31
   

COUP IN KYIV?

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 08:56 am
@revelette2,
Seems this is getting serious, since the Duma has just voted to send troops to the Ukraine and not just Crimea
Lordyaswas
 
  3  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 09:06 am
@revelette2,
I think that Ukraine should slap themselves around the face, wake up to the reality that Crimea will be grabbed by the Russians no matter what, and get round the negotiating table with them to see what best deal they can get out of the situation.
They can either negotiate it away and have plenty of goodies and a nice new shiny boundary agreement, or sabre rattle with someone who has a far bigger, turbocharged sabre, have people hurt and eventually be forced into giving up Crimea anyway.

Simplistic maybe, but not far from reality.

Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 09:18 am
@Lordyaswas,
Seems, we back in deepest cold war times ... when you listen to the parliamentary "debate" in Russia.
Lordyaswas
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 09:25 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Absolutely, Walter.

I have been out in the garden this morning, refurbishing my Anderson Shelter.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 09:57 am
@Lordyaswas,
Quote:
The federal council has now asked Putin to withdraw the Russian ambassador to the United States while other government figures use calmer rhetoric, stating the proposal to use Russian troops may not be used immediately.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 10:01 am
@Walter Hinteler,
I imagine, some will soon refer to the North Atlantic Treaty
Quote:
Article 4

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.
Foofie
 
  0  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 10:09 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

Seems this is getting serious, since the Duma has just voted to send troops to the Ukraine and not just Crimea


When General Eisenhower was President Eisenhower, the Soviets never "tested" the U.S., like they did under Kennedy, and the Cuban Missile Crises. Perhaps, they did not want to test an ex-General? And, the EU, in my opinion, is just an economic committee, representing very self-absorbed members. I think Russia understands that global economics is a zero sum game, and the EU is based on idealistic beliefs. Guess who wins.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 10:19 am
Here's some reading material. http://news.yahoo.com/russia-sent-several-hundred-troops-ukraine-us-official-225850494.html;_ylt=AwrBJR8dFxFT8n0AdAfQtDMD This is Putin's middle finger in Barack Obama's face after Obama "warned" Russia to stay out of it yesterday.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 10:27 am
@Lash,
Well, it happened a bit more since that report was published.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 10:28 am
@Lash,
Obama's bluff. http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/28/politics/ukraine-obama-statement/

A Russian can't leave that lying there.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 10:30 am
"Klitschko calls for a declaration on a general mobilisation," the retired boxing champion's political party UDAR (Punch) said, making clear he favoured a military mobilisation.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 10:33 am
@Lash,
An vid for basic info on recent events. http://news.yahoo.com/video/ukraine-prepares-face-off-russian-172751803.html
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 10:35 am
@Lordyaswas,
I think only universal, vociferous, rancorous shouting down by the world will back him Putin off now.
0 Replies
 
izzythepush
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 10:46 am
The Russian correspondent on the BBC said most of this was for domestic consumption. A lot of Russians view Crimea as Russian and they'll approve of this.

I don't think Putin will concern himself with the international community for the next few days, by going through the motions, then stopping short of invasion he can appear reasonable, but things don't always go according to plan.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 10:47 am
The UN Special Coordinator Robert Serry cancelled his planned trip to Crimea/Ukraine after consultation with local authorities ...
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 11:24 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Ukraine. Memorandum on Security Assurances

Quote:
1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

3. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

4. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

5. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm, in the case of the Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.

6. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.

Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 11:44 am
An interesting graphic on the statistics of Ukraine and Russia. (via twitter https://twitter.com/MrHalimi/status/439799475070963712/photo/1)
http://i1334.photobucket.com/albums/w641/Walter_Hinteler/a_zps4fbac00b.jpg
panzade
 
  2  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 11:47 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter, this is a good explanation of why the Budapest Memorandum is relevant.
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-explainer-budapest-memorandum/25280502.html

Hope there's no Archduke Ferdinands lurking around.
0 Replies
 
JTT
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 12:11 pm
@revelette2,
Rev: But if not, they sure are putting a lot of effort into saber rattling.
----

Have you ever noticed any of that saber rattling from the USA, Rev?
Russia hasn't illegally invaded countries over 200 times.
0 Replies
 
revelette2
 
  1  
Reply Sat 1 Mar, 2014 12:13 pm
@Lash,
The bluff, such as it is, is really not onerous to carry out, if this article is correct.

Quote:
Officials say Obama may retaliate by canceling a trip to Russia this summer for an international summit and could also cut off trade discussions with Moscow. But it's unclear whether those moves will have any impact on Russia's calculus in Ukraine, which is at the center of what many see as a tug of war between East and West.

"Any violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilizing," Obama declared Friday in a statement from the White House. Such action by Russia would represent a "profound interference" in matters that must be decided by the Ukrainian people, he said.

Separately, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said that while he would not address specific U.S. options, "this could be a very dangerous situation if this continues in a provocative way." Asked about options in a CBS News interview, he said that "we're trying to deal with a diplomatic focus, that's the appropriate, responsible approach."


source

I can't see too many countries sitting down with Russia on the trade table or some such while all this is going on.
 

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