THE US, THE UN AND THE IRAQIS THEMSELVES, V. 7.0

The same rose-colored glasses as 30 years ago...at least let's be honest about the shortcomings of this occupation

US Failed to Honestly Assess Iraq Threat-Report

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is facing increasingly deadly attacks in Iraq because, as in the Vietnam war, it failed to honestly assess facts on the ground, according to a new think tank report.

The report, prepared by Anthony Cordesman, senior fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said administration spokesmen had appeared to live "in a fantasyland" when giving accounts of events in Iraq.

Cordesman, a former Pentagon official who has made several trips to Iraq, said Iraqi spies were a serious threat to U.S. operations and that there was no evidence insurgent numbers were declining despite vigorous U.S. and Iraqi counterattacks.

The report was updated after Tuesday's attack on a U.S. base in Mosul which killed 22 people. Defense officials said the explosion was apparently caused by a suicide bomber, underscoring the problem of infiltrators in U.S. operations.

After the 2003 invasion to oust Saddam Hussein , the United States "assumed that it was dealing with a limited number of insurgents that coalition forces would defeat well before the election" of a new Iraqi government, Cordesman asserted.

"It did not see the threat level that would emerge if it did not provide jobs or pensions for Iraqi career officers or co-opt them into the nation-building effort. ... It acted as if it had years to rebuild Iraq using its own plans, rather than months to shape the climate in which Iraqis could do it," he said.

Cordesman said in the first year of the U.S. occupation, Washington "failed to come to grips with the Iraqi insurgency ... in virtually every important dimension."

NO HONEST ASSESSMENT

Under the heading "Denial as a method of counter-insurgency warfare," the report accused the United States of minimizing the insurgent and criminal threat in Iraq and of exaggerating popular support for U.S. and coalition efforts.

Washington "in short ... failed to honestly assess the facts on the ground in a manner reminiscent of Vietnam," Cordesman wrote.

He said that as late as July 2004, administration spokesmen still lived "in a fantasyland in terms of their public announcements," including putting the core insurgent force at 5,000 individuals when experts in Iraq knew the correct number to be 12,000 to 16,000.

As in most insurgencies, including Vietnam, sympathizers within the Iraqi government and Iraqi forces, as well as Iraqis working for the coalition, media and non-governmental organizations, "often provided excellent human intelligence (about U.S. and coalition operations) without violently taking part in the insurgency," the report said.

Cordesman said U.S. attempts to vet these Iraqis cannot solve the problem because "it seems likely that family, clan and ethnic loyalties have made many supposedly loyal Iraqis become at least part-time sources."

Since early 2004, insurgents have suffered tactical defeats in Baghdad, Falluja and elsewhere. Still, "there is no evidence that the number of insurgents is declining as a result of coalition and Iraqi attacks to date," Cordesman said.

U.S. troops left Vietnam in 1973 after the war lost support at home. Many Americans became disenchanted with their government's failure to tell the truth about U.S. operations in Vietnam and about casualty levels.

None of the 4 water treatment plants in Fallujah are operational since there are still insurgents picking off the rebuilding team.

WASHINGTON - An international construction company has pulled out of its contract to rebuild Iraq's transportation systems, deciding it was too dangerous to stay, a spokesman for the U.S.-led reconstruction effort said Wednesday.

Contrack International Inc. led a coalition of firms working on a $325 million contract to rebuild Iraq's roads, bridges and railways. Contrack withdrew from that contract last month after a surge in attacks on reconstruction efforts, said Lt. Col. Eric Schnaible of the Pentagon (news - web sites)'s Project and Contract Office in Baghdad.

"It's hard to do construction in a place where people are shooting at you or intimidating your work force," Schnaible said in a telephone interview. "It's a challenge across the country."

Workers for Iraq contractors have been killed by mortars, car bombs and gunfire. Some have been kidnapped and beheaded.

Contrack President Karim Camel-Toueg did not immediately return telephone messages left at the company's Arlington, Va., offices Wednesday.

Security concerns have been a major reason for the slow pace of reconstruction which has frustrated Iraqi and U.S. officials alike. Of the $18.4 billion in Iraqi reconstruction money approved by Congress more than a year ago, less than $2 billion has been spent, PCO head Charles Hess said last month.

Hey Folks, these are some serious setbacks...can we be a little more realistic about the prospects?

Our prospects are grim from two points of view. First, the consequences of our bungles outlined above are severely handicapping our efforts to reconstruct a representative democracy in Iraq. Second, if we flee Iraq, unlike Vietnam, the insurgents in Iraq will follow us home. Count on it!

I recommend holding the election regardless. If the result succeeds in winning the support of the great majority of the Iraqis, then bluntly inform the Iraqis we cannot secure their freedom without a major effort of their design and of their participation.

If the result fails to win the support Of the great majority of the Iraqis, then partition Iraq into at least three relatively autonomous, self-governing states (e.g., Kurds, Sunni, and Shia) linked to an Iraqis central negotiating council, but not government. Then back off to our defensible "green zones" protecting only the integrity of each autonomous state until we can come up with something better.

Well first, I think the Reuters account is drawing conclusions that sure don't stack up against what I have heard administration and DOD officials say with my own ears. None painted the picture rosier than it was.

Fallujah just underwent a major assault. I would be surprised if much was working there.

Elsewhere in Iraq the water is flowing, the lights are on, and new sewer systems are going in. When the negative press focuses on only the hotspots and completely ignores all the rest, one easily can fall into a 'the sky is falling' mentality and see it all as hopeless. I think that's exactly what the anti-war, anti-administration people want them to see and that includes the liberal press.

The men and women I've talked to and who I hear from who are there or who have been there don't see it as hopeless at all. Nor do those who have everything to lose if they are wrong. I'm siding with them.

Ican does present an interesting Plan B if the election fails, however.

I agree. Besides, we really don't have any choice until the promised 1/30/2005 election is held. The price of our flight from Iraq is far higher than what we are currently experiencing or will experience staying in Iraq.

Turkey and Syria will object to your plan Ican, they both have notable kurd minorities in a contineous geographic area. These kurds have been rebelious in the past, seking autonomy, and an autonomous area in Irak might well inspire another push for autonomy in their countries.

Didn't the US promise Turkey that Irak would not be partitioned for just this reason?

The US makes lots of promises, another broken promise would hardly be noticed.

It's not only the promises that hurts us; it's all that 'free' money of influence.

Yep...cut and run. That is what I consider to be in our best interests right now...despite the fact that it is a very unpopular position.

Sortta like folding cased queens before the flop.

Not an easy thing to do.

But sometimes the not-so-easy-thing-to-do....is the right thing to do...and the best thing to do....as you probably know from holding onto cased queens when you knew you shoulda folded.

The question is very basic; how many of you are willing to send your parents, sons, daughters, and friends to Iraq to fight in this war? How many of you are willing to continue to spend two billion dollars every month in Iraq while our own needs are being sacrificed?

Wwell they say image is everything, so looking through the eyes of Iraq we can see the biggest baddest strongest military in the history of the world (the mother of all armies) allow some ignorant arab to walk into the heart of the US Army during the most sacred lunch hour and blown them to bits. Meanwhile the same US military is telling them to get out and vote and the US will provide them with protection. Tra la la lala.

Love the example, Frank! Accept, we're not exactly short stacked here, are we? Comparative piles DEMAND them Qs get played. All-in is the appropriate bet in such a situation and I think you know that… no? :wink:

If anyone hasn't had a good belly laugh today, Click Here.
(This kid's funny.)

What you said was this:
You also said this:

The second quote is factually false. A broad array of independent reporting from Iraq (as I've posted elsewhere) finds foreign fighters as something like one or two in ten. Iraqi citizens constitute the great majority of insurgent forces and have for some time.

Whether the 'core' of the initial battle against occupation was driven by former Saddam supporters is entirely irrelevant. Iraqis themselves would not be entering into the insurgency in such numbers, and with such passion, if the American occupation had not been so deeply immoral and cruel.

I assume you mean Turkey might disagree with what Foxfyer called my plan B. Well if they do, then here is a tentative plan C. OK Turkey you take this whole thing over and see what you can make of it. I doubt Turkey would go for plan C either, and might then be amenable to negotiation of a plan D of some sort. Don't forget our original agreement was made with Turkey before they elected a new government and decided to break their previous government's agreement to let us invade Iraq through Turkey as well as through Jordan, Quwait and Saudi Arabia.

That settles it. A successful January election, plan A, is the best plan.

I think you stated those questions incorrectly. I think you forgot participation in our military is voluntary.

How many of you are willing to allow your parents, sons, daughters, and friends to go to Iraq to fight in this war? I am!

How many of you are willing to continue to allow spending of two billion dollars every month in Iraq while not getting all our wants satisfied? I am!

You see, I think the total price to pull out is greater than the total price to stay in. This is no poker hand where you can simply limit your losses by folding. I wish it were.

The back door draft doesn't sound anything like "allow" to this citizen.

To volunteer for Y years has always risked ending up back door volunteering for Y + years.


By the way, we are behind schedule for 500 pages by one minute before midnight, Xmas eve.