Last election cycle, one of the regular comments was that people didn't care who the Democratic candidate was (both seemed ok), and that voting for the least crazy Republican nominee during the primary was the best option. It always made a lot of sense to me. Still does. I'd probably be one of those people if I was in the US .
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Blickers
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Wed 16 Mar, 2016 09:15 am
@revelette2,
Quote revellette:
Quote:
Unions might favor Bernie, but I am not sure immigrants do. Most of the immigrants in Ohio are Middle Eastern? Probably Trump talking about banning all Muslims "trumped" every other consideration. I'm just guessing, didn't watch the whole video.
I think the report said that neighborhoods in Ohio that had voted Democratic for generations were having family meetings and deciding to cross over in the primary to defeat Trump. I'm not from Ohio, but in my experience that means the people who came over from Europe in the first half of the 20th Century and who went to work in the factories-often union factories-and voted Democratic because they are pro-union. By the way, about 60% of the white population of America are descended from those who came over from Europe in the first half of the 20th Century. In New Hampshire, it was found that those type of voters were favorable to Bernie.
I'm not saying this factor made the difference, but I think there is a reasonable possibility it did.
Okay, those figures are illuminating. But we don't know the Democratic choice of those Democrats who crossed over to the GOP primary to vote against Trump. I'm not saying they would have gone for Bernie necessarily, but we don't know.
By the way, I'm for Hillary, (though I like Bernie I think Hillary will do better in the general election), I'm just trying to see how this thing might play out.
We don't even know if anyone crossed over for that matter.
But let's for a moment assume that 6% of the Dem voters crossed over to vote for Kasich. Bernie would have had 46% of the vote instead of 42% if that was true and they all would have voted for him if they had stayed in the Dem primary. That would mean a change of about 4 delegates. Instead of 68-55 it would have been 65-58 for delegate count using the proportion of victory to allocate the regular delegates.
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revelette2
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Wed 16 Mar, 2016 09:51 am
@Blickers,
Quote:
I think the report said that neighborhoods in Ohio that had voted Democratic for generations were having family meetings and deciding to cross over in the primary to defeat Trump. I'm not from Ohio, but in my experience that means the people who came over from Europe in the first half of the 20th Century and who went to work in the factories-often union factories-and voted Democratic because they are pro-union. By the way, about 60% of the white population of America are descended from those who came over from Europe in the first half of the 20th Century. In New Hampshire, it was found that those type of voters were favorable to Bernie.
I think you may be underestimating the Arab immigrant population in Ohio.
Quote:
Arab immigrants began coming to the U.S. in sizable numbers during the 1880’s. Today, it is estimated that nearly 3.6 million Americans trace their roots to an Arab country. Arab Americans are found in every state, but more than two thirds of them live in just ten states: California, Michigan, New York, Florida, Texas, New Jersey, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Metropolitan Los Angeles, Detroit, and New York are home to one-third of the population.
Arab Americans are as diverse as their countries of origin, with unique immigration experiences that have shaped their ethnic identity in the U.S. While the majority of Arab Americans descend from the first wave of mostly Christian immigrants, Arab American Muslims represent the fastest growing segment of the Arab American community.
Contrary to popular assumptions or stereotypes, the majority of Arab Americans are native-born, and nearly 82% of Arabs in the U.S. are citizens. While the community traces its roots to every Arab country, the majority of Arab Americans have ancestral ties to Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Egypt and Iraq.
AAI derives our demographic information from Census Bureau surveys, including the American Community Survey, and projections based on other surveys by reputable scholars and organizations such as Zogby International, among other sources.
It looks like it's time for the USA to give up and have minders at polling places. We have widespread and in-your-face graft.
(Already not trusting the minders...)
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Blickers
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Tue 22 Mar, 2016 06:33 pm
@edgarblythe,
Since older people are less likely to stay in line in the hot sun for hours, and Hillary's voters tend to be older on average, I would assume this helps Bernie. Blood pressure, and all that.
PS: Which is not to say that he's behind it. But it would tend to favor him.
Polling Place Locator Voters will be able to vote at any of the 60 polling places listed below in the March 22nd Presidential Preference Election.
Polling places are open from 6:00 am to 7:00 pm on election day.
Click here for the closest polling places to your mobile device
To find out the name and address of the three closest polling locations to your home address, complete the form below.
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ossobuco
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Tue 22 Mar, 2016 06:34 pm
This is sad, what seems to be happening.
I've voted almost all the times I could, primaries or generals, many decades. One time back in Los Angeles, when our polling place was a simple walk across the ordinary street from our house, in the elementary school there, the woman who checked me in said something about my not always voting. She must have looked my history up... that would have been a dozen plus years before, the Johnson election, the one time I missed.
We were a politicized neighborhood then, those years later, and not for the usual reasons. She might have disliked me for some neighborhood reason (long stories).
Yes, I missed voting one time. That was just after when I was raped. No reason for me to explain to her, but very disconcerting, all that time later. I didn't have the wit to ask how she knew I missed one election..
In fairness, I do recall that way back when voting requirements were quite strict, (people had to be registered two months in advance, before anybody but the steepest political junkies were following the election), some places had a rule that if you voted in the previous election, you did not have to register. And some places had it if you last voted two years before, you didn't have to register.
Since older people are less likely to stay in line in the hot sun for hours, and Hillary's voters tend to be older on average, I would assume this helps Bernie. Blood pressure, and all that.
PS: Which is not to say that he's behind it. But it would tend to favor him.
Is that your professional opinion, or do you just make it up as you go along. Or both?
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ossobuco
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Tue 22 Mar, 2016 06:51 pm
@Blickers,
No. We were political leaders, my husband better at it than I was. I'm not a big pusher, but on the other hand, the city asked me to be a facilitator.
The one time I missed was a dozen or more years earlier. Among our group was a woman pal who became our assemblywomen, and so on. (I've had two friends do that, actually.)
Now, years later, I think I was naive when that somehow came up when I was simply checking in to vote, with a long history of voting while registered. At the time, I took her as an old nosybody.
I won't call it intimidation exactly, just an odd inappropriate taunt.
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edgarblythe
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Tue 22 Mar, 2016 07:10 pm
Did Bill Clinton mean what he said, Monday?
At a campaign stop for Hillary Clinton, Former President Bill Clinton referred to the last eight years of administration as an "awful legacy" but never mentioned President Obama's name. Now, Clinton's aid denies the statement was about Obama. USA TODAY
Former President Bill Clinton, stumping on behalf of his wife in Washington state on Monday, urged people to vote for Hillary Clinton “if you believe we’ve finally come to the point where we can put the awful legacy of the last eight years behind us.”
It was not initially* clear if it was an unintended gaffe or something he meant to say, but it didn’t take long for Republicans to seize on it and post the clip to YouTube. Here’s the full quote:
“I literally from the time I met her 45 years ago ‘til we talked yesterday, she is the best change-maker I have ever known. She always finds a way to make something good happen, to make people feel empowered, to buy people into the process, to make democracy work the way the framers intended for it to work.
Now, if you don’t believe we can all grow together again, if you don’t believe we're ever going to grow again, if you believe it’s more important to re-litigate the past, there may be many reasons that you don’t want to support her.
But if you believe we can all rise together, if you believe we’ve finally come to the point where we can put the awful legacy of the last eight years behind us and the seven years before that when we were practicing trickle-down economics and no regulation in Washington, which is what caused the crash, then you should vote for her because she’s the only person who basically had good ideas will tell you how she’s going to pay for them, can be commander in chief and is a proven change maker with republicans and democrats and independents alike.”
*Update: An aide to Bill Clinton says the legacy he was referring to was Republicans' obstructionism.
"When Republicans controlled the White House, their trickle-down approach drove our economy to the brink of a collapse. After President Obama was elected, Republicans made it their number one goal to block him at every turn," spokesman Angel Urena said in a statement. "That unprecedented obstruction these last eight years is their legacy, and the American people should reject it by electing Hillary Clinton to build on President Obama's success so we can all grow and succeed together."
Bill Clinton is bright enough to know how to speak about the "last eight years awful legacy," if that's not what he meant. He doesn't get a pass on this one.
Quote:
*Update: An aide to Bill Clinton says the legacy he was referring to was Republicans' obstructionism.
An aide? Come on! What was so difficult about saying it was about "Republicans' obstructionism?"
Not speaking for Edgar at all, but it is remembered that Clinton was insultingly horrible re Obama - didn't he make a disgusting remark to Ted Kennedy trying to get Kennedy support for Hillary against Obama? I mean, I've heard it, but if you didn't, I don't want to be the one to bring it up.
Acting like Clinton is above taking a swipe at O, though, is naive.
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snood
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Tue 22 Mar, 2016 07:40 pm
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:
Bill Clinton is bright enough to know how to speak about the "last eight years awful legacy," if that's not what he meant. He doesn't get a pass on this one.
So, you think that he is consciously going against the manifest strategy of Hillary to hug close to Obama's legacy?
