? I bet we will be asked to leave after the Iraqi Assembly presents a Constitution to the Iraqi voters that they approve, and after the new Iraqi government is elected under that Constitution, and after that new Iraqi government decides it can handle the subversives by itself without US help. The new Constitutional Iraqi government is scheduled to be accomplished by the end of this year.

What do you think will happen and upon what do you base your opinion? Please supply links. Thx.

I tell you what. When I come back to read on these rare visits, I am quickly aware of why I left this place.
why I cannot care about the continuing of insanely sick opinionating. (excuse me if I am not too clear, I am not a speaker) Reading all you people glorifying the present government and their lies is so depressing, I have to go wash out my eyes. who gives a _____ if the Iraqis had wmd, the Bush/cheny/rummy crowd did not even need an excuse to start an aggressive war against a country already poor and suffering. They had a plan, and they are working it. I just have to hope only the supporters of these sick people suffer from these actions. but no, we all will. Since when did it become the American way to kill thousands of people just so they could get one or two?? How many of the crippled Iraqi children and the suffering women and hungry, thin beggars (and multiplied DEAD), were guilty of Saddam's sins? But they are paying. and paying, and still paying. Quit glorifying evil. Quit praising craziness.
Or just keep on, I am not going to know, I am NOT coming back here again

Inquiry & Analysis - Iraq
February 16, 2005
No. 207

Iraqi Elections (VI): The Results and Their Implications
By Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli*

To view this Inquiry & Analysis in HTML, visit
http://memri.org/bin/opener_latest.cgi?ID=IA20705

Introduction

By all accounts the general elections held in Iraq on January 30, 2005 were a seminal event in the history of the country and, by extension, an
important benchmark by which the future evolution of democracies in other countries of the Middle East will be measured. The people of Iraq went by the millions to cast their ballots in a first step toward establishing a democratic regime.

The mechanism of the elections was as follows:

Each Iraqi voter was given the opportunity to cast two ballots: one for the
national assembly and one for one of the eighteen provincial councils. The
voters in the three Kurdish provinces (Dahouk, Erbil and Sulaymaniya) cast a third ballot for the autonomous Kurdish parliament.

The choices open to the voters were broad and varied. There were 111 lists of political parties, coalitions or individuals, comprising a total of 7471
candidates who were competing for the 275 seats in the National Assembly. Additionally, 7850 candidates were running for 748 seats in the provincial councils (41 seats in each province, except for Baghdad with 51 seats.) And, finally, there were 499 candidates running for the 111 seats in the Kurdish Parliament. A total of 15,820 candidates at all levels of the elections were, thus, competing for 1134 seats, or an average of 14 candidates per seat - a high figure by Western standards but an understandable one for a people bursting with democratic impulses after almost half a century of political dictatorship and denial of liberty.

Election Results

According to the figures published by the Independent Elections Commissionin Iraq (IECI), approximately 8.45 million voters, or about 59 percent of 14.2 million registered voters (including those registered overseas), cast their ballots. The results of the elections will be officially certified three days after the date of their publication, in order that anyone wishing to contest the results shall have an opportunity to come forward. As the director general of IECI 'Adil al-Lami has pointed out, it is not the tabulation of ballots that is apt to be in question. Rather, results may be contested for the alleged failure of the Elections Commission to open the ballot boxes for voters in the city of Mosul and a number of other cities in the Sunni Triangle because of security considerations. As a result, as many as 15,000 voters in one instance were denied the chance to vote.(1)

Based on the distribution of votes, twelve lists will be represented in the
National Assembly. For the Table of Lists Represented in the National
Assembly, visit http://memri.org/bin/opener_latest.cgi?ID=IA20705

Procedures of Seat Allocation

Seat allocations for Iraq's 275-member National Assembly are calculated as follows:

* The total number of valid votes cast (8,456,266) is divided by 275 to
give an initial quota of 30,750 votes per seat.

* Any list with fewer votes than the initial quota is excluded.

* After excluding the votes of lists who fell below the threshold the total
votes used for calculating the allocation of seats is reduced to 8,011,450.

* A seat quota is then calculated by dividing the new total by 275, which
is 29,132 votes per seat.

* The unallocated balance of votes is dealt with by giving an extra seat to
lists with the highest balance to complete the allocation of the 275
seats.(2)

As was expected, three lists (the Kurdish list (130), Shi'ite list (169),
and Allawi's list (185)) have emerged with 87.6 percent of the votes. Had
the Sunnis voted in large numbers, the number of votes of the three major lists may have been the same but their percentage of the total would have been decidedly lower.

Comments on the Results

The results suggest a number of observations:

The Winners:

A) The Iraqi National Alliance

It is significant that the Iraqi National Alliance has emerged with a
plurality rather than a majority of the votes. This outcome could limit its
governing options, particularly on matters relating to the role of Islam in
the state. It should also be kept in mind that this list itself is a
coalition of two competing Shi'ite parties - the Supreme Council of the
Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) headed by Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim and the al-Da'wa Party, headed by Ibrahim al-Ja'afari - and the secular Iraqi
National Congress, headed by Dr. Ahmad Chalabi. In addition to these three established political elements the Allied list includes a number of
independent candidates, amongst whom are secular Shi'ites and even
individuals representing other Iraqi ethnic groups.

Three major figures, 'Adil Abd al-Mehdi, Ibrahim al-Ja'afari and Ahmad
Chalabi, have announced their candidacies for the post of prime minister.
Provided the Alliance remains cohesive, which may not be the case for long, any candidate it sponsors is likely to be the next prime minister. This will leave Mr. Allawi out of the list of viable candidates. However, should group cohesion give way to the pressures and incentives of deal-making, there could be a big surprise that could benefit Mr. Allawi. Another possible contender is Hussein al-Shahrestani, a nuclear physicist who opposed being drawn into Saddam's program to produce weapons of mass destruction and who was subsequently imprisoned, may reemerge as a viable candidate after withdrawing from the race a few days ago

B) The Kurds

By all standards, the Kurds, who make up no more than 20 percent of the
population, garnered 25.7 percent of the vote, have emerged as the biggest winners and greatest beneficiaries of Sunni boycott of the elections. The Kurds are now in a position to tip the scales in favor of a candidate amenable to fulfilling their political aspirations and demands. These include the election of their leader Jalal Talabani as the president of
Iraq.

But beyond this immediate demand, the Kurds have three critical priorities:
first, the creation of federalism in Iraq that will guarantee the autonomy
of the Kurdish region comprising the three governorates of Dahouk, Erbil and Sulaymania; second, the incorporation of the City of Kirkuk with its vast oil reserves into the Kurdish region; and, third, the separation of powers and the giving of primacy in legislation to democracy over religion. In Fact, the strength of the Kurds and some of the secular Shi'ites within the Alliance list backed by the secular Shi'ite group of Ayad Allawi will be a significant bulwark against any attempt by the Shi'ite clerics to produce an Islamist government in Iraq.

The Losers:

A) The Current Iraqi Leadership

The results of the elections have fallen below the expectations of Ayad
Allawi, the interim prime minister, who was unable to escape blame for the
absence of security and for the shortages in basic amenities, particularly
electricity, drinking water, gasoline for cars, and gas for home cooking.
Iraq's interim President, Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawer, whose list earned only five seats, is most likely to lose his job under the next government. Ironically, his failure is a success: that is, the results of the elections testify to their fairness and transparency. Elections in Arab states never result in existing governments losing.

B) Iraq's Elder Statesman

The results must also be considered unsatisfactory for Dr. 'Adnan
al-Pachachi, Iraq's elder statesman, a leading Sunni candidate and a former minister of foreign affairs who failed to receive sufficient votes to be elected. Dr. al-Pachachi waxed philosophical by declaring that "Allah is
generous" (Allah Karim) and that he will participate in the next elections.
In the meantime, he will prod the Sunnis to be active in the new government and the drafting of the new constitution.(3) Dr. al-Pachachi is being mentioned as a possible second vice president of Iraq.(4)

C) The Monarchist Movement

The elections have dealt a fatal blow to the aspirations of two political
movements which run on a platform calling for the restoration of monarchy to Iraq. The claimant to the throne, al-Sharif Ali bin Al-Hussein, a cousin of the last Iraqi monarch, Faisal II, received 13,740 votes. The second list under the name of Iraqi Hashemite Group, received another 9,781 votes. Even if the votes of both lists had been combined, the result would have gained hardly one seat in the National Assembly and ultimately had no impact on the nature of the emerging regime in Iraq.

Key Events After the Elections

Under the Transitional Administrative Law (the law governing Iraq, or TAL,
during the transition to a constitutional democracy) the following key
events must take place following the tabulation of the votes and the winners declared:

* The Transitional National Assembly will appoint by a two-third majority a Presidency Council, consisting of a President and two Deputy Presidents
(Article 36 of TAL).

* The Presidency Council will appoint by a unanimous vote a Prime Minister and - on his or her recommendation - cabinet ministers to run the Iraqi government (Article 38). The number of ministries is not fixed by the TAL. If the Presidency Council fails to nominate a prime minister unanimously the responsibility will be reverted to the National Assembly, which must do so by a two-third majority.

* The Prime Minister and his cabinet must receive a vote of confidence by a simple majority of the National Assembly before commencing work as a government.

* The Transitional National Assembly is required to draft a new
constitution by August 15, 2005.

* The draft constitution is to be presented in a referendum to the Iraqi
people for approval by October 15, 2005.

By December 15, 2005 new elections will be held under the new constitution to choose a new national assembly which, in turn, will have to approve a new government.

The Weight of Women

Under the Transitional Administration Law, women will comprise at least 25 percent of the members of the National Assembly. It is a great achievement for the Iraqi women, although it is too early to tell what will be their weight in the assembly and how they vote on matters relating to family legislation.

The Problem of Personal Security

The Iraqi voters cast their ballots for lists of candidates, often not
knowing who were on the lists. When the votes are finally tabulated and the seats are allocated, the names of the 1134 individuals who will occupy the seats of the national assembly, the provincial councils, and the Kurdish
parliament, will be made public. In some high-risk areas, but not only
there, these men and women will be targets for terrorists and remnants of
the Ba'th regime determined to undermine and disrupt the will of the
electorate. Providing individual security to so many elected office holders
will pose a great challenge to the nascent security services of Iraq.

*Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli is Senior Analyst of MEMRI's Middle East Economic
Studies Program.

Endnotes:
(1) Al-Zaman (Baghdad), February 14, 2005.
(2) The figures are provided by the Independent Elections Commission for Iraq on February 13, 2005. A detailed distribution of votes for all the 111 lists competed in the elections is published in the daily Al-Zaman
(Baghdad), February 14, 2005.
(3) Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), February 14, 2005.
(4) Al-Quds Al-Arabi (London), February 14, 2005.

Deb, even if true; that would mean one California Rep. (Chris Cox) was guilty of ignorance.