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November 4th Is Election Day In The U.S.

 
 
Reply Wed 22 Jan, 2014 06:33 pm
...And voters in the country will get to vote in all 435 House districts and roughly 33 seats in the Senate.
This thread is intended as a site to talk about the upcoming season.
What do you think will be the critical issues? Which races will you be watching? What do you predict will be the outcomes?
I hope that this will be a place for analysis and discussion for the next ten months.
I have hosted something similar since about 2008. I've had a lot of help. Sometimes it has worked quite well; other times it has devolved into spitting matches.
But that is up to you.
I do respectively ask that you try to be cordial here.
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Wed 22 Jan, 2014 06:37 pm
@realjohnboy,
Good idea, johnboy.

tuning in..
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  2  
Reply Wed 22 Jan, 2014 08:13 pm
Wellofcourse, Wendy Davis/Greg Abbott for Texas governor, will be my biggest concern. Abbott is a Teaparty darling in a Republican owned state and of course Wendy wants to be the first Democrat since Ann Richards to hold the office. She is surprisingly strong in the early going, but I have no illusions about her chances.
panzade
 
  2  
Reply Wed 22 Jan, 2014 08:50 pm
@edgarblythe,
I kicked in a few bucks for her race...I still believe in miracles.
0 Replies
 
Joe Nation
 
  1  
Reply Thu 23 Jan, 2014 04:32 am
What it's going to take in every locality is for every Democrat to paste a big GOYA/KOD on their computers.

Get Off Your Ass/Knock On Doors.

And that's the easy part.

As Panzade has already done, every Democrat needs to send in the money.

Without both, effort and cash, we will not achieve what needs to be done, the removal of the Radical Right from American politics.

Joe(Go)Nation
woiyo
 
  1  
Reply Thu 23 Jan, 2014 07:16 am
@Joe Nation,
If the Democrats "Story" at this point still needs to be "Sold/Told", well, maybe you do not have much of a story to tell after all.

Your extreme views (notice how you say "WE will not achieve.."), like your counterparts on the right, are not the views of the majority in the middle.

Save your money. You just may need it if you do get to "achieve what needs to be done".
Joe Nation
 
  1  
Reply Thu 23 Jan, 2014 07:22 am
@woiyo,
Just answer the OP, woiyo.


Joe(did I mention "Sold/Told" ?)Nation
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 23 Jan, 2014 09:54 am
I hope this thread does not degenerate into an argument thread.
jespah
 
  1  
Reply Thu 23 Jan, 2014 10:09 am
Here in Mass., our governor is up for reelection. The Senate seat held by Ed Markey (won in a special election) is also up. Plus all of the House seats, of course.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  3  
Reply Thu 23 Jan, 2014 02:40 pm
There currently are 55 Dems and 45 Repubs in the U.S. Senate. We would have to see 6 seats flip for the Repubs to gain control.
There are scheduled to be 33 seats up for grabs in November. The number actually is 35 (I think) due to a couple of early retirements.
21 of the 35 are currently owned by Dems while 14 are now held Repubs.
While the general election won't be until November the real action will likely be in early summer when establishment Repubs face off with Tea Party Repubs in a number of states.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Fri 24 Jan, 2014 05:57 pm
I was roaming around the various political threads I visit. One of them posts Obama's approval/disapproval ratings from various pollsters on an almost daily basis.
One of them was Fox. In addition to the question at hand it had a link to their full poll, including the wording of what responders were asked.

What is the MOST important issue that you feel Congress and the President should address:
"The economy and jobs" ... 49% (up significantly from a few months ago)
"Health care" ... 13% (up somewhat)
"Federal deficit" ... 12% (down a bit)
"Social security" ... 6%
"Terrorism" ... 3%
"Foreign policy" ... 2%
"Guns" ... 2%
"Immigration" ... 2%

I guess it would more interesting to hear what the 2nd MOST important issue is.
0 Replies
 
Joe Nation
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Jan, 2014 07:36 am
@edgarblythe,
I apologize.

Let me start over.

Quote:
Which races will you be watching?


McConnell vs. Grimes in Kentucky. Prediction: Grimes by 8 points.

Kay Hagan vs. Anybody in North Carolina. Prediction: Hagan (after the dirtiest, campaign ever foisted on an electorate by the GOP. And that saying something given her previous race against Elizabeth Dole.)

John Cornyn vs. Steve Stockman in Texas.

Um. Steve Stockman seems to have vanished. Really. Nobody has seen him in the past week. Any news??

There's more but I'm starting with those three.

Joe(Once again. I apologize)Nation
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 25 Jan, 2014 10:14 am
@Joe Nation,
No problem, Joe.
Stockman is taking a heavy beating on TV, via commercials. I have not seen a rebuttal or anything else from him.
Joe Nation
 
  2  
Reply Sat 25 Jan, 2014 10:39 am
@edgarblythe,
Any news today?

http://www.texastribune.org/2014/01/24/brief/


Seventeen votes missed?

Staff doesn't know where he is?

Joe(somebody check the Appalachian Trail)Nation
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2014 09:20 am
The race in Kentucky is interesting. The only poll I find was by PPP from mid-December, 2013. It is about 10 pages long.
In a race between the incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) and Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), it is tied with both candidates getting about 43%. Undecided or those who say they favor someone else is about 15%.
The poll shows McConnell having a very high unfavorable rating...something like 65%. By contrast the other senator from Kentucky, Rand Paul (R), has a rating that is completely the opposite of McConnell's.
McConnell will apparently have an opponent in a primary scheduled for May. Mark Bevin is behind McConnell by something like 25 points with a big number of those polled saying, in effect, that they don't know who he is.
Bevin claims that his campaign has been unable to line up some consulting firms or advertising agencies who say that they have been warned of retribution from the McConnell people if they work for Bevin.
In should be noted that Grimes' maiden name is Lundergan. Her daddy is a long-time Democrat powerhouse in Kentucky politics with deep pockets and ties (i.e. political IOU's) going beyond state lines.
Obama, by the way, has only a 30% favorable rating in KY.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2014 03:35 pm
@realjohnboy,
Are you thinking Obama's approval by state is going to be an influence? That is, high approval will produce a vote for the Democrat?
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Sun 26 Jan, 2014 04:53 pm
@realjohnboy,
So who will KY vote for? Someone with a 65% unfavorable rating or someone with a 70% unfavorable rating? I'm guessing McConnell wins unless the tea party refuses to vote rather than vote for him.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 27 Jan, 2014 02:30 pm
Sticking with the Senate for a bit...
The Dems (including the 2 independents) control 55 seats vs 45 for the Republicans. Analysts have suggested that the Repubs could conceivably win control but it is more likely, they think, that the odds are that there will be 4 net seats switching.
The states to watch are South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Alaska, Arkansas and North Carolina. There may be others. I would, for example, now include Kentucky as a tossup.
Rassmussen has a new poll on NC showing the incumbent, Kay Hagen (D) trailing either of the Republicans by single digits. Thom Tillis leads over her by 7; the more conservative (read Teaparty) Grey Brannon by 4.
Hagen has been hurt by her support of Obamacare, so don't expect the President to be campaigning for her.
Another poll: Americans have low respect for Congress as a whole but the "vote the rascals out" didn't apply to their own members of Congress. That seems to be changing.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 29 Jan, 2014 03:59 pm
@Joe Nation,
Joe Nation wrote:

Any news today?

http://www.texastribune.org/2014/01/24/brief/


Seventeen votes missed?

Staff doesn't know where he is?

Joe(somebody check the Appalachian Trail)Nation

Steve Stockman Walks Out Of Obama's State Of The Union Address
huffingtonpost.com
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Thu 30 Jan, 2014 06:15 pm
I read today that strategists and donors for the Dems have decided to pass on trying to win the House. The odds are definitely against them.
Instead, they will focus on the Senate. I thought a month ago that there was little chance of them losing a majority there. Now I am not so sure about that.
It could be that the Dems want to see how the Repubs' primaries play out.

One Senate race is in my state of Virgina. Despite media attempts to hype it, it will remain in Dems' hands.
The incumbent is Mark Warner. He is reasonably popular throughout the state. He keeps a relatively low profile on national issues; focusing instead on the military and federal jobs that Virginia depends on.
His opponent, if he gets the nomination, will be former RNC chairman Ed Gillespie. He is well known in Washington but not in the hinterlands beyond the D.C. suburbs. The speculation is that he is hoping to lay the groundwork for a run for governor in four years.
Early polls have Warner up by 20 over Gillespie.
Today, Robert Sarvis announced that he is running as a Libertarian. He got 6.5% of the vote in the recent race for Governor. Repubs despise him, feeling that he cost them that race. I reject that. His vote tally was more likely the result of voters' unhappiness with both the Dem and Repub.
 

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