25
   

The Democrats will win again in 2016

 
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2012 04:06 am
@blueveinedthrobber,
Hi old friend
I'm less alarmed than many on the left. Our present position is quite a ways from where I'd like it to be but I don't share the anger some on the left feel towards this president because the office is severely limited in what might be done from there by anyone. Alterman's piece "Kabuki Democracy: Why a Progressive Presidency is Impossible, For Now" is a must-read... http://www.thenation.com/article/37165/kabuki-democracy-why-progressive-presidency-impossible-now#
blatham
 
  0  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2012 04:23 am
@Robert Gentel,
tes
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  0  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2012 05:34 am
@IsmailaGodHasHeard,
I think one did in 2008 and 2012
0 Replies
 
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2012 07:24 am
@blatham,
Quote:
Re: blueveinedthrobber (Post 5199480)
Hi old friend
I'm less alarmed than many on the left. Our present position is quite a ways from where I'd like it to be but I don't share the anger some on the left feel towards this president because the office is severely limited in what might be done from there by anyone. Alterman's piece "Kabuki Democracy: Why a Progressive Presidency is Impossible, For Now" is a must-read... http://www.thenation.com/article/37165/kabuki-democracy-why-progressive-presidency-impossible-now#


Fact is, Bernie, some of the "alarm" on the left has actually turned to hysteria...and is way, way out of order.

Glad you feel the way you do. I am with you on this.
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2012 10:05 am
@Frank Apisa,
Good morning, Frank. Windy as hell here on the east coast of Vancouver Island. Trees down here and there. God knows what it's like over on the west side. We're quite close to the water (about a four iron, if there was no wind, but as I said, there is). So I guess you could say it's like inland New Jersey during a hurricane but without the criminals and the women.

I get a lot of poop for this position on the presidency and my apparent apologias for Obama from the sort of folks you reference but I don't care. I'm just trying to get it right. But in any case, movements need and will inevitably have their fringe or leading edge and there's value in those voices too. "Make me", as FDR is reported to have said.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Jan, 2013 06:49 am
@JPB,
JPB wrote:

I think it depends on how many states revamp their Electoral College votes between now and then. There are a number of states considering doing partial allocations based on % of the popular vote. This would help the Rs if it is done more in states with a large R population but went D because of urban centers. Places like Texas which went R but had 41% of the votes going Dem aren't considering it. The EC allocation is decided on a state-by-state basis. They could very well finagle their way into the WH in 2016 by picking and choosing which states do partial EC allocations based on the popular vote in that state.


All's fair in love, war and politics. Stay tuned.

Quote:
Republicans in Virginia and a handful of other battleground states are pushing for far-reaching changes to the electoral college in an attempt to counter recent success by Democrats.

In the vast majority of states, the presidential candidate who wins receives all of that state’s electoral votes. The proposed changes would instead apportion electoral votes by congressional district, a setup far more favorable to Republicans. Under such a system in Virginia, for instance, President Obama would have claimed four of the state’s 13 electoral votes in the 2012 election, rather than all of them.

Other states considering similar changes include Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, which share a common dynamic with Virginia: They went for Obama in the past two elections but are controlled by Republicans at the state level.

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus recently voiced support for the effort, saying it is something that “a lot of states that have been consistently blue that are fully controlled red ought to be looking at.”More at Washington Post
revelette
 
  2  
Reply Fri 25 Jan, 2013 09:55 am
@JPB,
Florida House Speaker Weatherford: changing the Electoral College is for sore loser

Quote:
Republicans in five states, notably Virginia, have discussed changing the way they award Electoral College votes in presidential races by apportioning them on each congressional district, rather than the state's popular vote.

The reason: Republican Mitt Romney would have won the presidency despite losing the popular vote in states where the GOP controls the legislatures: Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida.

But Florida, the largest swing state, won't go along with changing the Electoral College if Florida House Speaker Will Weatherford has any say (and he has a major say).

"To me, that's like saying in a football game, 'We should have only three quarters, because we were winning after three quarters and the beat us in the fourth," Weatherford, a Republican, told the Herald/Times. "I don't think we need to change the rules of the game, I think we need to get better."

In Virginia, state Republicans are going with the why-get-better? approach. They're getting a bill ready for a vote that, had it been in effect in November, would have given Obama about 30 percent of the Electoral College votes, even though he won 51 percent of the popular vote in that state. Obama only won four of the nine Virginia congressional seats because they've been drawn to favor Republicans.




0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  -4  
Reply Fri 25 Jan, 2013 10:01 am


Dianne Feinswine's Assault Weapons Ban is Political Suicide For Democrats in 2014 & 2016
revelette
 
  2  
Reply Fri 25 Jan, 2013 10:18 am
@H2O MAN,
Quote:
Dianne Feinswine's Assault Weapons Ban is Political Suicide For Democrats in 2014 & 2016


Like your predictions of Obama being a one term President, so far the polls don't bear out your usual predictions.

Quote:
By an overwhelming majority, Americans favor background checks for gun sales and in most cases, for sales at gun shows. The average response was 88 percent in favor of background checks, with a low of 84 percent for the Associated Press poll and a high of 92 percent in surveys from CBS and CNN.

Two other questions, asked in seven polls, were about controversial measures that will be included in proposed congressional anti-gun-violence legislation.

By an average response of 57 percent, people favored a ban on high-capacity gun clips, while 56 percent of Americans approved of a ban on assault rifles and semi-automatic weapons.

But when it comes to a perceived need for gun control versus the right to own guns, as interpreted by courts in the context of the Second Amendment, Americans seem split on the issue.

About 50 percent of people, in an average of three polls, were concerned that gun-control legislation would take weapons away from them, or believed protection from gun violence was a lesser concern than protecting their Second Amendment rights.

In addition to background checks, another idea that has widespread support is devoting more funds and attention to mental health issues. An average of 83 percent of people surveyed in four polls favored increased attention to mental health programs.

Of the 12 ideas that appeared across the grouping of nine polls, the least popular was arming teachers and school officials with guns. It only had a support rate of 41 percent.

The National Rifle Association was given a favorable rating of 48 percent in an average of five polls.


source
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Sat 26 Jan, 2013 05:50 am
It looks like the effort in VA will fail.

Quote:
A bill to change the way Virginia awards its electoral college votes, and perhaps boost Republicans’ prospects in a state that went for Barack Obama in the last two presidential elections, appears to be headed for defeat.

Gov. Robert F. McDonnell (R) and two GOP senators on a crucial committee came out against the measure Friday, apparently dooming its chances of getting to the Senate floor. More
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Sat 26 Jan, 2013 04:20 pm
@JPB,
The GOP got pretty freaked out, when they realized that the Dems could easily turn such a system to their advantage. Right now the big organizing groups focusing on GOTV in a massive way in the urbanized areas, but a change in the way votes were counted would herald a change in the way GOTV was handled as well.

The GOP has very little chance of wining any of the urban areas, even if the Dems didn't focus on them at all. If the electoral vote for the city of Philly counts the same if the Dems win by 55-45%, as it does if they win by 80%, it would free up a LOT of resources for the Dems to start working harder on the suburbs and rural areas. That could mean a disaster for the GOP in a variety of ways.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
MontereyJack
 
  2  
Reply Sat 26 Jan, 2013 04:36 pm
In the aftermath of the 2000 election, in which Al Gore was the choice of about 500,000 more voters than the disaster W. Bush, but lost in the Electoral College after SCOTUS's partisan decision, there was a movement afoot to change the Electoral College to require each state's electors to vote for the winner of the popular vote. No one seems to be advocating that this time around, but it seems to me to be an eminently fair democratic (small "d") way to do it, even in the unlikely event Republicans beat all the demographic odds and national political opinion against them and win in 2016.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  0  
Reply Sat 26 Jan, 2013 11:15 pm
Perhaps they will, but it is a boon for Republicans that Democrats are so smugly confident of the prediction.
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Jan, 2013 08:06 am
@Finn dAbuzz,
Seems to me that the GOP needs to end its internal problems before they plan on spending lotsa money on their "vetted" candidates.
The primary process has forced the selection of the most conservative candidates that cannot possibly win in the general elections.
The example in Delaware was always my favorite. Mike Castle was a GOP candidate that even most Dems would have voted for. Hes a reasonable , pragmatic, fiscally responsible conservative leaning but socially progressive GOP . He was drummed out in the primary process by forcing a real wacko (nobody remembers Christine anymore do they?) to carry the party standard. That forced the election to select a less than qualified Dem who will probably learn on the job because Delaware cant resolve the fractionation of the GOP party.

How many times can this be repeated throughout the nation?

I suppose it can help in House races where the urban abnd increasing suburban areas are growing democrat bases , but rural and Ruburb areas are safely GOP. However, Senate races will probably lean more Dem since the nation as a whole IS NOT as conservative as Rush Limbaugh would have you believe

0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Jan, 2013 12:30 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
Perhaps they will, but it is a boon for Republicans that Democrats are so smugly confident of the prediction.


But we're always smug so no particular leg up there for you.

You read so will be well aware that Republicans themselves understand the demographic and other trends working against them electorally. Also that they appreciate that the crackpot element has gained far too high a profile. To this point, they are continuing to be seriously dumb about this problem, maintaining that their solution is marketing rather than, say, actually changing the party platform and trying to regain their party from those crazy folks they relied on for so long to provide activism and votes. But I don't think they'll pull it off until the damage is far deeper.

Another serious institutional problem for them is the wingnut welfare system that has been set up to forward ideology and electoral advantage. You're probably aware that, for example, Dick Armey revealed a few weeks ago that Freedom Works had funneled a million a year to Beck and Limbaugh to do propaganda favorable to that Koch group. That's one teeny sliver of the big money flowing into extremist conservatism and supporting it within the right wing universe. Just taking Palin off of FOX ain't gonna get your party sane again.
Frank Apisa
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Jan, 2013 12:42 pm
@blatham,
Good to see you posting, Bernie. Stick around. Lots of fun here. Wink
H2O MAN
 
  -1  
Reply Sun 27 Jan, 2013 12:44 pm
@Robert Gentel,
I predict that the Republican Party will win the presidential election by a wide margin in 2016.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Jan, 2013 01:05 pm
@Frank Apisa,
Always good to see you, frank. Posting will be infrequent but now and again, likely.
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Jan, 2013 01:05 pm
@blatham,
ps... very good piece by Garry Wills on the south here... http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 27 Jan, 2013 01:10 pm
@blatham,
And one more of peripheral relevance, on the Catholic church's handy move from high and absolute principle to saving-bucks-utility...

"The [Catholic] hospital's defense, so far successful, is to claim that because the twins were fetuses and not people, this can't legally be viewed as a wrongful-death situation." http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2013/01/26/16712604-this-week-in-god?lite

0 Replies
 
 

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