PDiddie wrote:
Turnout appears to be massive (bad news for timber again):
Well, lets see here ... what the turnout really was, statewide, not in just a metro area.
Quote:WI Primary Votr Totals, By Candidate
Democrat
John Kerry 326,299
40%
John Edwards 282,581
34%
Howard Dean 150,180
18%
Dennis Kucinich 27,139
3%
Al Sharpton 14,434
2%
Wesley Clark 12,616
2%
Joe Lieberman 3,896
0%
Lyndon LaRouche Jr. 1,622
0%
Carol Moseley Braun 1,618
0%
Dick Gephardt 1,263
0%
Precincts Reporting: 99%
Libertarian
Michael Badnarik 1,486 44%
Gary Nolan 1,484
44%
Uninstructed 391
10%
Precincts Reporting 79%
Republican
George W. Bush 157,777 99%
Uninstructed 1,195
1%
Precincts Reporting 98%
Looks like 820,385 Democratic votes to me ... Even if you add in the 162,333 voters who declared in the Republican and the Libertarian Primaries, it comes up 982,718, for an overall turnout of a bit more than 24% of the estimated voting age population, well under the 40 and 50% breathless guesses by some excited pundits yesterday, and comparable to the 22% and 24.6% recorded for 2000 and 1996, respectively, when Wisconsin's April primary date was
thought to be the reason for declining participation, as observed by Kevin Kennedy, Elections Board Executive Director, who had predicted the earlier date and the general excitement and energy of the Democratric contest would bring folks swarming to the polls in record numbers:
Quote: Wisconsin's top election official said voter turnout in Wisconsin's new, earlier presidential primary could hit 40 percent, the highest for a presidential primary in the state in more than 20 years.
Elections Board Executive Director Kevin Kennedy said he expects about 1.6 million people to go to the polls Tuesday, driven by the national spotlight on the race for the Democratic presidential nomination and a host of thorny local issues, including a casino referendum in Dane County and a mayoral primary in Milwaukee.
"What drives voter turnout is when voters feel like their vote makes a difference," Kennedy said.
The last presidential primary in Wisconsin with a higher turnout was in 1980, when 46 percent of voters went to the polls, Kennedy said. On the ballot that year: Republican Ronald Reagan and Democrats Edward Kennedy and Jimmy Carter.
Wisconsin's old April primary discouraged voters for years, Kevin Kennedy said. Nomination races were wrapped up long before Wisconsin voters got to the polls. Statewide turnout in 2000 was 22 percent; turnout in 1996 was 24.6 percent, he said.
Not exactly an "astounding turnout", in fact not even average, if you look at the figures available at the
Wisconsin Board of Elections. Another interesting observation, Edwards seems to have been the beneficiary of a
large Republican crossover vote:
Quote: ... an unusually heavy Republican turnout and a late surge in support from independents helped Edwards to a second-place finish behind John Kerry.
In an open contest on a day with a non-partisan primary for mayor in Milwaukee and a referendum on casino gambling in Madison, one in ten Democratic primary voters described themselves as Republicans. Edwards won as many of their votes as did Kerry and Howard Dean combined. The Republican turnout was the biggest of any Democratic primary so far this year ...
There no doubt were some disaffected Republicans in that 10%, and there were some who crossed over just to cross up the opposition. How many of each ... well, no way to be certain, really. It is an open primary, after all, and there was really only one race to play. I know I was gonna go with Sharpton, just for giggles, but at the last minute, I figured I'd do what I could to keep Edwards on Kerry's tail. I imagine I wasn't alone in that thought.
Anywho ... Kerry notches another, but not exactly a blowout, Edwards gets legs, Dean pretty much gets told to take a hike, and the undercard remains on the bill, more or less just for the experience of being knee-deep in the hoopla a while longer. Still, if Kerry continues to just edge Edwards in the next few primaries, he'll have the delegates he needs to carry the nomination on the first ballot in Baltimore. Can Edwards pull a Seabiscuit? Will Edwards "Nice Guy" schtick hold up to Kerry's dedicated focus? I doubt it. But then, I've been wrong before. Still, if what appears to be nationwide below-par turnouts for the Democratic Primaries continues to be the case, that just might indicate a trend
I'd like :wink:
