COUP IN KYIV?

@revelette2,

Rev quote: Any violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilizing," Obama declared Friday in a statement from the White House.
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Hellllllllooo, Earth to Obama. Can you say Iraq, Afghanistan?

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@revelette2,

US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel spoke on Saturday with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, a US official told Reuters, Asked about rumors some U.S. military units had been on alert over turmoil in the Crimean peninsula, the official said the U.S. focus was on diplomatic options.

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@Walter Hinteler,

I know, it was in the post I left. Wink

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@revelette2,

Of course not, so far all of those talks/trades/agreement etc. can all be looked at later on. So far Putin hasn't done anything to jeopardise them long term. The brinkmanship involves going far enough to please domestic opinion but not so far as to screw things up long term.

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@Walter Hinteler,

The $682 billion spent by the U.S. in 2012 was more than the combined military spending of China, Russia, the United Kingdom, Japan, France, Saudi Arabia, India, Germany, Italy and Brazil—which spent a total of $652 billion, according to the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database.

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Just who are the folks causing most of the trouble in the world? And who are their cheerleaders, pom poms and all?

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@Lash,

Lash wrote:

Obama's bluff. http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/28/politics/ukraine-obama-statement/

A Russian can't leave that lying there.

I doubt if Putin even bothered to listen to it, Lash. He has more pressure being brought to bear from his Oligarch mates, who run a slender risk of being financially inconvenienced for a month or two, or being denied visas so they can't visit London, Monaco etc and see how their mansions are coming on with various renovations.
Putin, in this instance, probably regards Obama as a slight unpleasant nuisance, rather like a fart in a spacesuit (kudos to Connolly).

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@izzythepush,

You mean as long as Putin just takes Crimea and doesn't kill people, it will be ok? Haven't Russia been trying to work out trade agreements with the US? You know, they might just have something loose as well as the US if things get messed up with it.

Quote:

The United States and Russia have agreed a draft plan for developing trade and investment cooperation, and have also begun drafting an agreement on investment protection, according to Russian Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev.

Speaking to journalists on February 26, Ulyukayev expressed satisfaction with the results of the meeting in Washington, which was attended by a working group under the Russian-U.S. Presidential Commission.

Ulyukayev was on a visit to the United States on February 23-26. The itinerary also included his meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman and U.S. business circles.

We discussed the bilateral agreements that underpin our relations, especially the outlook for signing an agreement on investment protection,” Ulyukayev said. “I am hopeful that we are approaching the practical phase in preparing these documents.” Ulyukayev added that at present, the proposed draft is being studied by experts.

He said that “more will be known” by May. “I think that we will soon be able to present our proposals to the leadership of our two countries,” he told journalists, adding that “a pragmatic solution” must be sought.

Other items on the agenda included “agreements in the area of technical regulation and simplification of trade procedures, as well as phytosanitary controls.”

source

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@revelette2,

revelette2 wrote:

So, I am curious, what do you all want to happen in this situation?

I would like the Ukrainians to successfully tell both Washington and Moscow to go to hell, retain their territorial integrity, and become a neutral state (something like Switzerland's neutrality) standing as a buffer between the powers.

I don't have much of an opinion on the naval base. I don't know why it is so important to the US to deprive Russia of the base that we'd overthrow Ukraine. And I don't know why it is so important to Russia to keep it that they'd risk splitting Ukraine apart and driving one of those parts into the arms of NATO.

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@Lordyaswas,

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@oralloy,

However, all this focus on Ukraine begs the issue of what about Crimea who has different desires from the Ukraine.

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@Ragman,

Yep. They've just brought forward their referendum to the end of March, and will no doubt demonstrate their alliegance to Russia in a big way.

It was theirs right up until the 50's, and like Walt says, the majority there consider themselves Russian.

The western world will have a hard job objecting to Crimea's wish for virtual autonomy after the people there have spoken.

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@Ragman,

Ragman wrote:

However, all this focus on Ukraine begs the issue of what about Crimea who has different desires from the Ukraine.

Crimea is part of Ukraine unless Russia forcibly splits apart the country.

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@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

And I don't know why it is so important to Russia to keep it that they'd risk splitting Ukraine apart and driving one of those parts into the arms of NATO.

It's literally the Russian port to the Mediterranean Sea.
And the idea that they want to keep it ...well, besides the more modern global policy behind it, Russia only became Russia by all those territories Catherine the Great 'created'.

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@oralloy,

Or Ukraine sees sense and turns this to a good advantage through negotiation.

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@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

Crimea is part of Ukraine unless Russia forcibly splits apart the country.

It is. But only as an autonomous republic (which is just a name, I know).

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@Walter Hinteler,

Walter Hinteler wrote:

It's literally the Russian port to the Mediterranean Sea.

But it is not Russia's only possible access to the Mediterranean. For instance, that place they just held the Olympics at could be made into a naval base.

Walter Hinteler wrote:

Russia only became Russia by all those territories Catherine the Great 'created'.

Emotional ties. That makes sense I guess.

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@Lordyaswas,

Lordyaswas wrote:

Or Ukraine sees sense and turns this to a good advantage through negotiation.

Given that the US installed this new Ukrainian government with a view towards taking this naval base away from Russia, it might be unlikely that the new government will make a move that helps to ensure Russia's control over it.

But even if they did agree to let the Russians keep using the base, the Ukrainians want the base to remain Ukrainian territory. If the Ukrainians lose any territory, the remainder of Ukraine is heading towards NATO membership.

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@oralloy,

oralloy wrote:

But it is not Russia's only possible access to the Mediterranean. For instance, that place they just held the Olympics at could be made into a naval base.

For a naval bas, you don't need just a harbour but the infrastructure as well ... especially, on the sea

Your place Sochi ...

http://i1334.photobucket.com/albums/w641/Walter_Hinteler/a_zps20759c8f.jpg

... vs the actual

http://i1334.photobucket.com/albums/w641/Walter_Hinteler/b_zps3374ad54.jpg

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@oralloy,

Quote:

US installed this new Ukrainian government with ...

What are you talking about?

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Apparently Russia says they are acting within the agreement of Ukraine keeping its sovereignty.

Quote:

Russia is interested in the stability and prosperity of Ukraine more than anyone and is acting within existing agreements, Russia’s UN ambassador Vitaly Churkin said after a private meeting of the UN Security Council on the situation in the country.

Any movements of Russian military within Crimea are in line with the existing arrangements with Ukraine on the deployment of military assets in the former Soviet republic, Churkin added, addressing media speculation on military deployments.

“We have an arrangement with Ukraine about the stationing of the Russian Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol and we are acting within the framework of that agreement,” Churkin told reporters.

source

My question is; what exactly is an Autonomous Republic?

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