2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

timberlandko wrote:

All I posit is that there has been a Republican tilt, and that Republican sentiment appears to have both depth and momentum.

A look at PollingReport.Com shows Bush may be gaining strength, or at the very least is not weakening, while the Democrats cannot draw the same comfort. [..]

Whatever The Nine are doing relative to one another, none of them is gaining on Bush.

Again it all depends on where you start counting and which poll you take.

In the CBS poll sans "Dont know yet" option, the generic Democrat is actually doing considerably better against Bush than three weeks ago; and no better or worse than six weeks ago.

The Gallup poll has bad news for the Democrats compared to two months ago; you cant compare it with longer ago cause it hasnt had three consecutive comparable polls yet.

In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, both the generic Democrat and Dean are doing ever so slightly worse than two months ago (one or two %) - but considerably better than four months ago.

In the Newsweek poll, both Dean, Clark, Kerry and Gephardt are actually doing better against Bush than in any preceding poll.

Those are all polls of the last 10 days.

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nimh, We just gotta hope this trend stays constant.

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now to find out what the trend is

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.....

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You are saying nimh, that the Democrats have the edge.

You are wrong.

The accession of three Republicans to governorships recently; the fact that four(4) Democratic Senators are not going to run and the fact that the Republicans got received FOUR MILLION MORE VOTES in the Nov. 2002 elections are far more important in measuring the sentiment of the American people vis a vis Democrats or Republicans in the Nov. 2004 elections.

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It, are you sure they weren't the September elections? Wink

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nimh wrote:

now to find out what the trend is

To hazard a guess, I'd say the trend is toward continuing ambiguous readings.

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Italgato wrote:

You are saying nimh, that the Democrats have the edge.

You are wrong.

When did I last say that?

Last time I replied to you, I quoted MSNBC as noting that, "In the 41 governors races since November 2001, there have been 25 switches in party control: 12 have switched from Republican to Democrat, while 11 have gone the other way. [..] Duffy says this proves one party isn’t really dominating [..]".

Last time I said anything about the subject, altogether, (right up here), I said: "now to find out what the trend is".

If you wanna know how I estimate the various contenders' chances, check out my new thread, If you were a bookie ....

So ... in short: stop using your language of derision and hubris to attack what you think people have said - when it bears no relation to what they actually said.

In fact, just stop using your language of derision and hubris, period.

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nimh wrote:

...
In fact, just stop using your language of derision and hubris, period.

THAT was good!

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There were no national elections in September.

The election took place in November, 2002.

You certainly should remember the election, Hobobit.

It was the election when the Communists in Minnesota were finally removed from the Senate.

It was the election when the wife of the dead man was sent to the nursing home in Missouri.

It was the election in which Max Cleland was finally given a break so he could rest.

It was the election in which Tom De Lay strenghtened his hold on the House.

You remember that election, don't you, Hobobit?

It was the election in which Newsweek magazine commented:

quote:

BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS, the GOP should have lost some 22 House seats and two Senate Seats.--the Post-world war II average loss by a president's party in the first midterm after his election, Instead, the GOP gained two seats in the Senate and five in the House.

The left wing pundits were stunned. They will be equally stunned in November 2004 when Dean is rejected by the American voters.

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Ittykitty wrote:

I am very much afraid that ----'s hope that the Administration be sent packing next September...

From:this post. I am merely doing my neighborly duty to keep you from embarrassing yourself (again.). Very Happy

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thanks, george ;-)

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nimh wrote:

thanks, george ;-)

Hell, he's probably a European.

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My language of Hubris?

I don't know hubris but I can speak a little Spanish?

Get off your soap box. You are the type who is filled with Hubris and derision.

No one dares to face the facts. I post the election results in November 2002. No one can comment.

I post the three governorships won by Republicans.

No one comments.

I post the four bail out Senators from the Democratic side.

No one comments.

If I write hubris and derision then nimh writes stupidity. It is obvious that he is quite unable to answer the points( see above) I have made.

My prescription:

Take two aspirin and hubris and derision with a glass of water before bedtime.

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Italgato wrote:

My language of Hubris?

I don't know hubris but I can speak a little Spanish?

Get off your soap box. You are the type who is filled with Hubris and derision.

Oh look, both hubris and derision in the same sentence! Smile

Quote:

No one dares to face the facts. I post the election results in November 2002. No one can comment.

Hey, look at me, everybody, look at me, I'm the smartest kid here, hey, look at me!

Quote:

I post the three governorships won by Republicans.

No one comments.

I said look at me, hey look at me..hey...hello!

Quote:

I post the four bail out Senators from the Democratic side.

No one comments.

C'mon guys, I wanna play too..guys...hey...look at me...look at how brilliant I am!

Quote:

If I write hubris and derision then nimh writes stupidity. It is obvious that he is quite unable to answer the points( see above) I have made.

I don't wanna play with you guys anyway! My mommy always told me not to feel bad that other kids didn't like me. They are just jelous! I'm special!

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georgeob1 wrote:

nimh wrote:
thanks, george ;-)

Hell, he's probably a European.

Ah ... you think the French have 'invented' Italgato, just to make American conservatives look bad?

Now that would explain some ....

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Prior to th '02 elections, polls showed not so much a srengthening of Republican sentiment as a diminution of Democrat fervor. No striking Republican gains were noted, but support for Dems was lukewarm when viewed with the hindsight we've accrued since then. That's what the pundits missed, IMHO, and the lack of Republican gain in polls led the punditocracy to postulate a Democrat resurgence. I recall an MSNBC poll, I think, which proclaimed, the day before the lection, "Democrats take lead, poised to regain control", or something like that. The commentary went on to say the Dems were "energized as never before". i've tried to find it, but apparently that bit of "MSNBC Campaign 2002" didn't make the archives.

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I don't give a damn who starts a flame war with whom over what. I'll shoot anyone dumb enough to play the game.

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Oooohh Timber, what a big gun you have! Wink

( Added by timber: a loud bang, a whirr, a solid "Thunk", a bit of dust, and the patter of debris falling to the floor follow timber's warning shot. "Its a big enough gun, partner" timber drawls, casually holstering his still-smoking piece.)

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2004 Elections: Democratic Party Contenders

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