Iraq factions urge delay of election
At summit, politicians cite ongoing strife
By Thanassis Cambanis, Globe Staff | November 19, 2004
DUKAN, Iraq -- Leading Sunni politicians and representatives of Iraq's prime minister and president called yesterday for Iraq's national election to be postponed until order is restored in the violence-racked Sunni Arab heartland, the strongest signal yet that the ballot might not take place in January as scheduled.
The national election has been the linchpin of the US agenda in Iraq, and the interim government's main mission is supposed to be paving the way for an elected body to write a new constitution. But security has deteriorated in the Sunni Triangle, and US and Iraqi forces have struggled to establish order.
At a one-day summit of nearly all of Iraq's major political parties at a lakeside resort here in the Kurdish north, senior officials -- including a vice president and several ministers -- discussed delaying elections by two or three months until security can be established. Although the meetings are not binding, they are expected to shape the interim government's formal deliberations later in Baghdad.
It is unclear who has legal authority to postpone the election, which under the interim constitution is set to take place sometime before Jan. 31. But a top Allawi aide said the prime minister would consult his Cabinet, Iraq's Independent Election Committee, and the UN on the matter.
''I don't think in this short period we can establish security and solve the technical problems facing the election committee," said Ibrahim al-Janabi, interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's right-hand man in the Iraqi National Accord. ''I think the delay or postponing of the election is more likely than holding them on time," Janabi said in an interview during a break in the closed-door meeting.
Two State Department officials reached yesterday afternoon in Washington said they had not heard about the meeting and could not immediately comment on it. However, they said that US policy has been to honor the wishes of the Iraqi people and that, as far as they knew, the government does not intend to delay the vote.
''This is a decision that the Iraqis are going to make based on what they think can be done," one of the officials said on condition of anonymity. ''The Iraqi government has said and continues to reiterate that their intention is to hold elections on schedule."
Moving the election date could open a serious rift between Sunnis, who fear that the vote will officially relegate them to minority status in the new government, and Shi'ites and Kurds, many of whom want the election to go ahead so they can claim their long-denied share of national political power and write a new constitution that guarantees their rights.
The retreat was originally supposed to focus on the electoral process and multiparty coalitions. The agenda shifted to emergency footing, however, with virtually every party claiming that in the current security climate, the election would be a bloody, lethal affair.
''Sunnis will boycott the elections if the security situation continues as it is now," said Mohsen Abdulhamid, head of the Iraqi Islamic Party, which withdrew from the government last week to protest the invasion of Fallujah by US and Iraqi forces.
But Shi'ite and Kurdish leaders at the meeting, who say they collectively represent about 85 percent of Iraq's population, said they were prepared to hold the election in January with or without participation from those in the Sunni Triangle. ''There is no perfect election in the world," said Sa'ad Jawad Qandil, a top official in the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI. ''If there are some minorities who cannot participate because of security, that is not a reason to cancel the decision of the majority."
In yesterday's meeting, Kurds and Shi'ites argued that Sunnis were holding the election process hostage, demanding a delay as long as their cities were plagued by the very violence for which they are responsible.
Nawshirwan Mustafa, a top official in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, said that even though US and Iraqi government forces had failed to bring security, the election could not be indefinitely postponed.
''The government's credibility depends on sticking to the timetable," he said. ''There is no state in the world where 100 percent of the people take part in the vote."
Until now, Iraqi politicians have publicly skirted around the potentially explosive issue of the timing of the election.
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the supreme religious authority for Iraq's majority Shi'ites, summoned hundreds of thousands of followers to the streets earlier this year to back his demand for a strict timetable for the election and a new constitution.
This summer, Allawi broached the possibility of holding the national election only in stable areas, simply leaving out those parts of the country too dangerous for a vote. He appeared to have backed away from that stance yesterday, however.
''You can't have elections in some cities and exclude others," Janabi, his aide, said. If you want to do this election you must do it in all Iraq at one time."
The United States has said it believes the election should be held in January across the entire nation, and designed the military offensive that began last month and includes operations in Fallujah and Mosul to achieve that goal.
Sunni Muslims thrived during Saddam Hussein's regime, and many mobilized early against the interim government, which is dominated by a mix of Shi'ite Arabs and Kurds. Now, fighting that is concentrated in the belt of Sunni cities at the heart of the insurgency, including Mosul, Baghdad, and Fallujah, has intensified the Sunni feeling of anger toward the government in Baghdad, making the political equation even more volatile.
''It's pretty difficult when you look at the security situation right now to say we can hold elections," said Hajim al-Hasani, a Sunni politician who has formed a new political party with President Ghazi al-Yawer.
Holding the vote in January would effectively disenfranchise the country's Sunni minority, Hasani said. ''You would be preparing the ground for something like civil war," he said.
Iraq's mostly ineffective police force and National Guard further complicate the problem. US commanders said they had hoped to clear insurgent strongholds and turn them over to Iraqi forces to patrol, in time for citizens to register to vote in December and cast their ballots in January.
But explosive violence has flared across the country in insurgent strongholds such as Mosul and Baqubah, even as US forces stormed through Fallujah. Yesterday in Mosul, insurgents took control of several neighborhoods and tried to kill the provincial governor, shelling his headquarters and killing one of his guards.
Kurdish and Shi'ite leaders said they were skeptical that postponing the election would do anything to further the fight against insurgents and terrorist groups.
Ahmed Chalabi, the former Pentagon favorite and leader of the Iraqi National Congress, has reemerged as a key coalition builder among religious Shi'ite parties. In yesterday's meeting, he said, he questioned those politicians who called for a delay.
''You ask to postpone these elections until the security situation improves," he said he told participants. ''Who says security will improve if the elections are postponed?"
The delegates left after 10 p.m. last night, with an agreement to lobby the government in Baghdad to allow more time for political parties to prepare for the elections, and to demand that the government include political parties in security planning.
The same leaders who yesterday berated the Iraqi government's failure to take charge of security themselves represent the government almost in its entirety. Several of them are now arguing behind the scenes that the government should deploy their party militias to provide security during the election.
SCIRI, the Iraqi National Congress, and both major Kurdish parties said their own fighters could effectively police large parts of Iraq if invited by the government.
No political groups allied with the insurgency attended the meeting. Neither did representatives of Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shi'ite cleric whose Mahdi Army has waged fierce battles with American forces in Sadr City, Najaf, and Karbala.
US and Iraqi government officials have opposed deploying the political parties' militias, saying such a move would open a Pandora's box, unleashing competing private armies accountable only to their commanders. They also fear that militias would increase the likelihood of internecine conflict after the election between the winners and losers.
Farah Stockman of the Globe staff contributed to this report from Washington. Thanassis Cambanis can be reached at
[email protected].
DUKAN, Iraq -- Leading Sunni politicians and representatives of Iraq's prime minister and president called yesterday for Iraq's national election to be postponed until order is restored in the violence-wracked Sunni Arab heartland, the strongest signal yet that the ballot might not take place in January as scheduled.
The national election has been the linchpin of the US agenda in Iraq, and the interim government's main mission is supposed to be paving the way for an elected body to write a new Constitution. But security has deteriorated in the Sunni triangle, and US and Iraqi forces have struggled to establish order.
At a one-day summit of nearly all of Iraq's major political parties at a lakeside resort here in the Kurdish north, senior officials -- including a vice president and several ministers -- discussed delaying elections by two or three months until security can be established. Although the meetings are not binding, they are expected to shape the interim government's formal deliberations later in Baghdad.
It is unclear who has legal authority to postpone the election, which under the interim constitution is set to take place sometime before Jan. 31. But a top Allawi aide said the prime minister would consult his Cabinet, Iraq's Independent Election Committee, and the UN on the matter.
''I don't think in this short period we can establish security and solve the technical problems facing the election committee," said Ibrahim al-Janabi, interim prime minister Iyad Allawi's right-hand man in the Iraqi National Accord. ''I think the delay or postponing of the election is more likely than holding them on time," Janabi said in an interview during a break in the closed-door meeting.
Two State Department officials reached yesterday afternoon in Washington said they had not heard about the meeting and could not immediately comment on it. However, they said that US policy has been to honor the wishes of the Iraqi people and that, as far as they knew, the government does not intend to delay the vote.
''This is a decision that the Iraqis are going to make based on what they think can be done," one of the officials said on condition of anonymity. ''The Iraqi government has said and continues to reiterate that their intention is to hold elections on schedule."
Moving the election date could open a serious rift between Sunnis, who fear that the vote will officially relegate them to minority status in the new government, and Shi'ites and Kurds, many of whom want the election to go ahead so they can claim their long-denied share of national political power and write a new constitution that guarantees their rights.
The retreat was originally supposed to focus on the electoral process and multi-party coalitions. The agenda shifted to emergency footing, however, with virtually every party claiming that in the current security climate, the election would be a bloody, lethal affair.
''Sunnis will boycott the elections if the security situation continues as it is now," said Mohsen Abdulhamid, head of the Iraqi Islamic Party, which withdrew from the government last week to protest the invasion of Fallujah by US and Iraqi forces.
But Shi'ite and Kurdish leaders at the meeting, who say they collectively represent about 85 percent of Iraq's population, said they were prepared to hold the election in January with or without the Sunni triangle.
''There is no perfect election in the world," said Sa'ad Jawad Qandil, a top official in the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI. ''If there are some minorities who cannot participate because of security, that is not a reason to cancel the decision of the majority."
In yesterday's meeting, Kurds and Shi'ites argued that Sunnis were holding the election process hostage, demanding a delay as long as their cities were plagued by the very violence for which they are responsible.
Nawshirwan Mustafa, a top official in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, said that even though US and Iraqi government forces had failed to bring security, the election could not be indefinitely postponed.
''The government's credibility depends on sticking to the timetable," he said. ''There is no state in the world where 100 percent of the people take part in the vote."
Until now, Iraqi politicians have publicly skirted around the potentially explosive issue of the timing of the election.
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the supreme religious authority for Iraq's majority Shi'ites, summoned hundreds of thousands of followers to the streets earlier this year to back his demand for a strict timetable for the election and a new constitution.
This summer, Allawi broached the possibility of holding the national election only in stable areas, simply leaving out those parts of the country too dangerous for a vote. He appeared to have backed away from that stance yesterday, however.
''You can't have elections in some cities and exclude others," Janabi, his aide, said. If you want to do this election you must do it in all Iraq at one time."
The United States has said it believes the election should be held in January across the entire nation, and designed the military offensive that began last month and includes operations in Fallujah and Mosul to achieve that goal.
Sunni Muslims thrived during Saddam Hussein's regime, and many mobilized early against the interim government, which is dominated by a mix of Shi'ite Arabs and Kurds. Now, fighting that is concentrated in the belt of Sunni cities at the heart of the insurgency, including Mosul, Baghdad, and Fallujah, has intensified the Sunni feeling of anger toward the government in Baghdad, making the political equation even more volatile.
''It's pretty difficult when you look at the security situation right now to say we can hold elections," said Hajim al-Hasani, a Sunni politician who has formed a new political party with President Ghazi al-Yawer.
Holding the vote in January would effectively disenfranchise the country's Sunni minority, Hasani said. ''You would be preparing the ground for something like civil war," he said.
Iraq's mostly ineffective police force and National Guard further complicate the problem. US commanders said they had hoped to clear insurgent strongholds and turn them over to Iraqi forces to patrol, in time for citizens to register to vote in December and cast their ballots in January.
But explosive violence has flared across the country in insurgent strongholds such as Mosul and Baqubah, even as US forces stormed through Fallujah. Yesterday in Mosul, insurgents took control of several neighborhoods and tried to kill the provincial governor, shelling his headquarters and killing one of his guards.
Kurdish and Shi'ite leaders said they were skeptical that postponing the election would do anything to further the fight against insurgents and terrorist groups.
Ahmed Chalabi, the former Pentagon favorite and leader of the Iraqi National Congress, has reemerged as a key coalition builder among religious Shi'ite parties. In yesterday's meeting, he said, he questioned those politicians who called for a delay.
''You ask to postpone these elections until the security situation improves," he said he told participants. ''Who says security will improve if the elections are postponed?"
The delegates left after 10 p.m. last night, with an agreement to lobby the government in Baghdad to allow more time for political parties to prepare for the elections, and to demand that the government include political parties in security planning.
The same leaders who yesterday berated the Iraqi government's failure to take charge of security themselves represent the government almost in its entirety. Several of them are now arguing behind the scenes that the government should deploy their party militias to provide security during the election.
SCIRI, the Iraqi National Congress, and both major Kurdish parties said their own fighters could effectively police large parts of Iraq if invited by the government.
No political groups allied with the insurgency attended the meeting. Neither did representatives of Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shi'ite cleric whose Mahdi Army has waged fierce battles with American forces in Sadr City, Najaf, and Karbala.
US and Iraqi government officials have opposed deploying the political parties' militias, saying such a move would open a Pandora's box, unleashing competing private armies accountable only to their commanders. They also fear that militias would increase the likelihood of internecine conflict after the election between the winners and losers.
Does that mean y'all are going to show me a little compassion? 
