COUP IN KYIV?

The old one were stupid control freaks who started the war by bullying east ukraine, so no wonder the Separatists began fighting back.

Germany and Russia have been working on a secret plan to broker a peaceful solution to end international tensions over the Ukraine.

The Independent can reveal that the peace plan, being worked on by both Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, hinges on two main ambitions: stabilising the borders of Ukraine and providing the financially troubled country with a strong economic boost, particularly a new energy agreement ensuring security of gas supplies.

More controversially, if Ms Merkel’s deal were to be acceptable to the Russians, the international community would need to recognise Crimea’s independence and its annexation by Russia, a move that some members of the United Nations might find difficult to stomach.

Sources close to the secret negotiations claim that the first part of the stabilisation plan requires Russia to withdraw its financial and military support for the various pro-separatist groups operating in eastern Ukraine. As part of any such agreement, the region would be allowed some devolved powers.

At the same time, the Ukrainian President would agree not to apply to join Nato. In return, President Putin would not seek to block or interfere with the Ukraine’s new trade relations with the European Union under a pact signed a few weeks ago.

Second, the Ukraine would be offered a new long-term agreement with Russia’s Gazprom, the giant gas supplier, for future gas supplies and pricing. At present, there is no gas deal in place; Ukraine’s gas supplies are running low and are likely to run out before this winter, which would spell economic and social ruin for the country.
[...]
A spokesman for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office said they had no knowledge of such negotiations taking place. However, the spokesman said he thought it highly unlikely that either the US or UK would agree to recognising Russian control over Crimea. There was no one available at the German embassy’s press office yesterday.

Reaching a solution to the ongoing dispute is pertinent for the Germans as Russia is their single biggest trading partner. Under Ms Merkel, the Russo-German axis has strengthened significantly and, until the plane shooting, her government had been staunchly against punitive sanctions for commercial but also diplomatic reasons.
[...]
However, Russia is still the EU’s third-biggest trading partner with cross-border trade of $460bn (£272bn) last year, and the latest sanctions being introduced by the EU towards Russian individuals and banks will hurt European countries more than any other – particularly Germany, but also the City of London.
... ... ...

Our great friend Germany is negotiating with Russia to stab us in the back?

The Independent can reveal that the peace plan, being worked on by both Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, hinges on two main ambitions: stabilising the borders of Ukraine and providing the financially troubled country with a strong economic boost, particularly a new energy agreement ensuring security of gas supplies.

More controversially, if Ms Merkel’s deal were to be acceptable to the Russians, the international community would need to recognise Crimea’s independence and its annexation by Russia, a move that some members of the United Nations might find difficult to stomach.

Our great friend Germany is negotiating with Russia to stab us in the back?

The rouble was down sharply against the dollar and the euro on Friday, falling more than 2% against both currencies.

The fall threatens to pile more pressure onto Russia's ailing economy, amid speculation that Moscow will have to take action to support the rouble.

On Wednesday, the country's central bank decided to limit its intervention in the financial markets.

Analysts said the sell-off looked like panic, and policymakers would have to act to prop up the currency.

A one-off intervention by the central bank to buy roubles looked likely, as did a rise in interest rates from the current 9.5%, economists said.

The rouble has lost more than a quarter of its value since the start of 2014.

Western sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine have played a major part in the currency's decline, by making Russia an unattractive place to keep funds.

The fall in the oil price is also important, as the export of crude is a major source of foreign currency for Russia.

The central bank has been using its own reserves in an attempt to contain the rouble's fall, but on Wednesday announced limits on that intervention.

"This is full-blown panic, with signs of a self-fulfilling currency crisis," Dmitry Polevoy, chief Russia economist at ING Bank in Moscow, said in a note. "At such times, the central bank should intervene. After all, if this isn't a risk to financial stability, then what is?"

Maxim Korovin, a forex analyst at VTB Capital, in Moscow, said the rouble's depreciation "clearly poses certain risks for financial stability".

Economists are awaiting a response from Moscow. Capital Economics said in a report that it expected the central bank to act "rather more quickly" than policymakers initially hoped.

The firm said interest rates may need to rise to as much as 12% to make it more attractive to investors to hold the currency.

Ukraine's forgotten security guarantee: The Budapest Memorandum
Twenty years ago, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia and the West. Today Kyiv feels betrayed - and not merely by Moscow.

"I think there is a consensus among all these parties [international lenders] that they will step up to the plate, on the condition of course that the Ukrainian government is performing," he said.
A year of revolution and war against pro-Russian separatists in the eastern Donbass region has pushed Ukraine's currency, the hryvnia, to record lows, and crippled an economy that was already near bankruptcy after decades of corruption and mismanagement.
IMF litany of austerity and privatization
Ukraine's parliament on Thursday approved the recently elected government's package of economic reforms, aimed at securing $27 billion (22 billion euros) in loans from Western backers, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
The reforms include overhauling the tax system, raising energy tariffs, and privatizing state firms. It also includes cuts to social benefits. Many Ukrainians face a winter of poverty, with prices rising sharply for imported goods, since the country's currency is expected to weaken further.
The main opposition party criticized the reforms, calling them an "austerity package," and saying it was too harsh.
"The programme was written under dictation from the IMF. It represents a path towards the impoverishment of our people," said Yury Boiko, head of the Opposition Bloc parliamentary group.
The reform package was in fact written with considerable input from Western advisors - in particular, from the new pro-Western Ukrainian government's US sponsors. Ukraine's new finance minister, investment banker Natalie Jaresko, is a former US State Department official who was granted Ukrainian citizenship only a few days ago.

Finally, I was taken by something that I heard frequently. It is the victims — not the beneficiaries — of corruption who initiated Ukraine’s movement toward democracy and justice. For this reason, they told me, U.S. assistance should be conditional on progress toward a prescribed set of democratic goals, including the elimination of corruption, constitutional and political reforms and significant decentralization of governmental institutions.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/ukraine-cant-survive-on-its-own-120383.html#ixzz3gVWBYOOW

And impassioned and long plea from TOM DASCHLE to pull Ukraine fully into the Western orbit and away from Russia. Somehow in all those words Tom manages to completely ignore the two biggest problems with that idea.

1) That Ukraine is in almost every way broken down and decrepit, needing tens of billions of dollars of investment and complete rebuilding

2) Pushing Russia away, antagonizing them is going to be very costly and dangerous,

and we do that over that hell hole way way over there next to Russia? WHY?

Daschle says that " they deserve" it which may or may not be true but guess what, the Ukrainians dont belong to us.

Where is our interest here?

I don't think he ignored that. Didn't he call for giving them that very aid?

(and much cheaper than having a nuclear war with Russia after they invade the EU).

For some of us, we just like doing the right thing.

“Poroshenko says what the western politicians want to hear, and for some reason they believe him, but they don’t understand how impossible de-oligarchisation is in our system, how deep this post-Soviet legacy runs,” said Irina Vereshchuk, the former mayor of Rava-Ruska, a town in western Ukraine. “The oligarchs are like the blood and organs of the system, and we have nothing yet to transplant them with.”

oralloy wrote:

(and much cheaper than having a nuclear war with Russia after they invade the EU).

No they will not, china would never allow it,

oralloy wrote:

For some of us, we just like doing the right thing.

the right thing would be to leave the situation alone,

Ukraine is Russia's problem

so let them deal with and pay for Ukraine, and never give the Ukrainians the notion that we will ever lift a finger for them. Then they go get the best deal they can from Putin,

and we can all go back to more worthwhile pursuits.