SUMMARY OF THE REAL TERRORIST POKER GAME
Until I encounter sufficient evidence to show otherwise, I am assuming that all that follows is true and valid.
GCP = www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2003/17300pf.htm General Colin Powell to the UN, 2/5/2003, alleged the US administration advocated invading Iraq for the following five reasons:
1. Iraq has not disarmed as the UN demanded;
2. Saddam Hussein and his regime are concealing their efforts to produce ready-to-use WMD;
3. Iraq is harboring members of the al Qaeda confederation;
4. Three times in 2002 –2003, the US requested Saddam Hussein to remove Zarqawi, a leader of the AaI al Qaeda (i.e., Ansar an Islam al Qaeda) encamped in northern Iraq.
5. Saddam Hussein purposely perpetrates cruelty to his own citizens and neighbors.
CDR = www.cia.gov/cia/reports/iraq_wmd_2004/Comp_Report_Key_Findings.pdf Charles Duelfer's Report, 9/30/2004, alleged that Saddam Hussein intends to redevelop and reassemble WMD when UN sanctions on Iraq are lifted and/or become sufficiently ignored.
9-11CR = www.9-11commission.gov/report/index.htm The National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States Report, i.e., The 9-11 Commission Report, 8/21/2004, alleged the following:
1. Osama bin Laden in 1998 declared war on both civilian and military Americans with the objective of killing all of them wherever they be found;
2. President George Bush on 9/11/2001 declared to the National Security Council the United States would not just punish the perpetrators of terrorist attacks on Americans but also those who harbored them;
3. President Bush declared to the nation on TV the night of 9/11/2001 that we would make no distinction between the terrorists who committed terrorism against Americans and those who harbor them.
4. President Bush declared to Congress and to the nation on TV the night of 9/20/2001 that our enemy is a radical network of terrorists, and every government that supports them… Our war on terror begins with al Qaeda, but does not end there … Our war on terror will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped, and defeated.
5. The al Qaeda are a confederation of multiple terrorist groups led by Osama bin Laden.
6. Osama bin Laden aided a group of Islamic extremists encamped in northern Iraq.
7. The Al Qaeda encamped in northern Iraq, suffered major defeats by Kurdish Forces in the late 1990s.
8. In 2001, the Al Qaeda remnant in northern Iraq, with Osama bin Laden’s help, re-formed into an organization called Ansar al Islam (AaI).
9. There is zero evidence that the Kurd’s again attacked the AaI al Qaeda in northern Iraq.
10. There is zero evidence that Saddam’s regime attacked the AaI al Qaeda in northern Iraq.
11. There is zero evidence that the US attacked the AaI al Qaeda in northern Iraq before 2003.
12. There is zero evidence that Saddam Hussein requested the Kurds to attack the AaI al Qaeda in northern Iraq.
13. There is zero evidence that Saddam Hussein requested the US to attack the AaI al Qaeda in northern Iraq.
14. There is zero evidence that Saddam Hussein was intolerant of the encampment of the AaI al Qaeda in northern Iraq.
GTF = General Tommy Franks in "American Soldier," 7/1/2004, alleged the following:
1. In 2003, the US attacked and defeated the AaI al Qaeda in northern Iraq.
2. Over 1,000 weapons and munitions dumps, some containing very high explosive materials, were found scattered throughout Iraq by the US in 2003 and 2004.
3. Thousands of buried, murdered Iraqi citizens were discovered throughout Iraq by the US in 2003 and 2004.
I conclude the following from the GCP, CDR, 9-11CR, and GTF evidence presented above:
1. Each one of the five reasons given in GCP for invading Iraq were sufficient reasons for invading Iraq.
2. Only one of those five GCP reasons, the WMD reason, proved invalid (4 out of 5; “not bad for government work”).
3. Al Qaeda were harbored in Iraq prior to our invasion with the knowledge, willingness, and tolerance of Saddam Hussein.
4. Sadda Hussein had to be removed from the governance of Iraq in order to remove the AaI al Qaeda from Iraq.
5. Saddam Hussein had to be removed from the governance of Iraq in the interest of the Iraqi people and the American people.
GTF, Chapter 10 The Plan, page 420.
Quote:There was no question: Phase IV would be a crucial period. Having won the war, we would have to secure the peace. And securing the peace would not be easy in a country that had been raped and massacred for more than three decades under Saddam Hussein. There were deep divisions among Sunnis and Shias, Kurds and Arabs, haves and have-nots; the regions traditional tribal rivalries would be hard to overcome. It would take time—perhaps years. And the costs would be high, certainly in money and conceivably lives.
There was no doubt about the actions that would be required. Coalition military leaders across Iraq would provide civil affairs expertise, government assistance, security, and Humanitarian Assistance to millions of Iraqis. Our conventional forces and Special Forces teams had the capability and expertise to accomplish these tasks, and Gene Renuart’s fifty-pound brains had done a masterful job in identifying and providing the resources to Coalition units to do the job.
Given our key policy goal of establishing a representative government in Iraq, though, it would be necessary to establish civilian control across the country as soon as possible. The questions were: How long would it be necessary to maintain military rule in Iraq? How quickly could the Iraqis take over? What form should a “Provisional Authority” take? These are tough questions, and there was no easy recipe for the answers.
On one hand, larger Coalition military forces and martial law might b required to stay in country for years, in order to preserve security. On the other, the Iraqis might claim their country as their own: they might welcome the liberation and organize themselves swiftly to control Iraq without Coalition help.
These problems commanded hours and days of discussion and debate among CENTCOM planners and Washington officials. If a true consensus leader—a kind of Iraq Hamid Karzai—could be located, then a representative government might be possible in the short term. Majority and minority factions could be represented, and Iraq would become a model for the Arab-Muslim world. But where to find that consensus leader?