COUP IN KYIV?

I have just travelled from Sevastopol to Simferopol. There was little sign of tension. Mostly people are just going about their business. There were blockades outside of Sevastopol manned by armed civilians with motorbikes parked nearby but there was no problem passing through.

So far, it looks much like the preliminaries to the Russian assault on Georgia back in 2008.

Then, of course, the Georgian military did the Russians the favour of moving first into the separatist enclave of South Ossetia sparking a furious Russian response.

But comparisons can be misleading.

Georgia was a small country that had deeply irritated Moscow and one that could do little to respond against Russia's overwhelming military might.

Many experts believe a similar full-scale Russian intervention in Ukraine is unlikely.

Given the size of Ukraine and the divisions within its population, it would simply saddle Russia with involvement in what might rapidly become a bitter civil war.

Russian pressure at the moment serves a different goal.

Ukraine is heading towards bankruptcy. It needs outside funding. Moscow knows that Western financial institutions must play some kind of role.

Its concern is to underline in as clear terms as possible that any future Ukrainian government should tilt as much towards Moscow as it does to the EU.

Russia's bottom line is that Kiev should resist any temptation to draw towards Nato.

UKRAINE’S ACTING PRESIDENT SIGNS DECREE RULING THAT APPOINTMENT OF PRO-RUSSIA PREMIER IN CRIMEA IS ILLEGAL

Far from taking Russia's side, China seems to be keeping the whole situation at arms length.

“In connection with the extraordinary situation in Ukraine, the threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, our compatriots, and the personnel of the armed forces of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory (in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) ... I submit a proposal on using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalisation of the socio-political situation in the that country.”

Although Ukraine has a military force capable of making Russia think twice about invasion, it has a relatively light presence in the Crimea. Russia, by contrast, has for historical reasons a huge presence on the peninsula, with its Black Sea fleet based in Sevastopol.

"It is a nightmare for everyone," said Igor Sutyagin, a Russian military expert. "The entry of Russian troops would be a deep humiliation for Ukraine … It would be a second Chechnya."

Russia has an overall military force of about 845,000 troops against Ukraine's 130,000. Russia's military spending is also vastly greater than Ukraine's, $40.7bn last year compared with $1.4bn. But the Ukrainian forces are still formidable, better-trained, engaged over the last decade in international peacekeeping missions and established close contacts with western counterparts.

Brigadier Ben Barry, a specialist on land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: "If there was ever military confrontation, the question is how much the morale and fighting-power of the Ukrainian forces would be boosted by fighting for their country."

The small armed forces surrounding the two Crimea airports had no markings on their uniforms to identify them. Moscow denied responsibility but Kiev claimed the armed group at the Belbek airport, which is used by the Ukrainian air force and is close to Sevastopol, was made up of Russian marines.

Barry said that what was striking about the forces at the airport is they do not look like a newly formed militia. "This is not a ragtag force. When you see a new militia, they will have a jumble-sale look. This lot are uniformly dressed and equipped and seem competent and efficient, " he said.

Russia has put its combat planes on alert and has begun new training exercises, moves that prompted speculation of an impending invasion similar to the one into Georgia in 2008.

But all-out invasion of Ukraine appears unlikely at present given that even if Russia was to win, it would face years of costly and bloody insurrection. Taking over just Crimea appears, at least initially, to be less risky given that more than half the population is ethnic Russian. As a peninsula, Crimea would be theoretically easy to defend.

Ukraine has only a single coastal defence unit in the Crimea, about 3,500-strong, with artillery but no tanks.

But a Russian takeover of the Crimea could turn out to be disastrous in the long run. The Kremlin would be underestimating the impact of the sizeable population of Tartars who were forcibly deported from the Crimea by Stalin in 1944 and not allowed to return until the beginning of Perestroika in the 1980s.

Sutyagin, who is at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said: "The Tartars are very anti-Russian. They will do anything not to be under the Russians. They will be determined to fight for Ukraine. It would be a second Chechnya. There are a lot of mountains in Crimea, just as in Chechnya."

Many of the soldiers fighting in the Ukrainian army are ethnic Russians but it would be a mistake to assume they might desert or turn on their officers rather than take on Russian forces. Sutyagin said loyalty to the idea of an independent Ukrainian state would top their ethnicity.

"The entry of Russian troops would be a deep humiliation for Ukraine. Ukrainians do not want to be occupied. It is a mistake by Russian politicians who think ethnic Russians are Russian," Sutyagin said.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin has asked his upper house of parliament to approve the deployment of Russian troops in Ukraine, the Kremlin says.

It follows discussions by the lower and upper house on ways to "stabilise" the situation in Ukraine's Crimea region, where many ethnic Russians live.

Earlier, the Ukrainian defence minister said Moscow had already deployed some 6,000 extra troops to Crimea.

Kiev has accused Moscow of deliberately trying to provoke a confrontation.

President Putin submitted the request "in connection with the extraordinary situation in Ukraine and the threat to the lives of Russian citizens", the Kremlin said.

He asked the upper house - which constitutionally must approve such a motion - for Russian armed forces to be used "until the normalisation of the political situation in that country".

Crimea is largely Russian-speaking and is home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

Earlier, the newly-elected pro-Moscow leader of Crimea appealed to Mr Putin for help to ensure peace on the peninsula - a request that would "not leave unnoticed" the Kremlin said at the time.

It follows days of military activity in Crimea during which unidentified, but believed to be pro-Russian, armed men moved in to take over the regional parliament, state television and telecommunications hubs.

Witnesses also spoke of seeing a build up of Russian armoured vehicles and troops in the area.

- Putin ask for right to use armed forces in Ukraine.
- Ukrainians accuse Russia of refusing dialogue.
- European foreign ministers urge Russia to respect sovereignty of Ukraine and help reduce tension.
- Pro-Russian demonstrations take place in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Odessa and other towns.
- Reports of Russian troops attempting to take Ukrainian bases in Crimea.