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2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

 
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Feb, 2004 01:51 pm
'Nother poll ... when it comes to the national catch-all overview, Kerry and Edwards have been doing pretty much equally well against Bush in the polls, the past two weeks or so ...

http://www.pollingreport.com/images/CBSgen.GIF
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Feb, 2004 03:40 pm
Kerry-Edwards it is! They got my vote. Wink
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Feb, 2004 04:00 pm
Reality, real reality will set in Tuesday night. Mr Kerry will get enough delegates' votes to win the Dem nomination. The convention will be a non-event; just as the the Repubs selection of Mr Bush will be.
There could be some interesting twists and turns between March and November. There WILL be some twists and turns. Iraq? The economy? Gays getting married? Is this whole process fun or what!
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 29 Feb, 2004 04:04 pm
Not for the soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan, nor the gays and lesbians getting married by the thousands - to learn that this president's justification for all this chaos was the message of god, not.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 05:10 pm
No late surge for Edwards this time, it seems ...

Check out these tracking polls for Georgia and Maryland.

One: Kerry's lead among likely Democratic voters is actually widening in both states. In three days time, Kerry's lead over Edwards in Maryland went from 7% (42-35) to 12% (46-34), and in Georgia from 8% (45-37) to 10% (48-38).

Two: Edwards actually suffers distinctly lower favorability ratings than Kerry among these Democrats in the two states. In both Georgia and Marylans, Kerry scores 72% favorable vs 10-12 unfavorable; in both states, Edwards has to make do with 56-59 favorable vs 6-8 unfavorable.
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BillW
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 05:26 pm
nimh, can't really tell untill 10 pm tomorrow night central time Cool If Americans have learned one thing in the last 4 years it is that polls can not be trusted, ever again>>>>>>
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 05:39 pm
Has anyone else noticed how newspaper endorsements seemed to play a crucial role in the two states Edwards surprised most in, Iowa and Wisconsin? Both times, he got a surprising, prominent newspaper that reassured the last-minute deciders that here was a bona fide alternative.

How's it gone this time? The NYT was bound to come out for Kerry, of course, about whom its been a lot milder than other newspapers throughout. But its endorsement still trumps all others', I guess ... Any other newspaper endorsements that you know of?

----

Meanwhile, this seems surprisingly naive: St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that Edwards is "very excited" that Dean's leading volunteers in the state recommended like-minded activists to vote for him at the caucuses: "They're still a powerful force. It's a really important event."

What's up with that? Dean's once-reputed storm troopers yielded him a humiliatingly uneffective turnout drive in the Iowa caucuses, where the overwhelming majority of projected Dean caucusers didn't show up - and many of those who did, at the last moment ignored their "instructions" and voted for someone else instead. They were hardly more effective elsewhere. And now they are to turn the race to Edwards?

Both Minnesota papers do note that there's been a "surge" for Edwards in the state since the Wisconsin primary, though. But whether any of it will make any difference ... <shrugs>
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 06:51 pm
More on the Edwards/Deaniacs link here and here - all seems a bit ambivalent even for what is not perhaps all that important a semi-endorsement:

Quote:
Star Tribune: Deaniacs cheer for Edwards in St. Paul

[..] The Deaniacs met Thursday night in St. Paul to talk about whether, and whom, to endorse.

They voted privately after hearing pitches from supporters representing Edwards, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich.

Edwards got 67 votes out of 105 on ballots that featured second and third choices, and Edwards was at least the second choice on nearly all the ballots, according to an e-mailed account from the official Dean Web site. Kerry got just one first-place vote, and most of the rest were undecided or remained committed to Dean.

Notwithstanding Edwards' description of the Dean leadership's backing, Dean Minnesota co-chairman Ted Mondale said the Edwards campaign "did not get all that they wanted," which was official endorsement and "mobilization of our resources, including our database."

[..] The official statement from the Dean campaign said the vote was "not an endorsement or an order," but rather "an index of Dean supporters' feelings" and "a guide for other Howard Dean supporters."

Still, Mondale said it's clear the Dean contingent is "trending Edwards," for at least a couple of reasons. For one, many are still angry at Kerry for attacking their man before the Iowa caucuses; Edwards didn't. Another common perception is that Edwards, like Dean, is more of an outsider and antiestablishment candidate, Mondale said.

[..] Evan Cordes, a Dean-turned-Edwards supporter [..] was up on stage, cheering on his new candidate. "He seems like he does better the closer he gets to election day," said Cordes, a college student from Shoreview. "I like the positiveness of his campaign, how he's more in touch with people, less corporate than Kerry."

Demonstrating just how coveted Dean's grass-roots army remains at this point of the campaign, Kerry was receiving the support of leaders of Dean's New York campaign. [..]
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 07:16 pm
Just had to post it here: The devil made me do it.
******************************
One night, George W. Bush is tossing restlessly in his White House bed. He awakens to see George Washington standing by him. Bush asks him, "George, what's the best thing I can do to help the country?"

"Set an honest and honorable example, just as I did," Washington advises, then fades away.

The next night, Bush is astir again, and sees the ghost of Thomas Jefferson moving through the darkened bedroom.

Bush calls out, "Tom, please! What is the best thing I could do to help the country?"

"Respect the Constitution, like I did," Jefferson advises, and dims from sight.

The third night sleep is still not in the cards for Bush. He awake to see the ghost of F. D. R. hovering over his bed. Bush whispers, "Franklin, What is the best thing I could do to help the country?"

"Help the people, just like I did," FDR replies and fades into the mists.

Bush isn't sleeping well the fourth night when he sees another figure moving in the shadows. It is Abraham Lincoln's ghost.

"Abe, what is the best thing I can do right now, to help the country?" Bush pleads.

Abe replies, "Go see a play."
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 07:27 pm
The campaign for the Democratic nomination will end tomorrow - Mr Kerry will win and and will win pretty big.
The next eight months should be fascinating for us political junkies.
c.i. your point made several messages above is certainly appropriate. -rjb-
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 07:38 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
The campaign for the Democratic nomination will end tomorrow - Mr Kerry will win and and will win pretty big.
The next eight months should be fascinating for us political junkies.


Actually, I'm afraid it'll get pretty boring now for more than a few months. I mean, yeh, Edwards is gonna get trounced tomorrow, right. Then what? Half a year of foreplay before the real elections come on.

I really liked the Iowa / New Hampshire phase of the campaign. Lotsa intrigueing field reports from places you've never heard of, where entire communities turn out to be politicized. Major candidates who are forced to be chatting with the voters one-on-one, spend time on the porch with Uncle Joe at some mid-Iowan meatpackerfactory-town house party. It was democracy in action.

Now, already, we're way into the phase of hurried airport-runway visits and TV soundbites as candidates rush from main media market to main media market. Even the excitement of a close race has long gone. Whats left is corporate mass politics - and we've still got six or seven months of attack ads and bickering between two tired old faces to go before debates start up again and tension kicks in again. I'm tired already.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 08:08 pm
Nimh...you may be right about the next few months being boring...but I think you may be wrong:
1) Iraq will continue to be a quagmire
2) Bin-Laden will be killed or captured prior to Nov
3) Cheney will retire
4) Kerry will choose someone other than Edwards to be his running mate
and (5) and (6) etc...
This is going to be a fascinating time! -rjb-
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 08:21 pm
nimh wrote:
we've still got six or seven months of attack ads and bickering between two tired old faces to go before debates start up again and tension kicks in again. I'm tired already.


Yeah, I felt the same way after watching you and Craven go ten rounds in that other thread. :wink:
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 08:23 pm
PDid, Who won that match? LOL
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Brand X
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 08:26 pm
It fizzled like the Dem race.
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unknown man
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 09:27 pm
It is going t be a spactacular magicians show, as we wait and see what all the runners pull out of the hat.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 09:30 pm
I don't know about that; it seems Edwards is getting a little fiesty before tomorrow.
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unknown man
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 09:33 pm
We'll, I guess all thats left is to wait and see.

(I'm hoping for Kerry, as I would rather he win by a lot, gaining some momentum, then anyone else winning by a slim margine.)
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Mar, 2004 10:07 pm
I think the early polls confirms that Kerry is way ahead of everybody else; most people don't want to gamble this time around. Hoping Kerry brings back some sanity to this world.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 2 Mar, 2004 04:47 am
It was this thread. Nobody won, it just got stupid. Being taken to task about ever smaller details as one after the other of them got ticked off. Yeh, a lot like what the presidential race will be like, if we're unlucky.

I dont have no old face, tho. <grins>
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