Bernie's In

@Blickers,

That is my point. The worst things most Presidents can do will never happen because they are not kings.

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@Olivier5,

We'd have better success deciphering the ideas of Bernie's supporters if their charges had any relationship to reality. Constantly pushing Michelle Alexander's accusation of Clinton imprisoning a whole generation of black youth while NEVER mentioning that his policies turned an accelerating black murder rate into a 30% DECLINE by the end of his term makes even the effort to do so seem less than worthwhile.

1 Reply

@Blickers,

I think it's much easier to misunderstand each others that to actually try and listen. That's what explains most of the so-called "misunderstandings" here. People are just pretending not to understand what the other is saying.

I've seen you try to make that case about crime, but how do we know for sure that B Clinton's policies made a difference on crime, as opposed to something else? I remember reading (in Freakeconomics) that the legalization of abortion 20 years sooner could have played a role... There could be many factors.

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@Olivier5,

Olivier5 wrote:

I've seen you try to make that case, but how do we know for sure that B Clinton's policies made a difference on crime, as opposed to something else? I remember reading (in Freakeconomics) that the legalization of abortion 20 years sooner could have played a role... There could be many factors.

There's also the fact that incarceration rates were rising due to state policies even before the Clinton Crime Bill was passed.

How do we know the full extent of the crime bill if rates were already going up?

I mean, look at this graph!

http://media2.policymic.com/9ea649599002beed632840592a407cff.png

1 Reply

@maporsche,

The technical answer is: you try to include in your data all possible variables that could have played a role, and you run massive regressions. In practice, it's pretty hard to do.

Edit: as an illustration of the point above, your graph would need to be plotted in terms of % of the total US population, because one obvious factor that could play a role is demography. But to me, it seems like there's no inflexion point in the curve when Clinton is elected/passes his bills, and thus it doesn't LOOK like he played much of a role.

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@Olivier5,

Olivier5 wrote:

The technical answer is: you try to include in your data all possible variables that could have played a role, and you run massive regressions. In practice, it's pretty hard to do.

And the answer will be "no one knows".

You make the best decisions you can, with the best data you have, and you reevaluate as time passes. That's all anyone can do.

Which is WHY it's so damn frustrating to see people using the hindsight of 25 years passage of time to claim that the crime bill was a failure and led to the incarceration of millions more people.

1 Reply

@Olivier5,

Olivier5 wrote:

Edit: as an illustration of the point above, your graph would need to be plotted in terms of % of the total US population, because one obvious factor that could play a role is demography.

Same trend.

http://static.prisonpolicy.org/images/state_driver_rates_1925-2012.jpg?v=1

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@maporsche,

It's only fair to evaluate past policies based on their seeming outcomes, as long a one does a reasonnable effort at controling for extraenous variable. If you're saying that it's done here as a hachet job, I agree.

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@Olivier5,

Yet Michelle Alexander and her adherents amongst the Bernie boosters don't bother with such subtlety and just lay the blame on Clinton for black youth getting incarcerated. If they are going to do that-and that is exactly what they are doing-I am going to simply point out the DECLINE in black murders during Clinton's term. I wonder-how precisely does one head off an accelerating murder rampage without making added incarcerations at least part of the picture?
Black Murder Victims Per Year
Under Bush I
1987......8,998
1988......9,956
1989.....10,566
1990.....11,487
1991.....12,227
1992.....11,777

Bill Clinton Takes Office
1993.....12,433
1994.....11,854
1995.....10,442
1996.......9,473
1997.......8,841
1998.......7,933
1999.......7,139
2000.......7,425

Under Bush I's last year murder rate of black victims, there would be 94,216 black people murdered in the years 1993 through 2000. Instead, under Bill Clinton only 75,540 black people were murdered in those years. Bill Clinton's presidency saved over 18,000 black lives.

1 Reply

@maporsche,

Now that's an interesting graph. It differentiates between state and federal prisons, showing that federal laws may have played a limitted role. Would be even more enlightning to look at the states that contributed the most to the rise, and try and decypher what the reason could be.

Also to try and zoom on the federal data only, to see if the curve inflexes after Clinton comes into the picture.

Anyway, all this to point at the fact that tying policy to outcomes is much more complicated that some people assume.

1 Reply

@Blickers,

And you don't bother anymore than they do...

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@Olivier5,

Olivier5 wrote:

Would be even more enlightning to look at the states that contributed the most to the rise, and try and decypher what the reason could be.

more links at the site that graphic came from

http://www.prisonpolicy.org/

Quote:

Unpacking mass incarceration
Learn about the national prison crisis and how we can begin to turn the tide on mass incarceration. Then, drill down to your state.

i.e. Michigan http://www.prisonpolicy.org/profiles/MI.html

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@Olivier5,

That's not exactly what I meant to say. Of course it's fair and expected to evaluate policies. But like you mentioned it's rather more complicated. Also, there are 25 years of other laws and policies implemented by congress, states, other presidents, etc that have influence long after Clinton signed the law and left office

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@Olivier5,

Quote Olivier 5:

Quote:

And you don't bother anymore than they do...

Neither do you. You had no problems with the Bernie people laying the blame on Clinton for mass incarceration until I also pointed out that a huge decline in black murder victims also happened during Clinton's watch.

Besides, the fact that there is no notch in the incarceration rate coinciding with Clinton's term does not mean that OTHER circumstances-such as 2 Million new Full Time jobs filled per year under Clinton-also did not factor into the decline in murders during his term.

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@maporsche,

maporsche wrote:

after Clinton signed the law and left office

and before

many of the state numbers seem to start moving up in the 1970's

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@ehBeth,

Thanks for the link. This graph (sorry, can't paste the jpg with this device) seems to indicate a SLIGHT inflexion point afyer Clinton came into office, which would plead for his policies to have worsenned a preexisting trend.

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@Blickers,

Blickers wrote:

Quote Olivier 5:

Quote:
And you don't bother anymore than they do...

Neither do you. You had no problems with the Bernie people laying the blame on Clinton for mass incarceration until I also pointed out that a huge decline in black murder victims also happened during Clinton's watch.

I'm just as partial as anybody else but this is unfair: I did not even touched this topic until now.

Quote:

Besides, the fact that there is no notch in the incarceration rate coinciding with Clinton's term does not mean that OTHER circumstances-such as 2 Million new Full Time jobs filled per year under Clinton-also did not factor into the decline in murders during his term.

Job creation would arguably lead to reduced crime. So i think that's a good argument.

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Destroying so many lives by mass incarceration only shifts the crimes around. Does not really reduce any, despite such graphs.

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@edgarblythe,

edgarblythe wrote:

Destroying so many lives by mass incarceration only shifts the crimes around. Does not really reduce any, despite such graphs.

Are you suggesting that crime has not been reduced?

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Much of the crime becomes systematic injustice by the legal system, thank you politicians.

1 Reply

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