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COUP IN KYIV?

 
 
Lordyaswas
 
  2  
Reply Tue 25 Mar, 2014 11:47 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Whoever he is, he's probably more effective than our William Hague, who talks through his adenoids and waltzes in as if Britain still rules half the globe.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Mar, 2014 12:08 pm
@Lordyaswas,
But your Hague is a lot better in jokes than our Steinmeier!
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Mar, 2014 12:36 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
A very interesting study Die Ukraine inmitten der Krise by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs - SWP (short one-sentence-summary, since the translation isn't online yet: the present government/presidency in Ukraine risks a civil war)
0 Replies
 
InfraBlue
 
  4  
Reply Tue 25 Mar, 2014 01:35 pm
Today on NPR there was a very good analysis of the situation in Crimea by Kimberly Marten, a political scientist at Barnard College.

She sees Crimea as a liability that, for the most part, was a drain on the Ukrainian government. What Russia has gained is nationalist pride and Putin is pandering to the Russian ethnic nationalists.

Quote:
Putin didn't get anything economically by taking over Crimea. Crimea has been very heavily subsidized by the Ukrainian government and is very dependent on the rest of Ukraine for its electricity supplies, for various other things that it requires, like water, to run its agricultural complex and its industries. It's not a wealthy country ... so he didn't actually get anything material by deciding to take over Crimea.

What he got was the ability to come home to his home population and say, "Look how strong I am. They're not going to be able to insult us any more like they have been doing since the end of the Cold War. Russia's military might is back. ... I have now brought back Russia into the limelight and I'm protecting the Russian population."


She also said that this arrogation was along the lines of a "war of distraction"--I'm paraphrasing here from what I remember of the broadcast--to distract from domestic issues that have eaten away at his power, like the deep, systemic corruption that was exposed by having hosted the Olympics.

The NPR site also links an article that Marten wrote for the Washington Post.
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 26 Mar, 2014 01:38 am
The transitional government in Kyiv faces major challenges. The West supports the new government while Russia calls it fascist and illegitimate. But who are the new ministers in the Ukraine government?

Far-right weighs on Ukraine government
0 Replies
 
Lordyaswas
 
  2  
Reply Wed 26 Mar, 2014 04:40 am
If anyone isn't too familiar with Putin's background, or how his mind works, here is a fascinating insight into his rise to power and of those within his secretive inner circle.

Written by John Kampfner, the Telegraph's Moscow bureau chief from 1991 to 1994 :-

Snippet......."Everything and everyone was there to be bought. By the new millennium, the new class of oligarchs and their friends in the Yeltsin “family”, as the elite was known, wanted a pliant leader to take over. By the end of 1999, they had alighted on a certain Vladimir Putin, a diminutive, former middle-ranking KGB agent in East Germany.They assumed he would do their bidding.
Yet, within a few months, he had turned the arrangement on its head. He summoned the men who had made billions out of oil and gas, aluminium and other natural resources, and gave them a message: you can make as much money as you like, as long as you don’t meddle in politics......"

Link : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/10716174/Who-is-in-Putins-inner-circle.html
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 26 Mar, 2014 06:03 am
@Lordyaswas,
I've met some people, who still remember "Wolodja" from his time in Germany. (And they say, he has been here before those years officially noted.)
And my brother-in-law had been at a "business dinner" in St. Petersburg, which Putin attended as mayor.
Putin has always been described as the one drinking less than anyone else.


One of the two pubs (now a guesthouse, the doesn't exist anymore) where Putin used to play chess with locals
http://i1334.photobucket.com/albums/w641/Walter_Hinteler/a_zpsa5fc2430.jpg
(Rotes Haus = red house)
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 26 Mar, 2014 07:05 am
Russia's annexation of Crimea has prompted non-aligned Sweden and Finland to weigh defense options such as beefing up partnership with NATO or formally joining the alliance. Analysts say it's up to Russia what's next.
Quote:
"The mere fact that you have discussions about Sweden and Finland joining NATO is a clear sign that - in the big scheme of things - Putin's behavior is backfiring," Charles Kupchan, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and a professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University, told DW. "Putin has scared all those countries around him by invading Crimea and annexing it."

And by scaring its neighbors, Russia is going to push Sweden and Finland toward NATO, according to Stefan Olsson, director of the Stockholm Free World Forum think tank.
Source
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Wed 26 Mar, 2014 01:29 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Even the dolphins of Crimea changed side

Crimean Military Dolphins to Serve in Russian Navy
Quote:
SEVASTOPOL, March 26 (RIA Novosti) - The combat dolphin program in the Crimean city of Sevastopol will be preserved and redirected towards the interests of the Russian Navy, an employee at the facility where the dolphins are trained told RIA Novosti.

The program, dating to the 1960s, was previously scheduled to be disbanded by the Ukrainian navy in April, but the facility and the dolphins themselves have now become Russian following the reunification of Crimea with Russia last week.

"The oceanarium's engineers are developing new instruments for new applications to boost the operational efficiency of the dolphins underwater," the employee said, requesting anonymity. The employee added the animals are currently outfitted with extremely outdated equipment.

The dolphins are trained to patrol open water and attack or attach buoys to items of military interest, such as mines on the sea floor or combat scuba divers trained to slip past enemy security perimeters, known as frogmen. Man-made sonar systems are often incapable of detecting such small objects in crowded environments such as harbors.

"Our experts have developed new devices, which convert the detection of objects by the dolphins' underwater sonar to a signal on an operator's monitor," the source said. "But the Ukrainian Navy lacked the funds for such know-how, and some projects had to be shuttered."

The source expressed hope the Russian navy would support the combat program, which also trains sea lions.

Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, the dolphin program was handed over to the Ukrainian navy, where it was initially reconverted for civilian uses, such as working with disabled children. The military arm of the facility was re-formed in 2011.

The facility is one of only two such combat dolphin training centers in the world, the other is run by the US Navy in San Diego.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 26 Mar, 2014 01:40 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
Even the dolphins of Crimea changed side
was reading that one of the main reasons the temp Ukrainian Defense Minister was fired was that apparently 2/3 of the Ukraine military stationed in Crimea have decided to switch sides.

EMBARRASSING!

The minister is blamed for not pulling the people out before they had a chance to switch.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 26 Mar, 2014 01:47 pm
Obama's whistling past the graveyard act the other day was sad, he justifying not changing his course on massive defense cuts by claiming to believe that russia is a " regional power acting out of weakness" in Ukraine.

The truth is that the Russian military has proven to be shockingly modern and capable, the Putin military transformation has been successful over the last 5 years, during which time no one in Washington has been paying any attention. Dont hold you breath waiting for Obama to wake up, he who has proven that he will stick to his ideological delusions no matter what facts come in.
panzade
 
  2  
Reply Wed 26 Mar, 2014 01:59 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
he justifying not changing his course on massive defense cuts by claiming to believe that russia is a " regional power acting out of weakness in Ukraine".

Let's raise our defense spending because Russia invaded Crimea shall we?

Quote:
The truth is that the Russian military has proven to be shockingly modern and capable

Let's ask the mujahedin in Afghanistan and see what they say.
Quote:
the Putin military transformation has been successful over the last 5 years

That's news to me.
Quote:
during which time no one in Washington has been paying any attention.

Uhmmmm...we were busy with a couple of wars , an Iranian threat and an Arab Spring.
Quote:
Dont hold you breath waiting for Obama to wake up, he who has proven that he will stick to his ideological delusions no matter what facts come in.


I see some opinions, but not a lot of facts.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  3  
Reply Wed 26 Mar, 2014 02:04 pm
@hawkeye10,
How many of those Ukrainian soldiers were Russian speaking with family inside Crimea? What Putin banked on was that most of them would defect to Russia without complaint. Instead we've had weeks of standoffs and a large number of Russian speaking Ukrainian soldiers staying Ukrainian despite all the pressure to do otherwise.
Foofie
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 26 Mar, 2014 07:51 pm
@izzythepush,
izzythepush wrote:

How many of those Ukrainian soldiers were Russian speaking with family inside Crimea? What Putin banked on was that most of them would defect to Russia without complaint. Instead we've had weeks of standoffs and a large number of Russian speaking Ukrainian soldiers staying Ukrainian despite all the pressure to do otherwise.


Do you really think stratetgists back in Kiev would put Russian speaking soldiers, with family inside Crimea, at bases in Crimea? I do not think Ukrainians in Kiev, making decisions, are that naive, nor unable to see possible scenarios in the future. In that context the Kremlin did not think everyone would just join the new Crimea, in my opinion. Amazing how you mindread President Putin.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 26 Mar, 2014 11:39 pm
@Foofie,
Foofie wrote:
Do you really think stratetgists back in Kiev would put Russian speaking soldiers, with family inside Crimea, at bases in Crimea?
Do you think that soldiers left side and their family?
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Thu 27 Mar, 2014 12:19 am
@Foofie,
Quote:
Do you really think stratetgists back in Kiev would put Russian speaking soldiers, with family inside Crimea, at bases in Crimea

Yes I do, I think just one of the many forms that Ukrainian ineptitude took was being lulled by the West into a false sense of security believing that the once great Russian empire had been defanged for good. It never occurred to them that Russia would walk in and take Crimea.

OOPS!
izzythepush
 
  3  
Reply Thu 27 Mar, 2014 02:33 am
@Foofie,
Foofie wrote:
. Amazing how you mindread President Putin.


Amazing how you still think you can pontificate from a position of ignorance.

Quote:
SEVASTOPOL, Crimea -- Olha's husband was a Ukrainian military specialist at the Belbek base near Sevastopol, Ukraine's main air base in Crimea, until it was stormed by Russian troops on March 22.

Now Crimea's crisis is forcing the couple to choose the least bad option for their future.

They, like the families of thousands of other Ukrainian military personnel who've lived their entire lives in Crimea, are trapped in a no-man's land.

Ukraine's acting President Oleksandr Turchnyov on March 24 ordered Kyiv's Defense Ministry to withdraw all Ukrainian troops from Crimea.

But many soldiers and their families have no place to go on the mainland unless Kyiv provides support. But if they stay, they face pressure to swear loyalty to Moscow and, according to new legislation, will automatically be made Russian nationals unless they declare their desire to retain Ukrainian citizenship -- which they fear could lead to reprisals.


http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-crimea-troops-dilemma/25309516.html
izzythepush
 
  3  
Reply Thu 27 Mar, 2014 02:37 am
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:
Yes I do, I think just one of the many forms that Ukrainian ineptitude took was being lulled by the West into a false sense of security believing that the once great Russian empire had been defanged for good. It never occurred to them that Russia would walk in and take Crimea.

OOPS!


Ineptitude? So when Yanukovych, who was president until very recently, pursued pro Russian policies, he did it because he was inept?

Why do you always think in absolutes?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Thu 27 Mar, 2014 05:35 am
@izzythepush,
Well, your source - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty - has been already criticized in the United States as not being sufficiently anti-communist ... during the Cold War and under Reagan.
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Thu 27 Mar, 2014 05:57 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Did you see the report last night that the Ukraine government has increased energy prices by 50%. I don't know if it is true but I imagine Crimea might have had theirs reduced which will give it an advantage in the market.

Perhaps that was the sub-text of the referendum.

The idea that the US will supply Europe with gas is a bit fanciful.
 

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