November 4th Is Election Day In The U.S.

Here's one of the many prognostication sites for the Senate
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-senate/

I actually don't follow fellow Charlottesvillian Larry Sabato that closely. I don't know why that is.
I read Friday a piece by Michael Barone in the Washington Examiner on the Senate races. He didn't really add anything new, suggesting merely that the Repubs could pick up between 3 and 11 seats.
He ended up his piece by noting that the outcome would probably come down to the "...Republicans' capacity to nominate unelectable candidates in winnable races."
That drew numerous negative comments from those aligned to the Teaparty wing of the Repubican party.
He took the time to do what I have been meaning to do. He summarized some key states' polling numbers on Senate races. RCP is his source.

State...Latest Poll...Recent Polls... Obama Approval

Alaska...39-50... 40-47... 33
Ark......37-36...40-40...35
La.......44-40...42-45... 40
Mont.....52-35...52-35...33
WV.......50-36...48-36...25
NC.......47-40...45-41...43
Co.......42-46...42-46...42
Iowa.....40-43...39-42...42
Mich.....37-35...39-38...48
NH.......44-44...42-46...45
South Dakota- No Polls... 32

The first number in each pairing is for the leading Repub against the leading Dem.

Negative comments notwithstanding, it sounds very true.

Rasmussen came out with a new poll on the race for Senate in Kentucky. The incumbent is Mitch McConnell (R), who is majority leader. His Dem opponent is Alison Lundergan Grimes. Rasmussen has it tied at 42%-42%, with 6% for "other" and 10% "undecided."
McConnell must first face a primary. His opponent will be Matt Bevin.
I haven't signed up yet for full access to details of Rasmussen's polls ($4/mo).
I can see an additional detail in the Rasmussen short report of the poll. It shows Bevin having a 6 point lead over Grimes.
The poll was done around 1/29 and the sample was of 500 Likely Voters (LV) with a margin of error of 4.5 points at 95% confidence.

More Than You Would Ever Want To Know About South Carolina...
...where the incumbent Republican, Lindsey Graham, is up for re-election. The Democrats have no chance of winning.
The contest that Graham faces is in the June primary where, at last count, there are five opponents. He is perceived as a RINO largely for his support for immigration reform and some other issues being pushed by President Obama.
Winthrop University (Rock Hill, SC) has a poll out today on the primary which shows Graham at 45% while his opponents, combined, come in at 20%. 35% of the self-described likely to vote Republicans are "undecided."
The intriguing thing in SC is that, if Graham doesn't get 50% of the vote in the primary, there will be run-off two weeks later: Graham vs the 2nd place candidate.
The Winthrop polling people had a nicely written summary of the race in which they made the case against using the headline "Graham Is In Trouble" or "Graham Is A Shoe-In."
They seem to suggest that in SC this will be a test of how strong of a force the conservative wing of the GOP (read Tea Party) is.

Harris County and then all of Texas - taken from PDiddie's blog.

Easy on the WTF and not so much SMH (Harris County and across Texas)
As Charles has noted, there's good news here.

-- Kim Ogg over Lloyd Oliver for District Attorney, Steven Kirkland over Lori Gray for Judge of the 113th Civil District Court.

Sanity prevailed. Ogg breezed with 76% while Kirkland built on an early-vote lead and hit 54%. The good guys and gals won and the bad guys lost.

-- The biggest news locally was the Harris GOP chair going down in flames. Paul Simpson, the challenger to Jared Woodfill, crushed the longtime incumbent 53-37 (with third candidate Wendy M. Berry getting the other 10).

I watched this play out over the last few days on Big Jolly's blog, and ony saw Woodfill coasting to re-election. In working my precinct over the past couple of weeks -- when my health allowed -- I saw more signs for Paul Simpson than for anyone else (though Wendy Davis and Jerry Patterson ran a close second and third). You know the old saying, though; yard signs don't vote.

It was Jolly's posts that fascinated me: his endorsement of Woodfill over Simpson (despite having denounced Woodfill repeatedly in posts in the past), his strident condemnation of the gay hatred running rampant among Woodfill-ites, his appearance at the Hate the Gay Marriage rally at HCRP HQ on Monday, particularly with this line...

The HCRP’s crazy uncle (Dr. Steven Hotze) even smiled at me – I winked at him – he blushed. No telling what he’s thinking right now.

You have to read all of that if you want to get a glimpse into the ironies, contradictions, cognitive dissonance, and outright hypocrisy that permeate the local Republican chapter. Considering that the Harris County GOP is one of the largest in the country, not just the state, what's roiling and boiling them over is that the moderates seem to still have the upper hand. Ed Emmett gambled big and won. Two of the other county commissioners and a host of other GOP highlifes lost. Emily Deprang at the Texas Observer...

Earlier (last night), I called Harris GOP chair candidate Paul Simpson the conservative Punxsutawney Phil because a win for him could signal moderation afoot. Simpson ran against 12-year incumbent Jared Woodfill for the third time on a platform of broadening the party base and easing off social issues—and he won. With nearly all precincts reporting, Simpson took 53 percent in a three-way race. Woodfill got just 37. This wasn’t a fluke, either. Simpson got a boost from big names like Harris County Judge Ed Emmett and raised $145,000 for a position that doesn’t pay a dime. It does, however, influence the state party’s direction. This should be interesting.

There is moderation among urban Texas Republicans; not so much the suburbanites and rurals. Sarah Davis, the most liberal Republican in the Texas House, won her primary against her from-the-right challenger by 2-1. But evidence that the Tea Party still holds sway outside the big cities is all of the incumbent GOP state legislators who lost their primaries across the state. Paul Burka:

On the Senate side, Bob Hall pushed incumbent Robert Deuell into a runoff. Konni Burton leads Mark Shelton into the runoff. Donald Huffines is leading incumbent John Carona. So far the only Empower Texans-endorsed candidate not to push through is Mike Canon, who lost to Kel Seliger.

As for the House, of the 20 or so key races I was following, the majority of those supportive of the leadership won (some key knockoffs were Linda Harper-Brown, a committee chair, Ralph Sheffield, Bennett Ratliff, and Diane Patrick). Of those incumbers backed by Empower Texans who were being challenged, Jonathan Stickland, Charles Perry, and Matt Schaefer won their races. Stefani Carter is in a runoff after coming in second (and running a poor campaign). Several Empower Texans candidates pulled through in the open seats as well--T.J, Fabby and Ted Seago led their races into the runoff, and Mark Keough won outright.

The Lege is going to get more red, but not because of Republicans in the metros.

Finally, some Congressional races to take note of.

-- CD-36 has a GOP runoff between Woodville mayor and dentist Brian Babin and Houston businessman and Tea Party favorite Ben Streusand. One of these two will (probably) succeed Steve Stockman in Congress. Once again, read all about them both at Big Jolly. The Libertarian-turned-Democrat is Michael Cole, and there's also a Libertarian and a Green and an independent running.

-- CD-7's Democratic primary had a more predictable outcome: James Cargas over Lissa Squiers. Cargas, one of the lousiest persons (not to mention aspiring politicians) I have ever encountered in any party, ran again this year just to spite his primary opponent. He abandoned some of the sneaky, underhanded dirty tricks he pulled two years ago, and instead smeared a whole new truckload of slime. Cargas underperformed the Democratic ticket in Harris County in 2012, and also underperformed the Democrats who have run in the district going back ten years, with 36% of the vote. He managed that in an Obama presidential election year, too.

The over/under for Cargas' rematch with John Culberson in November is 33.3 -- the same number that John Martinez got in 2004. I'm betting heavily on the under. And as in 2012 (if I don't undervote it, that is) I'll cast a ballot for the Libertarian.
Posted by PDiddie at Wednesday, March 05, 2014 1 comment:
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Just a dash of WTF (statewide races)
But a lot of SMH. The no-surprises:

-- Wendy Davis, John Cornyn, and Greg Abbott.

There was no discernible effort by TeaBagger Country to send a statement in the top races on the Republican ticket. They saved their best for down-ballot.

The OMGs:

-- David "Money to Burn" Alameel led the field with 50%+ in early returns but finished at 47, pushed into a May runoff with Impeacha Rogers, who got 22%. This is worse than a disaster for Democrats. I can vote for Emily "Spicybrown" Sanchez (and I hope a lot of Latino Democrats in the RGV do the same) with a clean conscience, unlike Gadfly.

-- Dan Patrick (R-LG) over The Dew 41-28, Ken Paxton (R-AG) leading Dan Branch 44-33, Glenn Hegar (R-Compt.) apparently beating Harvey Hilderbrand and Debra Medina without a runoff, Jim Hogan (D-Ag Commish) ahead of Kinky Friedman 39-38, and Sid Miller (R-Ag Commish) besting a field of five with 35% but in a runoff with Tommy Merritt.

Dan Patrick led nearly every urban county. He steamrolled Dewhurst and will finish him off in May. For comparison's sake, Dewhurst led Ted Cruz 45-34 in 2012's US Senate primary, and Cruz won the runoff with 56-43. Dewhurst actually lost almost two percentage points in the runoff.

Paxton and Branch are both North Texas statewide legislators, one (Paxton) slightly more socially conservative than the other (Branch). Both spent heavily on TV ads and sent ultra-RWNJ Barry Smitherman to the sidelines.

"Guns" Hegar's TV ads paid off and embarrassed the TexTrib's poll badly.

"No Name Means Everything" Jim Hogan, who raised no money and spent less than $5K of his own -- but none of it on a website -- led The Kinkster into a runoff for the Democratic nomination for Agriculture Commissioner. The best candidate in the race, Hugh Fitzsimons, ate their dust. It gets worse, however, because...

Sid Miller, who authored the sonogram law, who pulls his quarter horses behind his truck -- and not inside a trailer -- and who has Ted Nugent as his campaign manager, leads the Republican side for ag commissioner.

I'll be proudly voting for the Green, Kenneth Kendrick, in November no matter which of these exceptional blue and red morons prevails in the spring.

-- Last, Wayne "I am the Most" Christian leads Ryan Sitton into a runoff for Railroad Commission on the Republican side, 43-31. State Impact notes that like so many other Republicans in contested primaries, they ran on an anti-Obama platform and not oil and gas issues. And in a nutshell, that's why my friend Prairie Weather misses the mark here. You can't understand Texas politics by reading DC and NY media. Update: Talking Points Memo does seem to get the nuances in the TXGOP dynamic (but that's because Ed Kilgore wrote it). And Booman has his take on both Kilgore's and John Fund's reaction to yesterday. Note this at the very end.

Kilgore notes that even insofar as the Establishment had a decent night, they accomplished it by moving (or being pulled) to the right. How that works in detail depends on the issue you're concerned with. When a candidate has merely given lip service to a radical position, that's one thing. When they've felt compelled to make radical pledges and promises, that's another.

The Republican Establishment in Texas may remain distinguishable from the howling horde in some substantive ways, but the way they present themselves to the nation is now just plain frightening.

The GOP's biggest delegation looks and sounds just like Louie Gohmert. The smarter ones look and sound just like Ted Cruz.

That's going to be a problem for the national party going forward.

Thanks, Edgar. The national media focused on the races in Texas for top tier jobs. It was interesting to delve deeper to find out what is really going on re the Tea Party vs more conventional Repubs.
Coming up on Tuesday: the special election in Fla to fill a vacant House seat.

More than you would ever want to know about the...
North Carolina Senate Race

The Dems hold the U.S. Senate by a 55-45 margin. Whether that holds after the November mid-terms is doubt. The Dems could lose 4 seats - or 10 - or somewhere in between. My thinking right now is that they will lose 7, giving the Repubs the majority in both of the legislative chambers.
NC is one to watch.
Kay Hagan (D) won in 2008 against the incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Hagan rode Obama's coattails. Romney carried the state in 2012.
Her bid for another term is hindered by the fact that it is an off year election as well as her support for Obamacare and her ties to Senate majority leader Harry Reid.
The Repubs have a very crowded field vying to challenge her. 8 candidates are on the ballot for the 5/6 primary.
Thom Tillis - described as the Establishment's choice is ahead in the polls at 18%.
Greg Benson - who gets the Tea Party's nod is at 15%
Mark Harris - is favored by evangelicals.
The other candidates poll in the mid to low single digits. 34% of Repubs in NC polled say they are undecided.
If no candidate receives 40% of the vote in the primary there will be a run off between the top two on 7/14.

Sigh.

But thanks for the update.

In the NC Republican primary...
The "Undecided" voters seem to be breaking for Thom Tillis vs Greg Brannon ahead of the contest next Tuesday. Tillis, the "establishment" candidate has opened up a sizable lead over Brannon who has support from the teaparty wing of the GOP.
Significantly, Tillis may get over 40% of the vote which would preclude the need for a costly runoff.

I saw somewhere a chart on the NC general elections on the topic of voter turnout (it may have been from Nate Silver's 538 site). The upshot was about the Dem's problems in 2014 - an "off year" election:

...................................... 2008 ..... 2010 .... 2012
Young voters (18-24) ....... 10% ...... 4% ....... 10%
Blacks .............................. 22% ..... 20% ...... 23%

Older voters (55-Up) ....... 18% ...... 26% ..... 20%
Whites ............................. 73% ...... 77% ..... 71%

The 1st two categories, presumably, might lean Dem while the last two might tend Repub.
The percents shown were of total NC voters in the years shown. 2008 and 2012 were, of course, presidential election years.
Obama carried NC in '08 while Romney won in '12.

It's Primary day in Texas!
But it really doesn't matter in the grand scheme: the Repubs will end up winning most, if not all, of the races in November.
One of the contests tonight features the oldest member of the U.S. House, Ralph Hall. He is 91 and the only WW2 veteran in Congress.
His Repub opponent is a mere 48. John Ratcliff has been waiting in the wings for eight years expecting Hall to die...or at least to retire.
If Hall loses, he would be the first incumbent this cycle to lose. Although most voters have a low opinion of Congress members, the anger doesn't apply to their own representatives.
Polls in the district of NE Texas show Hall to be losing but turnout is expected to be really, really low. Ratcliff may have turned off more than a few older voters by attacking Hall on his age.

Thanks, that'll be interesting.

In Texas, it's a Teaparty fest day.

Indeed, edgar. In the Lt Gov race it appears the 3-time incumbent Dewhurst will lose to a TP candidate and the Atty Gen race will also go against the establishment Repub.

We Republicans do have a certain talent for fratricide, don't we?

The man who will become our next governor is a clone of Rick Perry.

Drop the old time religion and I would be good with that.

Lemmings R Us