2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

nimh wrote:

Well, Hillary got 17 votes thus far ... and Gephardt 230.
link

hahahaha Gephardt beat Sharpton!

About the money... everybody but Dean and Kerry are bound by per-state spending limits because they are accepting matching funds. Kerry's strategy has always been to outspend the spending limit in Iowa and NH and use the Johnmentum of those wins to allow him to spend less in other states.

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Well, NH is over with and the game changes slightly from here on out. In Iowa and NH they could afford to go from town to town and meet and greet with all the social groups (Elks, Lodge, PTA, etc..) and eat at the local diner with the locals all over the state. That isn't possible to do in 7 states all at the same time so things should shift to the mass media a little bit more. More 30 second sound-bites. Yippee! (ugh!)

I heard 2 new ads run today. One from Dean and one from Edwards.

I'm not sure who thought up Dean's ad but it just may backfire on him. In it he lamented the "attacks" on him in ads by Bush. ???? Huh??? Is Bush even running ads yet? The only ads I've seen or heard of that went after Dean were ads from the other Democrats running. Is he trying to say that they're all shills for Bush?

Edward's ad was equeally confusing. In it he laments that we throw people in prison for stealing a loaf of bread but corporate CEOs like those that killed Enron get away with nothing. Does anyone know of anyone that's ever gone to prison for stealing a loaf of bread? Didn't Fastow (Former Enron CFO) just agree to a plea deal to serve 10 years? Didn't Sam Waskal plead guilty and isn't he still awaiting sentencing? Isn't Ken Lay under inditement? Maybe he missed the news about Martha Stewart being on trial? Or did Edwards forget about that whole trial by jury/being found guilty thing?

Anyway, Dean's ad seems to be all "Bush is being mean to me" and Edwards is apparently pushing "legal/justice reform" at this point. It'll be interesting to see ghow these play out.

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Looks like Dean's new campaign manager is making a major shift in plans. Anyone want to pass a guess as to what the new strategy is here?

Quote:

Dean Skips Airing Ads in 7 Primary States
By NEDRA PICKLER
Associated Press Writer
Originally published January 29, 2004, 10:19 AM EST

BURLINGTON, Vt. -- Howard Dean will not air ads in any of the seven states holding elections next week, officials said Thursday, a risky strategy that puts him at a distinct disadvantage with high-spending rivals for the Democratic nomination.

With his money and momentum depleted, Dean decided to save his ad money for the Feb. 7 elections in Michigan and Washington state and, 10 days later, the primary in Wisconsin, said officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Dean runs the risk of falling off the political map with seven defeats Tuesday, the officials acknowledged. Dean is gambling that he can pick up delegates with second- and third-place finishes while rivals John Edwards and Wesley Clark spend themselves out of the race.

Officials hope that Dean emerges later in February as an alternative to front-runner John Kerry and engages in "guerrilla warfare" until he wins the nomination or is mathematically eliminated.

The full story has quite a bit more.
http://www.sunspot.net/news/nationworld/ats-ap_politics11jan29,0,2212510.story?coll=sns-ap-toppolitics

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The Dean people have been trying - without gaining much of a hearing - to downplay the importance of next week's races, emphasizing that they are just one more step on a long road still to come, et cetera. Presumably they see good opportunities in MI, WA and WI, and dont see much chances next week. But whether that makes any sense politically, I dunno. I guess they think enough second places will keep them from being eliminated, and then come-back time comes. But I only see this leading to a continued fragmentation of the field, which will keep a clear contender against Kerry from appearing.

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So what did anybody think about tonight's debate?

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I didn't watch it live, I'm sorta surfin' through it off the PVR. Quick takes; Kerry looks strong, Edwards continues to disappoint, Clark and Dean seem ever more insubstantial. Sharpton is a little sharper than last time, but not up to his standard. Haven't really looked at content so far, just delivery. Poor Joe. He coulda been a contender ... And Dennis is still trying to convince us he's there.

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Didn't catch this one.

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Kerry won, as Dean had in past debates, because he's the front-runner and no one marked him.

I thought it was General Clark's best debate yet. (But I'm biased.) He was sharp, hit the bull's eye by correcting Tom Brokaw more than once...a very strong performance, especially compared to last week's.

Every time I look at Dr. Dean now, I'm thinking, you had $40 million in the bank and it's all gone? I cannot concentrate on anything he says...

Edwards wasn't at his best; Sharpton as usual got off a few good ones (I'm convinced that if he wasn't African-American he'd be pulling ten times higher than 1%) and Joe-mentum repeated some of the same tired lines that haven't resonated in the past. He's going to be the butt of late-night comedy unless he concedes soon. I would hate to see him become a self-parody. He's a decent man and an effective Senator...

Of course, he still thinks he's in a logjam for third in New Hampshire. Rolling Eyes

I'm not finding any current state-by-state polling for the upcoming Super Tuesday primaries. (I suppose I could pay $100 at pollingreport.com, but I was waiting to see if nimh was going to do so... :wink:)

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Ah...spoke too soon. Here's something recent from Missouri:

SurveyUSA 1/29. MoE 3.5% (1/12 results):
Kerry 41 (6)
Edwards 17 (5)
Dean 17 (19)
Clark 8 (15)

SUSA says:

Quote:

Clark & Edwards run strong in the Ozarks, Dean in KC, Kerry in central and eastern MO. Kerry support skews old, Dean's support skews young, middle-aged voters are divided. Core Democrats back Kerry; Edwards disproportionately strong among MO independents.

So we know Dean isn't going to spend any money to change his standings. Will Edwards? Not likely to be much if so; his eggs are mostly in South Carolina's basket. That leaves the General, but given his receding standing, his money is probably better spent in OK, AZ, and NM.

Looks like it could be another convincing win for Kerry...

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I think Kerry now has the back wind, and will continue on to win most of the primaries from here on end. I also think he has a very good chance against Bush - better than Dean.

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PDiddie wrote:

I'm not finding any current state-by-state polling for the upcoming Super Tuesday primaries. (I suppose I could pay $100 at pollingreport.com, but I was waiting to see if nimh was going to do so... :wink:)

HAH! Not ... Razz

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What are "the Ozarks"?

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Clark's really reaching now, he has referred to that Canadian think tank gaff twice in the past week as if it now is legit info from the Pentagon. He still ahs the Perot syndrome.

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Quote:

Clark & Edwards run strong in the Ozarks, Dean in KC, Kerry in central and eastern MO. Kerry support skews old, Dean's support skews young, middle-aged voters are divided. Core Democrats back Kerry; Edwards disproportionately strong among MO independents.

Emphasis mine.

Nimh : The Ozarks are the oldest mountain range in the USA. Running south from the eastern half of Missouri down into Arkansas and parts of eastern Oklahoma. Read the above to mean "the rural areas of the Southern part of the state" or "the sticks" Laughing

Joe

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PDiddie wrote:

Every time I look at Dr. Dean now, I'm thinking, you had $40 million in the bank and it's all gone? I cannot concentrate on anything he says...

I'm still taken aback by this. Where did all of Dean's money go??? Were all of the Deanie "volunteers" on the payroll or something? I'd have thought $40 million should have easily carried him all the way to the convention.

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Fishin
Fishin, I've heard that most of the money went for staff in all of the states. Looks like they found a good gig. His campaign manager was a genius at setting up an organization on the ground and on the Internet, but he wasn't good at campaign strategy. Dean will never reach many of the states in which he invested in staffing organization. I think it is too late for a change in campaign managers to save his campaign. Dean is about to learn that there is a big difference between a movement and a campaign.

BBB

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All of these from ARG:

Missouri, MoE+/- 4, 1/30:

Kerry 46
Edwards 15
Dean 7
Clark 6
Uncommitted 6
Undecided 15

Delaware, same parameters:

Kerry 27
Lieberman 16
Dean 14
Edwards 9
Clark 8
Undecided 24

Oklahoma, 1/25:

Clark 23
Edwards 18
Kerry 17
Lieberman 10
Dean 8
Undecided 22

Nothing fresh for AZ, SC, NM, or ND that I can find for free...

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Clark and Edwards won't get the nod at the convention by winning only one state.

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Things can change quickly and unexpectedly as we have seen, c.i.

There's a thread in here somewhere that poses the question of Howard Dean's running mate. Howard Dean had $40 million less than 30 days ago. John Kerry was written off, polling 6% in Missouri for example.

Jumping to conclusions regarding this nomination process can be folly.

Kerry, though, most definitiely has momentum.

MSNBC/Zogby/Reuters for 1/30, MoE +/-4.1

Arizona:

Kerry 38%
Clark 17%
Dean 12%
Edwards 6%
Lieberman 6%
Undecided 18%

Missouri:

Kerry 45%
Edwards 11%
Dean 9%
Lieberman 4%
Clark 3%
Undecided 20%

Oklahoma:

Clark 27%
Kerry 19%
Edwards 17%
Dean 9%
Lieberman 5%
Undecided 23%

South Carolina:

Edwards 25%
Kerry 24%
Dean 9%
Clark 8%
Lieberman 5%
Sharpton 5%
Undecided 22%

Kerry within the MoE in SC is bad news for Edwards. Undecideds are still 20%, give or take, so the candidates have plenty of votes yet to collect.

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Re: Fishin

BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:

Fishin, I've heard that most of the money went for staff in all of the states. Looks like they found a good gig. His campaign manager was a genius at setting up an organization on the ground and on the Internet, but he wasn't good at campaign strategy. Dean will never reach many of the states in which he invested in staffing organization. I think it is too late for a change in campaign managers to save his campaign. Dean is about to learn that there is a big difference between a movement and a campaign.

BBB

BBB

I think that is an astute analysis.

It's a disappointment to me that Dean now seems likely to fall, and disappointing for some of the same reasons as when McCain failed. To see people, particularly young people as with Dean's campaign, active and purposeful about civics issues was heartening. Even more so when it happens somewhat outside the party machinery.

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2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

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