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THE US, THE UN AND THE IRAQIS THEMSELVES, V. 7.0

 
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 12:02 pm
revel wrote:
Quote:
U.S. Embassy in Iraq to Be World's Largest
Friday, February 06, 2004

While the future U.S. diplomatic presence in Baghdad is still in the planning phases, officials here agree that an enormous American contingent — of 3,000 or more U.S. employees — will be required in Iraq long after July 1, when the United States plans to turn over sovereignty to Iraqis.

"It most likely will be the largest in the world for some time," a U.S. official in Washington said Friday on condition of anonymity.


You infer from that that the alleged largest embassy in the world, occupied by 3,000 employees, will be used by the US to occupy the whole of Iraq forever Question Shocked

I infer from that that the US plans to make damn sure it knows for sure and quickly if the new Iraqi government resumes:
1. murdering its own people;
2. developing WMD;
3. harboring al Qaeda or other terrorists.

revel wrote:
I assume that fox news is acceptable by you?


Only half the time, but that's a significant edge over most of the other broadcast and cable news media. :wink:
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 12:15 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Fact: Bin Laden's dream of Dar Al-Islaam is actually held back by the ruling gov'ts of the individual countries.

Fact: One of Bin Laden's major stated goals is to remove said governments.

Conclusion: in taking out Saddam, we are doing Bin Laden's work for him, no matter what 'justifications' you want to use.


I infer you are saying your mind is made up no matter what justifications I use.

But just in case I'm wrong about that:

9-11 Commission, 8/21/2004 wrote:

www.9-11commission.gov/report/index.htm
[Chapt. 2.4]
To protect his own ties with Iraq, Turabi reportedly brokered an agreement that Bin Ladin would stop supporting activities against Saddam. Bin Ladin apparently honored this pledge, at least for a time, although he continued to aid a group of Islamist extremists operating in part of Iraq (Kurdistan) outside of Baghdad's control. In the late 1990s, these extremist groups suffered major defeats by Kurdish forces. In 2001, with Bin Ladin's help they re-formed into an organization called Ansar al Islam. There are indications that by then the Iraqi regime tolerated and may even have helped Ansar al Islam against the common Kurdish enemy.54


Note: Turabi was a leader of an al Qaeda affiliate based in Sudan, Africa.

Quote:
[Chapt. 2.3]
Bin Ladin Moves to Sudan
By the fall of 1989, Bin Ladin had sufficient stature among Islamic extremists that a Sudanese political leader, Hassan al Turabi, urged him to transplant his whole organization to Sudan. Turabi headed the National Islamic Front in a coalition that had recently seized power in Khartoum.30 Bin Ladin agreed to help Turabi in an ongoing war against African Christian separatists in southern Sudan and also to do some road building. Turabi in return would let Bin Ladin use Sudan as a base for worldwide business operations and for preparations for jihad.31
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 12:45 pm
Michael Ledeen: The Killers: The Dutch Hit Crisis Point
November 10, 2004, 4:20 p.m.
Quote:
Mohammed B., the man accused of killing Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh in Amsterdam last week, was born and bred in the Netherlands, "known as a relaxed, friendly and intelligent young man," a good student, a volunteer social worker, and a serious student of Information Technology. He came from a close family, and the death of his mother three years ago hit him very hard. He began to devote more time to religious studies, and in the last year became increasingly fanatic. He abandoned his social work because he refused to serve alcohol, and because the foundation where he volunteered organized events where both sexes were present. He was on welfare when he killed van Gogh.


We have seen this sort before; Mohammed B. is the Dutch-Moroccan version of the British-Pakistani killer of Daniel Pearl. Both came from good families that had to all appearances successfully assimilated into Western society. Both were well educated and upwardly mobile. Both had money and opportunity. Neither suffered unusual discrimination. Both lived in politically correct, meticulously tolerant societies that permitted no intrusion on their private lives. There was no apparent reason, either psychological or sociological, why either should have become a killer. Yet each freely chose ˜ freely chose ˜ to become a terrorist.


Each also chose to perform a ritual murder. Both beheaded (or, in the van Gogh killing, all-but-beheaded) their victims. This has long been a trademark of radical Islamist terrorists, whose videos of beheadings were used recruit new jihadists to their ranks long before they were broadcast around the world. The recruits join the jihad precisely because they want to behead the infidels and crusaders who are the objects of their hatred. Mohammed B. added a macabre twist: he left a message of hatred for Jews, Christians, Europeans and Americans impaled to van Gogh's chest with the murder weapon, a bloody dagger.


Mohammed B. was no lone wolf; within a few days, Dutch police had arrested seven other members of what they claimed was a terrorist group, and Spanish authorities said they believed the order for the ritual murder had come from terrorist leaders in their country. If that is correct, the van Gogh slaughter wasn't merely the result of local circumstances, but rather the product of a continental network of like-minded fanatics.


As the outstanding Italian journalist Magdi Allam sadly noted in the Corriere della Sera a few days after the event, the murder of van Gogh probably marked the end of Europe's multicultural utopian dream, because it forces politically correct Europeans to face an identity crisis that is eerily symmetrical with the same sort of crisis that has been afflicting Muslims for the past 30 years. Both were provoked by Western victories: The humiliation of Arab armies by Israel in 1967, and the defeat and dissolution of the Soviet Empire.


The Six-Day War and the ensuing collapse of the dream of a pan-Arab empire catalyzed a resurgence of fundamentalist Islam and its intense intolerance of social, religious and political freedoms. In Allam's neat formulation, al Qaeda represents the privatization and globalization of Islamic terrorism in its crudest and most hateful form. Yet it appeals to many Muslims, including some living and even born in the West, because they find it spiritually fulfilling, and also because there is no spiritual force in Europe capable of challenging it.


As things stand, the Europeans are so enthralled by cultural relativism and political correctness that they are totally unwilling to challenge any idea, even the jihadists' program of creating a theocratic state within Western civil society. The terrorist groups consider themselves autonomous, a community of believers opposed to the broader community of unbelievers and apostates.


The killing of Theo van Gogh is a textbook case of what happens when a tolerant but confused society takes political correctness to its illogical extreme. For Mohammed B. did not choose terrorism all by himself. He was indoctrinated and recruited in a mosque where he was pumped full of the Wahabbi doctrine "predominant in Saudi Arabia." The murder of van Gogh was an instant replay of the many murders carried out by Zarqawi and his followers in Iraq, extolled by fanatical Muslim Imams. As Allam reminds us, not all mosques are fundamentalist, extremist, or terrorist, but all the fundamentalists, extremists, and terrorists got that way in mosques.


The Dutch ˜ like every other European society I know ˜ were unwilling to recognize that they had potentially lethal enemies within, and that it was necessary to impose the rules of civil behavior on everyone within their domain. The rules of political correctness made it impossible even to criticize the jihadists, never mind compel them to observe the rules of civil society. Just look at what happened the next day: An artist in Rotterdam improvised a wall fresco that consisted of an angel and the words "Thou Shalt Not Kill." The local imam protested, and local authorities removed the fresco.


That's what happens when a culture is relativized to the point of suicide. As Daniel Patrick Moynihan once remarked of an American politician, "he can longer distinguish between our friends and our enemies, and so he has ended by adopting our enemies' view of the world." This has now befallen Europe, which cannot distinguish between free societies ˜ their natural friends ˜ like the United States and Israel, and has ended by embracing enemies such as the radical Islamist regimes and elevating Yasser Arafat to near beatific stature.


The process by which the Europeans arrived at this grave impasse has been going on ever since the late 19th century, when the intelligentsia revolted against "bourgeois society" and its values, and sought for deeper meaning in acts of nihilistic violence, in fascism and communism, and in vast wars that engulfed the rest of the world. The Europeans might have confronted their spiritual crisis after the Second World War (some brave souls, like Albert Camus, tried), but the Cold War tamped it down. With a huge enemy on their borders, the Europeans finessed the issue, opted for a soulless materialism (that has given them a nanny state and a birth rate that promises to extinguish them in relatively short order), and pretended that the core of Western civilization was irrelevant to their lives.


When the Cold War ended, the crisis was still there, but they projected it onto us. The United States "needed an enemy," they scoffed, because otherwise we could not define our mission. But they were the ones who had lost their enemy, and thus had to face their own terrible contradictions and moral failures. Now they deride us because of our presumed archaic faith. They even equate American religion with the fundamentalism that now menaces them inside their model cities and threatens their enormously self-satisfied secular utopia.


Holland is now in the grips of violent reaction. Mosques and religious schools are firebombed. Emergency legislation granting new intrusive powers to security services has been enabled. The Dutch are groping for a "solution," but they are still ducking the real problem, which, to their consternation, we are dealing with more effectively and far more self-confidently. "The multicultural crisis," Magdi Allam wisely reminds us, "should teach us that only a West with a strong religious, cultural and moral identity can challenge and open itself to the 'others' in a constructive and peaceful way. And that the goal must be a system of shared values within a common identity."
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 01:39 pm
According to reports by al-Jazeera reported, an Islamist group has freed two women relatives of Iraqi interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi but are still holding his cousin hostage.

Hoping that the other hostages will be free soon as well.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 01:40 pm
Ican,

we are discussing the situation in The Netherlands (and Europe) since more than a week here:
http://www.able2know.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=38223&highlight=&sid=31ce7ee9355280ccbb719b688d603881
0 Replies
 
InfraBlue
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 01:55 pm
Mullah Krekar's, Ansar's founder, credibility has not been tested in regard to his claims about ties between Ansar and the US government. Norway dropped terrorist charges against him for lack of evidence, and the US hasn't pursued any legal actions. Krekar claims this is so because it does not want to expose the links it had with Ansar, "al Qaeda" in Iraq.

Again, ican, I'm surprised that you find Krekar's claims hard to believe given the US' history with these types of individuals and organizations (e.g. Ossama and Saddam themselves!). Is it naïveté, or doublethink?

Also, the "evidence" of Powell's speech and the 9/11 Commission upon which you base your argument is self-describedly UNRELIABLE. Powell based his claims to the UN about "the potentially much more sinister nexus between Iraq and the al-Qaida terrorist network" on these unreliable intelligence reports. The 9/11 Commission after summarizing and conjecturing, and generally talking out of its ass for a good portion of its report about Saddam/al Qaeda links, reveals in the end thereof that the evidence they perused, intelligence reports, were UNRELIABLE, and that "the most detailed information alleging such ties came from an al Qaeda operative who recanted much of his original information." (National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. Notes, 2:76)

Ican, YOU read again, this time very, very carefully, what I have written about the evidence you have provided. Here are the main points, again:

Your "fact" is a non-sequitur, ican.

The prior administration's missile attacks on Iraq prior to the Bush administration's invasion of Iraq were not intended to disrupt al Qaeda in Iraq.


And because your "fact" is a non-sequitur, it is irrelevant.

Are Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom cures for AIDS? No? So what. They're not meant to be. That fact is a non-sequitur, and irrelevant.

Your conclusion, ican, is based on the non-sequitur that the government in Iraq harbored al Qaeda there. That "al Qaeda" was harbored in Iraq is one thing, that the government there harbored them is another, unproven assumption. "Al Qaeda" (it is actually Ansar al-Islam to whom you are referring) were harbored, as I've pointed out to you earlier in this thread, in Northern Iraq, beyond the reach of the government in Iraq. Their activities were sheltered and harbored by both Operation Provide Comfort and subsequently by Operation Northern Watch which enforced no-fly zones in this area of Iraq.

To reiterate succinctly, ican, your BASIC ARGUMENT is a non-sequitur and IRRELEVANT.
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 02:37 pm
ican711nm wrote:
revel wrote:
Quote:
U.S. Embassy in Iraq to Be World's Largest
Friday, February 06, 2004

[/b]
You infer from that that the alleged largest embassy in the world, occupied by 3,000 employees, will be used by the US to occupy the whole of Iraq forever Question Shocked

I infer from that that the US plans to make damn sure it knows for sure and quickly if the new Iraqi government resumes:
1. murdering its own people;
2. developing WMD;
3. harboring al Qaeda or other terrorists.

revel wrote:
I assume that fox news is acceptable by you?


Only half the time, but that's a significant edge over most of the other broadcast and cable news media. :wink:[/quote]

Paying attention that is double quoted; I infer from this that such a large presence in Iraq more than likely gives the impression of an occupation to the people in Iraq. If they have that impression they might not be impressed with thinking that elections will get Americans out of their country. They may think that since we have such a large presence in Iraq for the foreseeable future that any government that they have or any decisions that they make could be trumped by our large presence in Iraq since we do have Weapons of Mass destruction and they do not have Weapons of Mass Destruction. Once such a puppet government takes hold and it is pretty well accepted as the way things are, it would be harder to fight than it is now. Maybe that is why there are so many "insurgents" in Iraq fighting the very people who are there to give them "freedom."

I mean it sure isn't love of Saddam Hussien so it must be hate of the United States that is driving this ever increasing insurgency and the question then becomes, why? I think it is like I said, they fear that we are there to occupy them and with good reason since we are going to have the largest embassy there that we have anywhere else. We are also going to have a lot of troops and a lot of Americans there for an indefinite time. That is bound to create an impression of an occupation rather than a mission to save and free people from an evil dictator.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 02:41 pm
InfraBlue wrote:
Also, the "evidence" of Powell's speech and the 9/11 Commission upon which you base your argument is self-describedly UNRELIABLE.
What is your evidence? What is your evidence that the reliability of your evidence is greater than the reliability of my evidence? What is the reliability of your opinion that my evidence is unreliable?

One more thing: to say evidence is unreliable is not the same thing as to say evidence is unconfirmed or is uncertain. Please provide me a reference in my references that say the evidence I offered is unreliable.


Quote:
Your "fact" is a non-sequitur, ican.

The prior administration’s missile attacks on Iraq prior to the Bush administration’s invasion of Iraq were not intended to disrupt al Qaeda in Iraq.

Clinton's intentions are irrelevant. My fact follows from the absence of any one's claim these attacks disrupted al Qaeda. Your alleged non sequitur is itself a nonsequitur.

The application of my FACT ought to be self-evident. Since the al Qaeda in Iraq were not disrupted by the prior administration’s missile attacks on Iraq, then any disruption that did subsequently occur had to be caused by other events (e.g., the Kurds).

www.m-w.com
Quote:
Main Entry: non se·qui·tur
Pronunciation: 'nän-'se-kw&-t&r also -"tur
Function: noun
Etymology: Latin, it does not follow
1 : an inference that does not follow from the premises; specifically : a fallacy resulting from a simple conversion of a universal affirmative proposition or from the transposition of a condition and its consequent
2 : a statement (as a response) that does not follow logically from anything previously said


Because your allegation is a non sequitur, it is logically vacuous.


InfraBlue wrote:
Your conclusion, ican, is based on the non-sequitur that the government in Iraq harbored al Qaeda there. That "al Qaeda" was harbored in Iraq is one thing, that the government there harbored them is another, unproven assumption. "Al Qaeda" (it is actually Ansar al-Islam to whom you are referring) were harbored, as I've pointed out to you earlier in this thread, in Northern Iraq, beyond the reach of the government in Iraq. Their activities were sheltered and harbored by both Operation Provide Comfort and subsequently by Operation Northern Watch which enforced no-fly zones in this area of Iraq.


I read your allegations again very carefully. So far you have provided zero evidence to support them. You have provided only your opinion (or perhaps the opinion of someone else to whom you adhere, but have not yet identified). The evidence I provided, such as it is, implies your allegations are false. I agree I have not proven my allegations but I have provided evidence, the evidence of expert opinion, and not merely my own opinion, that supports my allegations.

In conclusion, your basic argument is nothing more than your or someone else's unsupported opinion and is therefore no argument at all.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 02:51 pm
Quote:
Main Entry: vac·u·ous
Pronunciation: vakyws
Function: adjective
Etymology: Latin vacuus
1 : emptied of or lacking content (as of air or gas) <vacuous spaces>
2 : marked by or indicative of mental vacuity or lack of ideas or intelligence : lacking substance : thin in intellectual content : DULL, STUPID, INANE <a vacuous mind> <a vacuous expression> <a vacuous play>
3 : devoid of serious occupation : spent in inanities or frivolity : IDLE
4 : containing no element, point, or member : NULL -- used of a class in mathematics or logic
synonym see EMPTY

"vacuous." Webster's Third New International Dictionary, Unabridged. Merriam-Webster, 2002. http://unabridged.merriam-webster.com (14 Nov. 2004).
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 03:14 pm
revel wrote:
I infer from this that such a large presence in Iraq more than likely gives the impression of an occupation to the people in Iraq.
First of all it hasn't happened yet. Second, 3,000 employees in a country of 25 million is hardly a large presence. 3,000 employees is less than 15% of the number of employees that once occupied the World Trade Center Towers. However, if the new Iraqi government were to want us to not finish building our embassy or to vacate it after it's built, then we must and will leave. I think the Iraqis are sophisticated enough to realize our embassy staff will be zero treat to their security.That of course, is merely my opinion.

revel wrote:
I mean it sure isn't love of Saddam Hussien so it must be hate of the United States that is driving this ever increasing insurgency and the question then becomes, why? I think it is like I said, they fear that we are there to occupy them ...


First of all, you are extrapolating the motives of a relatively small group to be the motives of a majority of the Iraqis people. Based on what? Secondly, the small group of insurgents are made up principally of foreigners (e.g., Syrians and Iranians) and those Iraqis who lost their employment and powers in Saddam's tyrannical regime. Thirdly, this is the same crowd that helped Saddam murder his fellow cirizens, pursue the development of WMD, and harbor al Qaeda. Of course they are putting up a strong fight. Without those jobs and their former power, they are no better off than the typical Iraqi civilian. I for one do not want us, in our own enlightened self-interest, to leave Iraq until those people are exterminated or reformed.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 03:29 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Quote:
Main Entry: vac·u·ous
Pronunciation: vakyws
Function: adjective
Etymology: Latin vacuus
1 : emptied of or lacking content (as of air or gas) <vacuous spaces>
2 : marked by or indicative of mental vacuity or lack of ideas or intelligence : lacking substance : thin in intellectual content : DULL, STUPID, INANE <a vacuous mind> <a vacuous expression> <a vacuous play>
3 : devoid of serious occupation : spent in inanities or frivolity : IDLE
4 : containing no element, point, or member : NULL -- used of a class in mathematics or logic
synonym see EMPTY

"vacuous." Webster's Third New International Dictionary, Unabridged. Merriam-Webster, 2002. http://unabridged.merriam-webster.com (14 Nov. 2004).
Laughing
OK Walter, thank you. I should not have used the word vacuous. I should have been more explicit and written:

Because your statements do not appear to follow from anything, they are not credible to me.
0 Replies
 
InfraBlue
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 03:49 pm
My evidence that the evidence used by Powell and the 9/11 Commission is unreliable is the 9/11 Commission's own words, ican. Read carefully now:

"We have seen other intelligence reports at the CIA about 1999 con-tacts.They are consistent with the conclusions we provide in the text, and their reliability is uncertain."

". . . the most detailed information alleging such ties came from an al Qaeda operative who recanted much of his original information."

"Two senior Bin Ladin associates have adamantly denied that any such ties existed between al Qaeda and Iraq."

These are the statements made in full concerning the unreliability of said evidence by the 9/11 Commission in their report:

Notes 2:76
CIA analytic report,"Ansar al-Islam:Al Qa'ida's Ally in Northeastern Iraq," CTC 2003-40011CX, Feb. 1, 2003. See also DIA analytic report,"Special Analysis: Iraq's Inconclusive Ties to Al-Qaida," July 31, 2002; CIA analytic report,"Old School Ties," Mar. 10, 2003.We have seen other intelligence reports at the CIA about 1999 con-tacts.They are consistent with the conclusions we provide in the text, and their reliability is uncertain. Although there have been suggestions of contacts between Iraq and al Qaeda regarding chemical weapons and explosives training, the most detailed information alleging such ties came from an al Qaeda operative who recanted much of his original information. Intelligence report, interrogation of al Qaeda operative, Feb. 14, 2004.Two senior Bin Ladin associates have adamantly denied that any such ties existed between al Qaeda and Iraq. Intelligence reports, interrogations of KSM and Zubaydah, 2003 (cited in CIA letter, response to Douglas Feith memorandum,"Requested Modifications to 'Summary of Body of Intelligence Reporting on Iraq-al Qaida Contacts (1990-2003),'" Dec. 10, 2003, p. 5).

Notice how one of the reports the 9/11 Commission used to talk out of its ass was titled Special Analysis: Iraq's Inconclusive Ties to Al-Qaida.

When one says that something's reliability is uncertain, they are therefor saying that something is unreliable.

Clinton's intentions are irrelevant to your argument, ican, but your argument is irrelevant in and of itself.

Fact: Ansar al-Islam operated in the Northern area of Iraq, in Kurdistan.

Fact: Iraqi Kurdistan was beyond the reach of the Sadddam government.

Fact: Operations Provide Comfort and Northern Watch sheltered and harbored the activities of Ansar.

Fact: The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), principle enemies of Ansar al-Islam in Iraqi Kurdistan, deny that there was collusion between Ansar and Baghdad.

Fact: "Al Qaeda" (the founder of Ansar al-Islam, Mullah Krekar) alleges ties with the US government.

My argument, based on first hand statements and expert and authoritative opinions, is credible and stands in and of itself, your incredulity notwithstanding, ican.
0 Replies
 
InfraBlue
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 03:56 pm
I suspect that the al Qaeda operative referred to in the 9/11 report was tourtured, and subsequently recanted much of his original information.
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 03:57 pm
OCCOM BILL wrote:
McTag wrote:
Yes, a statute of limitations would be convenient, to some.

"Okay, yes officer, I shot the guy. But hey, he's dead now. Can't we just forget about it?"
Ya, like you. I'm guessing you'd like it short enough to make Saddam no longer responsible for the hundreds of thousands of people he ordered murdered. (It's too late to undo that, too, btw... but justice is finally going to be served). That, too, has no bearing on our current predicament.

Do you advocate us leaving now?


Bill, that cheese is seeping into your brain. You shouldn't need me to tell you that reply is an avoidance, straw man, non-sequitur.

No, as previous posts of mine mention, I see no alternative to going on with the military solution. To leave now is not a credible option.

In general, this thread has ceased to engage me, and I will now leave.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 04:42 pm
Quote:
U.S. military says Iraqi aid not needed in Falluja

FALLUJA, Iraq, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. military said on Sunday it saw no need for the Iraqi Red Crescent to deliver aid to people inside Falluja and said it did not think any Iraqi civilians were trapped inside the city.

"There is no need to bring (Red Crescent) supplies in because we have supplies of our own for the people," said U.S. Marine Colonel Mike Shupp. "Now that the bridge (into Falluja) is open I will bring out casualties and all aid work can be done here (at Falluja's hospital)."

He said he had not heard of any Iraqi civilians being trapped inside the city and did not think that was the case.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 05:09 pm
InfraBlue wrote:
My evidence that the evidence used by Powell and the 9/11 Commission is unreliable is the 9/11 Commission's own words, ican. Read carefully now:

"We have seen other intelligence reports at the CIA about 1999 con-tacts.They are consistent with the conclusions we provide in the text, and their reliability is uncertain."

What: "their reliability is uncertain" Exclamation Your quote does not say those intelligence reports are unreliable. It says their reliability is uncertain.

Clearly there exists here a need for a short philosophical digression.

I bet, but I am not certain, that no one can prove anything to a certainty unless one makes at least one assumption that one cannot prove to a certainty. For example, one must at least assume here that the intelligence officer is certain that what he actually perceives is actually a valid perception of reality. So I observe, everything is uncertain to some degree. So what else is new? Please read my signature.

Now if you want to dispute that, go ahead. Let's have fun.

Back to the discussion at hand. The comment you quoted was not about the Commission's own conclusion, but only about a CIA conclusion.

InfraBlue wrote:
". . . the most detailed information alleging such ties came from an al Qaeda operative who recanted much of his original information."

"Two senior Bin Ladin associates have adamantly denied that any such ties existed between al Qaeda and Iraq."

What ties? Were they writing about the probable fact that the Saddams did not participate in the planning or execution of 9/11 or of any of the other Al Qaeda terrorist attacks? Or are they writing about the probable (or if you like, the improbable) fact that al Qaeda were harbored in Iraq with the knowledge and willingness of the Saddams. I bet they were writing about the former and not the latter. Check it out!

InfraBlue wrote:
When one says that something's reliability is uncertain, they are therefor saying that something is unreliable.

I adamantly disagree. All intelligence is uncertain to some degree, generally to a significant degree. When one states that something's reliability is uncertain they are merely stating a truism to layman ignorant of the nature of intelligence. If one were to estimate a probability of truth of 99%, one would probably bet it's true. On the other hand, if one's estimate were 1%, one would probably bet it's untrue. Even intelligence about what is alleged to have been witnessed directly by an intelligence officer is uncertain. What one must ask is what is the most probable truth? To arrive at a practical conclusion one must ultimately bet (i.e., take a chance) on what is actually most probably true.

Reliable intelligence information is by its very nature generally uncertain: that is, its probability of truth generally falls somewhere between greater than 1% and less than 99%. It usually requires an intelligence officer with a good intuition to make the right decision.

I bet the information presented in the references I posted is true with a large enough probability to warrant the conclusion that if the Saddams were not removed and were allowed to remain in power, al Qaeda harbored now and in future in Iraq would by the end of 2004 be the source of terrorists that perpetrate additional 9/11 magnitude, or greater, attacks on the US. But worse yet, after only a couple of years after sanctions on Iraq were partially lifted, at least one such attack would probably be perpetrated on the US with chemical or biological WMD.

You apparently would bet otherwise.

You are not persuasive, since it's been my experience that those who wait for apparent certainty before they act generally act too late. Worse, many such people generally die or are seriously injured when they could have avoided both by acting properly sooner in the face of an uncertain but probable occurrence.

I leave you with this one question. If you were responsible for the welfare of a large population, would you wait for near certainty of harm before you acted to protect them from that harm?
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 05:20 pm
InfraBlue wrote:
I suspect that the al Qaeda operative referred to in the 9/11 report was tourtured, and subsequently recanted much of his original information.


So you believe he falsified the truth as he believed it when he was being tortured, but told the truth as he believed it subsequently when he was not being tortured?

Smile
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 05:28 pm
Washington Post: Fighting for Minds in Fallujah
By Jim Hoagland
Thursday, November 11, 2004; Page A37

Quote:
President Bush unleashed the U.S. Marines in Fallujah and Don Rumsfeld at the Pentagon within days of securing a second term. A campaign season of playing it safe on Iraq makes way now for a concerted effort to find a new political order and a different military direction in the war there.

The grim task of retaking Fallujah will help determine the viability of Bush's renewed effort and of the American military presence in Iraq, which cannot remain static. This is where Rumsfeld, relatively taciturn of late, strides back into the picture.

In one sense a visitor to the defense secretary's cavernous office can catch a glimpse of the ultimate goal for which the Marines and Army units have been fighting in Fallujah by glancing at a glass-topped conference table.

Beneath the glass lies a sample ballot from Afghanistan's presidential election. Given to Rumsfeld last month by Hamid Karzai, the election's winner, the ballot represents for the secretary a telling American political and military success in the war on terrorism -- and a future that could soon be in the grasp of Iraqis.

Retaking Fallujah is intended to help clear the way for Iraqi elections in January. But as Rumsfeld pointed out to his theater commanders in a well-publicized memo on "metrics" a year ago, measuring success in this kind of operation is no easy or sure thing.

The key targets of the renewed offensive in the Sunni heartland are not in fact the headline numbers of insurgents killed or captured, or bomb factories seized or obliterated. As Americans learned to their grief in Vietnam, such physical measurements are elusive and illusory in guerrilla warfare. Guerrillas fade away to fight in another place another day.

Fallujah is part of a battle for minds rather than "hearts and minds." In the four Sunni provinces that are in bloody revolt against the U.S. occupation force and the interim government of Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, the most important immediate objective is to dissuade Sunni townspeople from joining, supporting or tolerating the insurrection.

The price they will pay for doing so is being illustrated graphically in the streets of Fallujah. But what follows this demonstration of firepower's effect -- that is, what Allawi's unsteady and unpopular administration can do to convince the Sunnis and others in Iraq that they have a stake in peaceful elections in January -- will be the decisive part of this struggle.

That conclusion is reflected not only in the visible importance the Pentagon's boss attaches to Afghanistan's ballot but also in the stunningly clear words spoken Oct. 8 by Lt. Gen. James T. Conway, the Marine commander at April's aborted battle for Fallujah. Conway, who is now director of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said this in a speech at the George P. Shultz Lecture Series in San Francisco:

"I believe there will be elections in Iraq in January and I suspect very shortly afterwards you will start to see a reduction in U.S. forces -- not because U.S. planners will seek it but rather because the Iraqis will demand it.

"I used to think that Americans were impatient," Conway continued, "but we don't hold a candle to the Iraqis. We are seen as infidels and nonbelievers and, further, most Iraqis now consider us occupiers. They will expect us to provide regional security for a long time, because we have destroyed their army. But they will be willing to accept risk as regards internal security, in exchange for a reduced coalition presence. I think our strategic planners have got it right."

A Pentagon civilian echoes Conway's judgment: "The commanders have told us consistently that they want fewer American troops, not more. Having more troops means more targets, more force protection, more occupiers. Having fewer Americans lets Iraqis take on the duties themselves."

Doing more with less is the overwhelming lesson of Afghanistan, Rumsfeld constantly reminds aides. The performance of the several thousand newly trained Iraqi soldiers who accompanied the division-size Marine force into Fallujah is the other essential part of the demonstration effect there, as Rumsfeld hinted in a Pentagon news conference on Monday.

It was his first briefing for Defense Department reporters since Sept. 7. Asked about his absence from the podium, Rumsfeld said Bush had asked him and Secretary of State Colin Powell to keep low profiles during the campaign.

That enabled the White House to practice tighter damage control on foreign and defense policy. But such caution also granted the insurgents time to prepare. The costs this may have involved will only now become clear as the key battles for the Sunni heartland begin in earnest.


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0 Replies
 
InfraBlue
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 06:47 pm
I don't believe that the commission was being redundant for the sake of the layman, ican. It is true that the certainty of intelligence varies by degrees. That goes without saying. To explicitly point out that the reliability of specific data and reports is uncertain further removes said data from reliability. To have used said data for propagandistic purposes to sell a war to the public is insidious.

In the 9/11 Commission report, notes 2:76 are a reference to chapter 2.5 in which the commission alleges ties between al Qaeda and Iraq, and concessions are made that to that date they had seen no evidence that these or the earlier contacts ever developed into a collaborative operational relationship--this would include harboring--nor had they seen evidence indicating that Iraq cooperated with al Qaeda in developing or carrying out any attacks against the United States. The notes themselves refer to reports that explicitly state that Iraq's ties--this would include harboring--to al-Qaeda are inconclusive, and to an al Qaeda operative who recanted much of his original information suggesting contacts between Iraq and al Qaeda regarding chemical weapons and explosives training, and to two senior Bin Laden associates who further had adamantly denied any such ties.

Powell propagandized this information leading the American public to think that there was a "sinister nexus" between Saddam and al-Qaeda, "a nexus that combines classic terrorist organizations and modern methods of murder." In his statement, Powell referred to a "sinister nexus" between Iraq and al-Qaeda, leading the American public to think there was a causal link between Saddam and al-Qaeda, because he was making a case for war against Saddam not Iraq, remember, we went in for the sake of Iraq, not in spite of it. He then went on to say that Iraq harbored a deadly terrorist network headed by al-Zarqawi, an associate and collaborator of bin Laden and al-Qaeda, leading people to believe that Saddam was harboring this deadly terrorist network. Powell is a hustler par excellence.

What is closer to the truth is that the US and its coalition allies provided harbor, inadvertently, to "al-Qaeda" in Iraqi Kurdistan by way of their Operations Provide Comfort and Northern Watch.

I would opt for increased national defense, increased police surveillance, a restructuring of the intelligence offices.

I would not wage an offensive war on based on explicitly stated inconclusive intelligence who's reliability is uncertain, and would remove ideological motivations from the collection of intelligence.

I certianly wouldn't bet on such information.
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Nov, 2004 06:57 pm
Terrorism is the boogeyman with no teeth, In the USA over 20,000 deaths occur every year from accidents in the home. I demand HOMEland security to protect us from ourselves. To hell with the Al Queda lets invade everyone's bathroom (for their own good) placing Gideon's bibles on the toilet tanks.
0 Replies
 
 

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