2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

mamajuana wrote:

Sounds like the republicans are running scared of Dean. Despite all their talking up of Lieberman (he was THEIR candidate), its not working.quote]

A minor point. Lieberman is the Dem candidate most Republicans would vote for if they had to choose a Dem.

I'm sure the President and Co. would MUCH rather face Dean than Lieberman in the General.

If Lieberman ran strong and got the Dem nomination--Bush could lose some dissatisfied middlers (GOP, conservatives, indies) to Lieberman. He won't lose any to Dean.

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No, sofia, actually in a lot of internal polls Lieberman runs maybe third. First are Dean and Kerry, with Gephardt making a surprise showing. Lieberman is having a difficult time getting both the people and the money, and will most likely drop out if he doesn't make a respectable showing in the first two primaries.

Now, are any of you REALLY going to VOTE for Lieberman? An increasing number of republicans I know are looking at Dean. They like the idea of a crusty fighter, and some of them have read more about him than some democrats. Most of us know that many republicans touted Lieberman because they thought he would be easiest to beat, on many grounds.

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Two things the Reps are doing -- on talk shows, in A2K and around and about: They are insisting that Dean is far to the left (taking the trouble to deliberately paint him the wrong color because they fear him) and, while pretending to laugh at Dean, promoting Lieberman (whom they know is increasingly unpopular). It ain't working. I've been hearing (and on Bill Maher, watching), Dems catching on to this and simply applying ridicule to those self-conscious Republican spokespeople whose rigamarole is now making them smile weakly as they lie and look embarrassed.

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Graham is making noises like he's leaving, and Clark is about to jump in. Thirty days, I give both.

Then they will rank (in order) Dean, Kerry, Gephardt (because of his union endorsements), and Clark with a bullet.

Edwards, despite the Big Dog's behind-the-curtains help, seems stuck in the mud. He is never mentioned in the media. Ever. It's like he's invisible.

Lieberman needs to smell the coffee and fold it up before he burns any more bridges. This isn't his time.

Kucinich, Moseley-Braun, and Sharpton add spice to the stew but can only hope to influence the party platform and speak at the convention.

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Important: On the Diane Rehm show (first hour, wamu.org) a discussion of Ashcroft's effort to add meat to the Patriot Act. The deputy AG who quit is on right now.

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Hi goys and birls! ...take a look at this:

"Dean Jumps into Lead Among Democrats in New Hampshire"

Bolstered by television advertising, Vermont Governor

Howard Dean has jumped into the lead in ballot preference

and favorability among likely Democratic primary voters in

the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference

Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In

ballot preference, Dean leads with 28% to 21% for Senator

John Kerry and 10% for Congressman Dick Gephardt. As for

candidate favorability, 63% of likely Democratic primary

voters have a favorable opinion of Dean, 61% have a

favorable opinion of Kerry, and 47% have a favorable

opinion of Gephardt.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

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Verrrrrry interesting, Jorge.

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Tartarin wrote:

Two things the Reps are doing -- on talk shows, in A2K and around and about: They are insisting that Dean is far to the left (taking the trouble to deliberately paint him the wrong color because they fear him) and, while pretending to laugh at Dean, promoting Lieberman (whom they know is increasingly unpopular). It ain't working. I've been hearing (and on Bill Maher, watching), Dems catching on to this and simply applying ridicule to those self-conscious Republican spokespeople whose rigamarole is now making them smile weakly as they lie and look embarrassed.

Tartarin,

I thought you might get a chuckle out of this Dean quotation:

"How is the Democratic governor of the 49th-largest state going to beat George Bush? George W. Bush is a borrow-and-spend liberal, and I tell people that I'm going to beat George W. Bush by running to his right. "

-- Gov Howard Dean

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Pollsters of import say that regardless of where Bush is in polls, he faces a 50/50 electorate at best because Dems just don't like him, don't trust him. He is always on the defensive because his #1 issue of the day is built to overshadow the #1 issue of 3 days ago that is just now being realized as a lie.

The people are starting to see this. I know a bunch of diehard life long Reps who say they will vote for anyone except Bush. Bush is hurting!!!!! The Bush Regime want Lieberman because they know they can beat him - they don't want Dean, the unknown and one who has been against Bush on everything; no voting record to explain.

Yeah, I really trust a Rep who tells me who I should vote for and why; get real!!!!!!!

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Well, another point to consider, sofia. Dean (and the dems, except maybe Lieberman), aren't going for the republicans to vote for him. The democratic base is there, and one of the ideas is to solidify it. To get out all the democratic voters. Remember, there are a lot of us. And we're becoming more energized, more spirited, more purposeful. This is obvious. Those who nay-say haven't chosen to look.Any republican is a plus. And since more and more republicans are voicing dissatisfaction, some may vote deomocratic. But those aren't the ones who would vote for Lieberman. They are the ones trying to get rid of Bush.

Now the republicans are beginning to have trouble with a base. They are dividing. And what they don't like looking at is the coming together of the democrats.

BTW, I think Sharpton, Mosley-Braun, maybe one or two others have already started working out their deals. I always thought Sharpton was in it to be a rainmaker. And Edwards is a lightweight. My disappointment is Graham.

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I think Graham is a VP candidate mamaj - anyway, Dean and Graham I see as a winning combination - I also like the look of Young in Georgia.

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"I know a bunch of diehard life long Reps who say they will vote for anyone except Bush."

Me too, Bill, and this is a "heartland" Republican area.

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Just an update: Howard Dean still looks pretty good. c.i.

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I heard a debate amongst the Dems tonight. They were in unison. All putting the truth before the American people about the deceit of this government. It was very interesting!

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Sounds like they're listening to Dean, Bill.

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mamajuana said--
No, sofia, actually in a lot of internal polls Lieberman runs maybe third
------------
You must have misunderstood my post. I was alluding to the polling data which indicates Lieberman is most popular among Republicans, and his Iraq policies/comments are most popular among independents; unrelated to his ranking with the Dems. This focuses on which candidate can attract those indies and middlers, who elect the President. Your earlier post seemed to assert that it was the GOP leadership, trying to push Lieberman to the forefront of the Dem contenders. The truth is, Lieberman appeals to the GOP voters because his views are so conservative. He has the widest appeal of the centrist majority. I'm not trying to push this guy, either. I'm just prognosticating and checking polls.

Bustamente was mentioned on the thread. New numbers say he's taken a plunge.

edit-- But, he won't do well in the Dem primaries, I don't think. The General election is where his strength would come through--but he may not make it there.

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Lieberman would not succeed in getting out the Dem voters in the general election. This is why the Repub leaders want him!

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BillW wrote:

Lieberman would not succeed in getting out the Dem voters in the general election. This is why the Repub leaders want him!

Whoever the Dem nominee is in 2004 he will have a real fight on his hands. The republicans are gearing up for a tough grassroots battle:

'...After a series of elections that hinged on just a few votes, many political pros have concluded that it will take much more than television ads to compete in 2004. They are planning to seek votes the old-fashioned way, one by one.
"We want to build the strongest grassroots organization of any presidential campaign in modern political history," said Ralph Reed, the former Georgia Republican Party chairman who is regional chairman for President Bush's re-election campaign in the Southeast....'

(above is from Dean's blog this a.m.)
http://www.blogforamerica.com/

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I'm really impatient for this thing to get going. Isn't the first primary in January? (Seems like this is all starting so much sooner than it used to.)

I think this one is going to be more interesting than the last couple.

BillW-- You're entitled to your opinion, and you may be right, but the common wisdom is that the 40% of voters are Centrists, and as a block they are more powerful than the die-hard 20% on either side. Lieberman appeals to that 40% moreso than Bush or any of the other Dems. This has been polled and reported and certified. :wink:

Don't ask me what happened to the other 20%. They were either third party voters, unknown, or outside taking a smoke.

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You could be right, sofia. Depends on which poll you're reading when. Pew does not put Lieberman as a choice. Apparently, as the Iraqi mess goes on, more independents are beginning to view hawk eyes with less favor.

Interesting about Bustamante. And unbelievable about California. I heard and saw Arnold on tv, and he was embarrassing. Peter what's his name (I can never pronounce it) is beginning to be recognized.

And in South Dakota, looks like Janklow won't be running against Dashiell. Seems the repub rep (ex gov, ex-everything) has a penchant for speed, and managed to kill a cyclist while speeding straight past a stop sign.

I agree - I think it will be interesting too. So many unexpected things happen. And this time I rather think some democrats will be prepared for all the dirty stuff they know is coming from the republicans. Which is interesting. The repubs are broadcasting warnings about it. Listening to Grover Norquist and Haley Barbour and good old newtie and old Ralph - boy, they sure make the democrats look more virtuous.

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2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

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