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2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

 
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Feb, 2004 09:24 pm
The focus of the Milwaukee debate seemed to me to be on Mr Bush. Kerry, Dean and Edwards kept coming back to the, in their opinions, failures of the Bush administration. I didn't hear much from any of them as to how he might be different.
I was impressed with (the "short guy from Ohio" which is near Indiana), Kucinich's comments re Iraq. And Sharpton's thoughts about school vouchers and voting rights for DC residents made sense.
Kerry successfully dodged a question about the gay union issue in his home state of MA. The others weren't asked. I may be wrong, but I suspect that this will become a pivotal issue in the Nov election.
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Feb, 2004 10:33 pm
I'm with you on the thought that the Gay Union Issue will be key in November; its as well defined a wedge issue as can be imagined. And I'm in agreement with The Revrund Al on DC Voting Rights and pretty close to him on School Vouchers. The short guy does nothing for me ... sorry, I just cannot take him seriously at all ... sorta reminds me of a Chiuahua barking angrily at a Rottweiler, or maybe a pre-adolescent trying to make it in the NFL. Spunk is fine, but ya gotta have somethin' to back it up if you're gonna make it work. Dennis is about as well-defined a footnote-to-be as I can imagine.
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Dartagnan
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Feb, 2004 11:04 pm
Gay marriage will be a significant issue in the fall election if the Republican powers-that-be have anything to say about it. Which, of course, they will. If it seems to them that the election will be close, look for Bush to make the issue seem like the most important decision facing the nation in the near future. Especially if the situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate!
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 15 Feb, 2004 11:29 pm
I'm afraid you guys are right...gay marriage will be a big election issue. And that's more than a pity, for it is not merely a distraction from issues of much greater consequence, but it is purposefully divisive.

And the problem with framing this issue in the manner it will be framed - black vs white - is that it encourages the stupidification of the electorate.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2004 04:05 am
blatham wrote:
fishin' wrote:
Of course there was also the Gore team's assertions that Nader was an Anti-semite [..]

The Gore/Nadar incident is not known by me, and I couldn't find anything on it.


blatham wrote:
fishin' wrote:
Since you aren't famaliar with the Nader issue you can catch up with an overview here: http://www.antiwar.com/justin/j103000.html

I gather the Gore statement(s) occured in a linked TNR article, but having no membership and having spent my last dollar on a lovely Valentines Day gift from SextoysRus, I have not been able to see what Al might have said


Yeh, I "have membership" (of TNR - not, alas, of Sextoys'R'Us), so I can see it. Nothing all too spectacular.

First off, main thing - Al didnt say anything - not that this article shows, anyway. And as far as I know, TNR wasn't part of "the Gore team", either. (In fact, in the very same issue, a TNR commentator called his candidacy "simply too liberal for the country".)

That means that in terms of how Fishin' was using it - as an example of how the Dem campaigns used tricks that were just as dirty - this link doesnt show zilch.

Also, what TNR was accusing Nader of was pandering, not anti-semitism as such. And Lord knows (point #3 to make here) that TNR would be among the first to accuse anyone of anti-semitism. (I mean, I really do like TNR, but as soon as the topic turns to Israel, it tends to veer to near-hysteria).

Anyway, this was the dirt: after three paragraphs focusing its fire on Nader's "Republicrats" rhetorics, an Oct 2000 TNR editorial then lambasted Nader for blaming Israel for Middle-Eastern violence. And to go with that, it dug up an article he had written in 1960, for a journal that at the same time also published anti-semitic material - and called it "perhaps" a "youthful mistake".

Ergo, somebody at TNR, annoyed by a politician criticizing Israel, went searching through the archives to see what he could find on the guy on the matter - and found something that wasnt enough to accuse him of anti-semitism for, but was enough to wield a suggestive question mark about. All fairly typically TNR (both the diligent research and the outrage over an anti-Israel position) - but what its got to do with the Gore campaign, I dunno.

Quote:
[..] One of the strange things about Nader's notion that he is qualified for the presidency is that he is a man without any discernible views on foreign policy. Or he was until last week, when he proclaimed that Israel is entirely responsible for the recent violence in the Middle East and that Gore is "cowardly" for not saying so. Now that the Arab-American vote matters tactically, Nader has discovered the rest of the globe, and has decided to play the lousy game of identity politics that he used to scorn. "The curious thing of course is that though of Lebanese parentage, Nader has never made himself part of any Arab or Arab-American campaign ... [and] he does not devote much time to foreign policy." Those are the astute words of Edward Said, writing (in praise of the dissident, naturally) in Al-Ahram Weekly in Cairo a few months ago.

There is something even more curious than Nader's sudden pandering. (Excuse us, his sudden hunger for Levantine peace.) It turns out that Nader's cheapness on this question, and his conspiratorial view of the world, go back very far. They go back to March 1960, when the left's gaunt hero published an article called "Business Is Deserting America," in which he warned ominously of "our ingrained gullibility to internationalism." The remarkable thing is that Nader published his piece in The American Mercury, an obscenely anti-Semitic magazine. Nader's piece appeared in the same months that the magazine was publishing a series called "Termites of the Cross," which was full of such teachings as:

As soon as anyone demonstrates that he is willing to expose the enemies of communism or world Zionism, their vast machines start working to advance his interests. The Disciples of Judas do not even have to be openly pro-Communist or pro-Zionist to qualify for the big payoff....

The youthful mistake of the saint? Perhaps; but neither Gore nor Bush ever made quite such a mistake. In this respect, there is truly no difference between them.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2004 05:57 am
nimh

Thank you kindly. Your spanking-new gift membership to the other place is enroute via mail.

yoohoo...fishin....hallooooooooo

I don't think the case can be made that there is an equality in the degree of vileness here. I really know of no instances from the dems to match the things Rove (et al) have perpetrated. And such makes the nation a worse place. Recall, if you will, Suskind's piece in Esquire on DiIulio, and in that piece, Suskind's account of what he heard Rove yelling, "We will f*ck him. Do you hear me? We will F*CK him. We will ruin him. Like no one has ever been f*cked."
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2004 07:02 pm
Poll sighting:

Latest CBS/NYT poll (Feb 12-15) has Bush's approval/disapproval ratio up a little again - from 50/45 last month to 50/42 now.

It divides up as follows:
Republicans - Approve 89% Disapprove 9%
Democrats - Approve 21% Disapprove 71%
Independents - Approve 46% Disapprove 43%

But, interestingly, pitted against a generic Democrat, he's slid further down this month, regardless ... and against Kerry, he does no better:

Bush 42% (-1)
Democrat 47% (+2)

Bush 43%
Kerry 48%
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2004 07:06 pm
From nimh's post, "Bush 43%, Kerry 48%" What I'm looking for is Bush 35%, Kerry 55%. I guess there's a big difference between what we think might happen, and we wish will happen.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2004 07:50 pm
Good evening...I hope y'all have had a fine day.
One last comment re the "gay union issue."
I agree with you, blatham, that it is "a distraction from issues of much greater consequence..."
I disagree with you, D'artagnan, that this is an issue that the Repubs may trot out to win some more conservative votes for Bush. He probably has those votes already. But...
One of my employees is male, 25, straight, has green hair, & is the lead singer in a Goth-band which is incredibly popular. He is also a staunch Republican. He was in our warehouse the other day and had the radio tuned in to one of the daily
"talk" shows. I happened to walk in. Andy went into a rant about something he had heard on this subject: "I'm so tired of hearing this sh#t. Who cares?! Let people alone"
I said, "Andy, you're sounding like a Democrat, or maybe a Libertarian."
Admittedly, this was a focus group of one person. But I think the Bush people should be wary. They already have Ashcroft and the Patriot Act. This gay union issue may drive moderate Repubs out of the camp.
Enough, back to our regularly scheduled debate about who is more vile and who slinged (slang?) mud first.
BTW, the WI primary is tomorrow. Dean out? (Yes, definitely); Edwards out (50/50) Imho. -rjb-
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hobitbob
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2004 07:56 pm
Conservagoth!!! Shocked Make him turn in his hair dye and his pallor RIGHT NOW!!!!! Shocked
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Mon 16 Feb, 2004 08:02 pm
I doubt Edwards will quit, particularly if he shows respectably against Dean. With Dean's senior staff deserting him, any hopes he had now all but certainly are gone. My call for the top three tommorow:

Kerry:
48%

Edwards:
15%

Dean:
http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0awAAAJAfAYKnc*zngc7vVqznm9Q1UOW!k3JXjKIONKXKe9VpqdEjVFHHmdvSnvmW5ZYu*hMvxocjSed1mRnBmNVHbNHR!zWk87tLmykKjpfyIazYce6TocSbTTPMLXoMS1K9*DRNViAF2gv5iDu1CxTqZogO2UUP/!cid_10dc01c3d7c0$33101310$ca0e1e41@computer.gif?dc=4675458060804910216
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2004 02:31 pm
Kerry 49, Dean 24, Edwards 20, Kucinich 2, Sharpton 1.

Turnout appears to be massive (bad news for timber again):

Quote:
Dane County voters turned out in huge numbers today to help decide who will be the Democratic nominee for president.

With preliminary numbers from the city of Madison at 11 a.m., County Clerk Joe Parisi predicted turnout in Madison could reach 50 percent of eligible voters, with similar results from the rest of the county.

"Compared to other spring primaries, it's huge," he said.


More quotes from voters also at the link...The Capital Times (Madison)
0 Replies
 
BillW
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2004 02:33 pm
It's beginning to look like the Democrats are united in a cause, he-he Exclamation

With the extremely high positive and negative %s (35-40% each), voter turnout is a must........
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2004 06:54 pm
Bill, where do you get your numbers ... <shakes head>

Are we predicting WI results now? Is it not too late already? Not having followed any tracking polls (were there any?) on WI, I'm betting on, say, Kerry 50% Edwards 27% Dean 12% Kucinich 4% Sharpton 1%

Meanwhile ...

Quote:
But if Republicans have concerns about Bush's strategy, Democrats worry about how well Kerry will match up against the president.

"I think the Republicans are ready to fit him into a box, and it's not just the box of Massachusetts liberal," said one Democratic strategist. "I think the box they're trying to fit him in is the Washington veteran politician who says one thing and does another. And they'll make Bush a guy making tough decisions who is plainspoken. That's the contrast they're trying to draw. I have concerns."

Mehlman made clear that is precisely what the GOP will try to do. "There is a big stylistic difference going forward," he said, "between a president who is a straight shooter, who when he says something you can put it in the bank, and an opponent who has consistently shown through this campaign that he says one thing and does something else."

"If you looked at all his ads, you'd think he was an outsider," a Bush strategist said of Kerry. "This guy rails against special interests and look at what he's done over the last 20 years. He says he's going to come and fix Washington and he's been part of the problem for the last 20 years. We're going to make Kerry be who he is."

Other Democrats said they questioned whether Kerry will be able to generate real passion in voters, particularly those who are weakly tied to either party. [..]

"[..] that's what I think is the danger here. . . . I think he's a heavier lift than others. It's dependent on huge anti-Bush sentiment and whether that gets sustained over the next how many months."


link
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2004 07:42 pm
Quote:
Democrats grab House seat

Former Kentucky Attorney General Chandler wins special election


Relevant re: the general elections because:

Quote:
Chandler, scion of one of Kentucky's most prominent political families, defeated Republican Alice Forgy Kerr. [..] Kerr, a state senator from Lexington, based her campaign in large part on her support of President Bush, who had a 63 percent approval rating in a recent poll taken by The Courier-Journal of Louisville.

Bush made a commercial for Kerr's campaign and House Speaker Dennis Hastert stumped for her. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., gave her $10,000 and loaned top aides to run her campaign.
0 Replies
 
PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2004 08:25 pm
Yes, that House race is significant for a number of reasons, nimh.

Republicans made a point of crowing about Chandler's loss to Ernie Fletcher, who vacated the KY-6 slot to run for governor against Chandler.

Then Chandler turns around and whips Bush's lickspittle, Alice Kerr, for Fletcher's seat.

Mitch McConnell, the 800-lb. gorilla of Kentucky politics, gave her big money and staffers to help her campaign. She ran as a Republican who would support the President right down the line. As you note, both Bush and Speaker Hastert made campaign appearances for her.

She never had a chance.

That's a referendum on Bush, in a dominantly Republican state, and Bush lost. Cool

Wisconsin looks tight. Only FOX Rolling Eyes dares to put up any numbers yet: Kerry 39, Edwards 34, Dean 18.

Things may stay interesting for awhile...
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2004 08:28 pm
Yaaay ... looks good, from my perspective - both KY and WI ;-)
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2004 08:30 pm
PDid's quote, "That's a referendum on Bush, in a dominantly Republican state, and Bush lost."

I want to celebrate this news. Wink
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2004 09:24 pm
This morning:

Quote:
If it's Tuesday ...

By John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit
Tuesday, February 17, 2004 Posted: 1400 GMT

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- If it's Tuesday, it must be another big win for John Kerry, who's poised to cruise to victory in Wisconsin tonight.


Now:

Quote:
Early returns: Kerry, Edwards in tight Wis. race
Senators neck and neck; Dean is distant third

MSNBC staff and news service reports
Updated: 9:35 p.m. ET Feb. 17, 2004

MILWAUKEE, Wis. - In early returns in Wisconsin's Democratic presidential primary Tuesday evening, Sen. John Edwards was holding a slight lead over Sen. John Kerry, but the race was too close to call.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 17 Feb, 2004 09:33 pm
HERE'sthe WI Exit polls - a veritable treasure trove of poll-info ...

For example:

Quote:
Category %

No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:

Democrat Dean 16 Edwards 32 Kerry 47
Independent Dean 19 Edwards 41 Kerry 27
Republican Dean 23 Edwards 45 Kerry 18

On most political matters, do you consider yourself:

Liberal (43% of sample) Dean 21 Edwards 31 Kerry 40 Kucinich 6
Moderate (42% of sample) Dean 12 Edwards 40 Kerry 40
Conservative (15% of sample) Dean 22 Edwards 37 Kerry 29

(Note not just how Edwards is at least on a par with Kerry among Independents and Moderates - but also how some conservatives/Republicans have been trying to keep Dean in the race ..)

When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential primary?

Last week Dean 17 Edwards 46 Kerry 30
Before that Dean 19 Edwards 21 Kerry 51

(Another last-minute swing to Edwards ...)

Which comes closest to your feelings about the Bush administration:

Angry (43% of total) Dean 19 Edwards 30 Kerry 43
Dissatisfied, but not angry (38% of total) Dean 13 Edwards 38 Kerry 43
Satisfied, but not enthusiastic (13% of total) Dean 19 Edwards 51 Kerry 23
Enthusiastic (5% of total) Dean 30 Edwards 33 Kerry 10

(Again, a few Bush supporters have entered the fray to boost Dean ... meanwhile, among the likely 'swing' voters - who might still return to Bush if the Dems play it badly - Edwards does better than Kerry.)

Which ONE issue mattered most in deciding how you voted today?

Health care/Medicare (18% of total) Dean 21 Edwards 30 Kerry 43
War in Iraq (17% of total) Dean 20 Edwards 23 Kerry 44
Economy/Jobs (42% of total) Dean 13 Edwards 47 Kerry 34

(What do you think will be the main issue these elections? Who does better on it, Kerry or Edwards?)

White male Dean 19 Edwards 37 Kerry 34 Sharpton 1
White female Dean 16 Edwards 39 Kerry 39 Sharpton 0
Nonwhite male Dean 13 Edwards 22 Kerry 45 Sharpton 16
Nonwhite female Dean 22 Edwards 15 Kerry 56 Sharpton 2

18-29 Dean 28 Edwards 26 Kerry 35
30-44 Dean 20 Edwards 33 Kerry 37
45-64 Dean 16 Edwards 38 Kerry 39
65+ Dean 13 Edwards 38 Kerry 42

White Dean 17 Edwards 38 Kerry 37
Black Dean 15 Edwards 15 Kerry 54 Sharpton 12
Latino Dean 19 Edwards 25 Kerry 47

City (more than 50,000) Dean 19 Edwards 32 Kerry 39
Suburbs Dean 18 Edwards 41 Kerry 34
Rural, town and small city Dean 15 Edwards 34 Kerry 44

Have you or has anyone in your household ever served in the U.S. military?

Yes Dean 15 Edwards 36 Kerry 40
No Dean 20 Edwards 35 Kerry 37

Did you vote for your candidate today more because you think:

Defeat Bush in November Dean 9 Edwards 28 Kerry 59
Agrees on issues Dean 21 Edwards 40 Kerry 28

Which ONE candidate quality mattered most in deciding how you voted today?

Cares about me Dean 16 Edwards 49 Kerry 29
Stands up for what he believes Dean 31 Edwards 28 Kerry 23
Positive message Dean 11 Edwards 59 Kerry 26
Can defeat Bush Dean 8 Edwards 21 Kerry 69


Many of these findings echo those of the earlier states (Missouri, Oklahoma, SC). They greatly strengthen my impression that Kerry is in fact the less electable candidate, in comparison (with Edwards, that is).

Why? I observe that Kerry's support to a large extent depends on those who vote for him because they think he is the most electable / will win against Bush -- BUT, that if you look at the swing voter groups, the groups upon whom a Dem victory would ultimately depend - he's the one who does worse.

Ergo, his string of primary victories have given Kerry an aura of winnerdom - which leads many fervent / angry Dems to vote for him because they think he'll win in the General Elections, too. But this has become kind of a self-perpatuating myth, this way. Self-perpetuating because every new victory ensures the kind of coverage that makes people think he'll win, which makes 'em vote for him, which makes him win some more. But a myth because winning primaries is not the same thing as winning the general elections, and among exactly the groups Kerry would need in order to win those, too, he does relatively (very) weakly.

<nods>
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