2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

WCVB Poll: Dean Tops In N.H.
Dean Maintains Strong Lead Over Rivals[/b]

POSTED: 5:52 PM EST December 16, 2003
UPDATED: 6:20 PM EST December 16, 2003

BOSTON -- According to an exclusive WCVB poll, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has a commanding lead over his Democratic rivals in New Hampshire.

NewsCenter 5's Janet Wu reported that Dean enjoys a 29 point lead over his closest competition, John Kerry. The poll was taken after last week's debate, and after the capture of Saddam Hussein.

"He is the only candidate that is dramatically moving. You would think, 'how can he continue to keep going up and up?' His message is still resonating with voters in this state," said University of New Hampshire Survey Center's Andrew Smith. "John Kerry's flat. He is at 17 percent, 16 percent. He has been flat for the last four or five months."

WCVB/NH Primary Poll
Poll Conducted Dec. 10 to Dec. 15
Candidate Percent

Dean 46 %

Kerry 17 %

Clark 10 %

Lieberman 7 %

Edwards 4 %

Gephardt 3 %

Kucinish, Mosley Braun, Sharton 3 %

Undecided 11 %

Margin Of Error Plus/Minus 4.6 %

Dean's supporters [..] don't reject "the overall course of American foreign policy" [..]; they're just furious with Bush's international ineptitude. In fact, Dean's willingness to use his foreign policy speech to continue his centrist tack proves that he knows where his bread is buttered. Whatever their personal feelings about the speech's individual planks, his core supporters will not abandon him, because they have already decided that he is the near-mythical embodiment of all their anti-Bush anger. What he does or says on a daily basis, or even at the policy level, seems beside the point. Or, as one Dean supporter wrote shortly after the speech, "Ours isn't an anti-war campaign. It is a get Bush out of office because of his terrible policies campaign."

Gore endorsed Dean partly to raise his middle finger to the Clintons [..] Clark will now press for Bill Clinton's endorsement as a counter, vowing to keep the party apparatus under Clinton control. (Bill Clinton has promised to support the eventual nominee, but he could endorse Clark now and then still support a different nominee later; it all depends of what the meaning of "support" is.)

a new ad - which the New York Times calls "the toughest commercial of the primary election season" -- from the Americans for Jobs, Health Care and Progressive Values, a Democratic group that has ties to Gephardt supporters. "The spot opens with a Time magazine cover featuring Osama bin Laden as synthesizer music seemingly out of a post-apocalyptic science fiction movie is heard."

"'Americans want a president who can face the dangers ahead,' an announcer intones. 'But Howard Dean has no military or foreign policy experience. And Howard Dean just cannot compete with George Bush on foreign policy. It's time for Democrats to think about that - and think about it now.'"

just in time for Dean's swing through Arizona today, embed Felix Schein notes a new poll in that state shows Dean leading at 22%, Clark at 12%, and Lieberman at 9%. Schein says, however, that the poll was conducted before Saddam's capture.

On Hardball, [..] Chris Matthews followed up on Lieberman's earlier attack on Dean, asking the Senator whether Saddam Hussein ever attacked America or made it unsafe. Lieberman responded, "This man to me was a ticking time bomb," he said. "I didn't want to look back, particularly this became my feeling after September 11, and say after Saddam did something horrible to the American people, like September 11, why didn't we stop him before he did that."

... to be reassessed by a political press corps that makes its living stampeding from one side of the boat to the other

Osama bin Laden and his allies have nothing to offer except deceit, destruction, and death. There is a global struggle underway between peace-loving Muslims and this radical minority that seeks to hijack Islam for selfish and violent aims, that exploits resentment to persuade that murder is martyrdom, and hatred is somehow God's will. The tragedy is that, by its actions, its unilateralism, and its ill-considered war in Iraq, this Administration has empowered radicals, weakened moderates, and made it easier for the terrorists to add to their ranks.

[..] The strategic map of the world has never been more complicated. What America does, and how America is perceived, will have a direct bearing on how successful we are in mobilizing the world against the dangers that threaten us, and in promoting the values that sustain us. [..]

The next President will have to [..] convince Muslims that America neither threatens nor is threatened by Islam, to which millions of our own citizens adhere.

And he must show by words and deeds that America seeks security for itself through strengthening the rule of law, not to dominate others by becoming a law unto itself.

... to be reassessed by a political press corps that makes its living stampeding from one side of the boat to the other

...how many instances, one wonders, has Saddam's picture (before the makeover) been broadcast or printed?

Following his endorsement this week by former Vice President Al Gore, almost a quarter (24%) of Democrats and Democratic leaners say they would like to see former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean nominated as the Democratic party's presidential candidate in 2004, a significant increase from 16 percent in the last Newsweek Poll of November 6- 7, 2003. Retired General Wesley Clark and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman tie for second place with 12 percent each; 10 percent favor Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, while the other Democratic hopefuls each received less than 10 percent. Meanwhile half (50%) of registered voters say they would not like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another term; 45 percent say they would.

Still, in a head-to-head matchup, if the general election were held now, Clark would have the best chance against Bush; 49 percent of registered voters would vote for or lean towards voting for Bush, while 43 percent would vote for or lean towards Clark.

On Dean's chances of winning the election, 31 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners say he's the Democrat most likely to defeat George Bush if he wins the nomination; 13 percent favor Clark.

Very, very roughly, you've got about a third of likely voters who consider themselves to be Democrats and another third who consider themselves to be Republicans. These people will vote with their party, right or wrong. The election is won or lost with the "independent" third.

Some people in this last third are genuinely independent thinkers. But mostly they are independent because they don't think and don't know a dadblamed thing about what is going on.

(In my experience, the more knowledgable a person is about politics and current events, the more likely it is he or she aligns himself with a party.)

These "independents" are reached only on a subconsious level. Because the Republicans are better at propaganda -- using imagery and buzzwords to make Bush look like a hero and any Democrat to look like a wimp -- the Republicans have an edge with the independent voters.

That's why policy ideas are not enough. You can talk about policy all day long with these people. Then the Republicans trot out and wave a flag and a Bible, and the Chickenhawk in Chief plants himself in front of an American flag and talks about "resolve," and the Pugs win.

And this, in a nutshell, is why Clark would be stronger in the general election than Dean or anybody else. Standing next to Clark, Bush is the wimp.

I disagree that the Indies are that stupid.
And Clark mortally wounded himself during the first week. Bush would gut Clark with his own words. Clark will not pass the National Security Test.

I disagree that the Indies are that stupid.

I disagree that Bush is a wimp next to Clark, who may have barked orders to his underlings in service, but he won't to Bush. I think Clark is kind of wimpish next to Dean.

Brand X wrote:

I disagree that Bush is a wimp next to Clark, who may have barked orders to his underlings in service, but he won't to Bush. I think Clark is kind of wimpish next to Dean.

Bush would soil himself onstage in a debate with Clark.

With Dean, and with Kerry, and with Gephardt, and with Kucinich, and with Sharpton... :wink: