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2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

 
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Jan, 2004 08:41 pm
Now who's gonna step out? Lieberman, I should think (and hope), anyone else? Probably not, huh?

Dean hasnt got much rationale for a future win anymore, what, if he couldnt win either of these two ... but he's got money left to spend and scored just well enough to in principle go on still ...

... and in a way that should make Kerry happy.

It should because Dean is not likely gonna win the primaries, anyway, there's too much resistance to him - and as long as he is in there, he distracts attention away from the other contenders. Whereas without him, Edwards or Clark could become the "not-Kerry" candidate, and they would actually have a credible chance of success.

Great ... :-(
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Jan, 2004 08:45 pm
Well, Hillary got 17 votes thus far ... and Gephardt 230.
link
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dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Jan, 2004 08:46 pm
and here I sit having just sent in more $ to Kucinich, I ain't the brightest bulb on the tree. Now if I only agreed with more of his platform I would be contented to lose knowing I fought the good fight. Ah well, politics is a blood sport at best.
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fishin
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Jan, 2004 09:26 pm
nimh wrote:
Now who's gonna step out? Lieberman, I should think (and hope), anyone else? Probably not, huh?

Dean hasnt got much rationale for a future win anymore, what, if he couldnt win either of these two ... but he's got money left to spend and scored just well enough to in principle go on still ...


I wouldn't count Dean out quite yet. Kerry is liable to face an uphill battle down south. The south (going on past history) should be feeding ground for Clark and Edwards. If either of them takes a few states from Kerry and if Dean continues to pull in 2nd or 3rd place showings he could ride this all the way to the Convention.

Lieberman is gonna run low on $$ in a hurry. I don't think he has enough left to do much in all the states that will be holding their primaries on Feb 3rd. Kerry, Dean, Clark and Edwards still have enough $$ to get through Feb 3rd at least. It'd be interesting to see where their war chests sit in the morning. Dean outspent Kerry 2 to 1 in NH. I'm not sure how long he can keep that level of spending up.
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Ethel2
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Jan, 2004 09:37 pm
oh boy, here's a new peice that should stimulate discussion.

http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0404/goldstein.php

Quote:
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Jan, 2004 09:39 pm
As of 10:40 pm EST, Clark has eased into third, but I think four tickets get punched coming out of the Granite State. Joe Lieberman has slipped under 9%. He ought to quit but he's going to slog on another week, at least.

Speaking of next week, let's look ahead to the states of Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, New Mexico and North Dakota (all these numbers courtesy Survey USA):

SC as of 1/27:

Edwards 32%
Clark 17%
Dean 16%
Kerry 13%
Sharpton 10%
Lieberman 5%
Kucinich 1%
Undecided 5%

Edwards' first win. Could be in convincing fashion. Note the Reverend Al's lead over Joementum. Shocked

AZ, as of 1/27:

Kerry 30%
Clark 24%
Dean 23%
Lieberman 10%
Edwards 7%
Other 3%
Undecided 2%

Could be the closest battle. Edwards missing his IA bounce.

OK, as of 1/23:

Clark 32%
Edwards 23%
Kerry 17%
Dean 10%
Lieberman 8%
Other 7%
Undecided 5%

Clark's first win.

MO and DE results still include Gephardt in two-week-old numbers; Lieberman is claiming Delaware as a breakthrough in the win column and Missouri awaits its favorite son's endorsement. I don't see him giving it to Howard Dean. NM is Clark Country; ND leans Kerry.

Note also the low percentage of undecideds compared to Iowa and Hew Hampshire.

Despite the duplicate exacta finish in IA and NH, this is a four-horse race to the South and West.

It's reallly going to be interesting next Tuesday. :wink:
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dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Jan, 2004 09:41 pm
"
Quote:
No one ever lost macho points for being stupid
" Laughing
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Jan, 2004 09:46 pm
The candidates will be out of NH by midnight...moving on to Feb 3rd.
Nimh, I sincerely admire your knowledge of and interest in our politics.
A couple of comments: I don't know why Lieberman is still in. Clark doesn't look viable.
Dean gave a much better speech in NH than he did in IOWA after the polls closed. Edwards looks vulnerable.
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Ethel2
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Jan, 2004 09:50 pm
I agree Dys...............funniest line in a while in this election.
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Jan, 2004 10:09 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
Clark doesn't look viable.


Look again.

He stands an excellent chance of winning two states next week, both of them with more delegates than IA or NH. Perhaps two second place finishes as well.

realjohnboy wrote:
Edwards looks vulnerable.


He amazed in Iowa and didn't necessarily disappoint anyone tonight. Next week he will likely score a convincing win. His trajectory is nothing but up; wayyy up.

One of the two -- Clark or Edwards -- is going to be on the ticket somewhere. Count on it.
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Jan, 2004 10:27 pm
The best story of the night?

From the Republican primary results:

Bush 50,866
Kerry 1349
Dean 910
Clark 805
Edwards 762

That's over 3,800 registered Republicans who wrote in a Democrat in their ballot.

That's got to scare the **** out of Rove. Cool
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Ethel2
 
  1  
Reply Tue 27 Jan, 2004 10:38 pm
that's funny PD
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Jan, 2004 05:27 pm
Joe Trippi is out, suddenly, as Dean's campaign manager:

Quote:
Howard Dean shook up his faltering bid for the White House on Wednesday, replacing his campaign manager with a longtime associate of former Vice President Al Gore.

In a further sign of distress, the one-time front-runner implemented cost-cutting measures as he looked ahead to a series of costly primaries and caucuses, asking staff to defer their paychecks for two weeks.

"Governor Dean asked Roy Neel to join the campaign as CEO and Joe Trippi resigned as campaign manager," said Tricia Enright, a campaign spokeswoman...

Trippi's departure sent shockwaves through the campaign, where he is a popular boss and something of an icon to the thousands of Internet-savvy supporters across the country. It is not unusual for crowd members to look for Trippi's autograph before Dean's at campaign events.

As word of the staff change circulated, the official blog on Dean's Web site lit up with mixed reaction from campaign supporters. Several praised Trippi's skills that they said brought Dean's candidacy as far as it has, while others said it was past time for a shake-up.

"Let's all give our thanks to Joe Trippi as he took this campaign from obscurity to front runner status. Now is the elections and a different kind of campaign was needed," said a post from "rwilson4dean."

"Good, Trippi needed to be replaced," wrote "NJ for Dean." "Maybe HQ will start to listen to us!!!! Get better ads!"

Dean campaign officials said the move is a sign of Gore's growing influence in the campaign. He recommended that Neel play a larger role, officials said.

Trippi's critics in the campaign had complained to Dean about the massive TV ad expenditures in Iowa and New Hampshire, a share of which went to the media firm run by Trippi and Steve McMahon.

Neel, Gore's former senatorial chief of staff, served as chief executive of the U.S. Telecom Association in Washington before working on Gore's 2000 presidential campaign. Neel was named to head Gore's transition team in anticipation of the former vice president winning the White House.


Dean replaces campaign manager

This has more than the normal air of desperation about it.

Apparently Dean's sizable media expenditures in NH were running through a company Joe Trippi owned (and presumably got a percentage of).

And as much respect and admiration as I have for Al Gore, I don't think having his operatives take over is going to help much.

Dean needs a win in six days, and I don't see it happening.
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fishin
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Jan, 2004 05:41 pm
Shocked Wow. That's an unexpected move.
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Jan, 2004 05:51 pm
Sorta looks to me as though Gore is playing Mephistopheles to Dean's Faust. Can't recall a telling of that story that had a happy ending.
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Jan, 2004 06:03 pm
Another thought ... maybe wide of the mark, but I think this really illustrates a developing dynamic ... Dean/Gore vs the Kennedy/Kerry faction AND the Clinton/Clark faction in what is a potentially highly disruptive, likely extremely nasty internecine squabble within The Democratic Party itself. They could wind up mutually gutting one another, or there could emege a whole new, finally unified, cohesive Democratic Party Establishment. Somehow, I think the latter the less likely. This could get bloody.
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dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Jan, 2004 06:29 pm
as Nixon said "Politics is a blood sport"
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Jan, 2004 06:46 pm
Hi...For the record, PDiddie "wins" NH, getting #1 - #5 correct. Congrats. Much tougher predictions for next week.
I figured something was up when Dean went home
after NH, but I never appreciated that his campaign might be in trouble.
Anyway, it seems to me that Edwards and Clark are in a "must win" battle in SC. Kerry, meanwhile, is into MO, trying to lock up some big delegate votes.
The "problem" with Kerry is his "electability." Despite, or because of, his many years in the Senate, he can be attacked by Mr Bush on his voting record. Do the Dems need a fresh face?
-rjb: is this fun, or what?
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Jan, 2004 07:21 pm
Interesting take, Lola.

fishin' wrote:
Kerry, Dean, Clark and Edwards still have enough $$ to get through Feb 3rd at least. It'd be interesting to see where their war chests sit in the morning. Dean outspent Kerry 2 to 1 in NH. I'm not sure how long he can keep that level of spending up.


Well I did hear that Dean actually again pulled in more money than Kerry in the week up to the NH primaries - after his demasque, that is. The fundraising part of his campaign remains amazing.

We got to beat back/the corporate attack/we got to beat, beat back/that corporate attack! ... <grins> ...

(sorry, just having a bit of fun. I remember that line (a crowd-warmer) from a report on a Dean rally, and now I cant get it out of my head ... Evil or Very Mad )
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 28 Jan, 2004 07:29 pm
DAMN, I hadnt heard about Trippi yet ... big story. Shocked

Yeh, seems pretty desperate ...

PDiddie wrote:
The best story of the night?

[..] over 3,800 registered Republicans who wrote in a Democrat in their ballot.

That's got to scare the **** out of Rove. Cool


Eh, funny PD. But - Independents could vote in the NH Republican primaries, too, no - even ones that registered as such on the very day of the elections, did I get that right? So that could just have been a deliberate bit of Independent trolling ...
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