Romney 2012?

@jcboy,

A few observations about Chris Christie:

1) The devastation wrought by Sandy on his beloved NJ shook him to the core. I've met many a person in such an emotional state who appreciate beyond measure any kind word and deed. Obama, to his credit, gave Christie what he needed and the latter gushed uncontrollably.

2) Christie cultivates an image of a maverick.

3) Christie has greater political ambitions than being the Gov of New Jersey.

I think talk about him being a traitor and such is ridiculous, although I think if he was in a normal state of mind he wouldn't have been as fulsome about Obama as he has been, but this isn't going to have much of an impact on the election.

If everyone in NJ and NY now decides to vote for the president, it won't change anything.

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@Irishk,

You are spot on

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@sozobe,

Christie kept Obama off the campaign trail today... Christie also predicted
the momentum of this election world turn on a dime after the 1st debate.

Christie done good and I like that he was able to get ROMNEY written in
the sand in time for the presidential fly over... classic!

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The Democrats and their supporters are hanging their hats on "the ground game," because that's what the MSM keeps feeding them.

I'm not sure why the Obama campaign has put such emphasis on early voting, other than they don't trust their base to show up on Election Day. (I'm sure they thank Gaia it's not on a Monday), but while it apparently worked very well for them in 2008, not so much now. Romney is leading in early voters according to polls. (Now I'm sure someone will produce a poll or two that suggests otherwise, but this is the word on the street).

Romney also, it would strongly appear, has a sizeable advantage among Independents.

So, on the left we have a group of core Obama supporters and on the right we have a group of core Romney supporters. These people made up their minds long ago and virtually nothing will change them.

In the middle we have a group which is tracking for Romney.

Unless the core group on the left is much bigger than the one on the right, and/or the members of the latter turn out in greater numbers on Election day than the members of the former, Romney is going to win.

Since the beginning of Early Voting, Republicans have had a greater turnout on Election Day then Democrats. If they counted only the votes cast on Election Day, McCain would have won. If Romney is beating Obama in Early Voting, it spells trouble for the president.

Anyone who claims that they know for certain what will happen or that there are any dispositive polls are full of baloney. It's all speculation (some informed some not so) at this point.

Even Obama's biggest supporters cannot say with a straight face that they expect the turnout he got in 2008, and so any poll that is based on a 2008 voter distribution (and many have been inflated in this regard) is highly suspect.

A 2% lead by Obama anywhere is within the statistical margin of error and there are plenty of errors with the statistics.

I'm fairly confident we will find after the election that a 2% polling lead for Obama materialized as a 1% to 2% voting lead for Romney.

We don't have access to the most reliable of polls which are those of the respective campaigns that shouldn't be looking to spin and should be looking for the best predictions.

However, we can get an idea of what those polls are telling the campaigns by virtue of their activity.

If the Obama campaign has decided to devoted resources to Pennsylvania, Minesota, and Wisconsin (among others) they must believe there is vulnerability to address.

It's going to be a close one but take a look at who seems to be scrambling in the days ahead.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Quote:

The Democrats and their supporters are hanging their hats on "the ground game," because that's what the MSM keeps feeding them.

Actually, I'd say we're hanging our hats on the preponderance of polls that show Obama ahead in more than enough states to win.

Quote:

Romney is leading in early voters according to polls.

I challenge you to show any polls of swing states that show this to be the case. It certainly isn't in OH, FL or IA. It's not even the case in NC.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Excellent!

I just felt this thrill going up my leg, I get that feeling when I know Democrats are in a panic

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Finn dAbuzz wrote:

The Democrats and their supporters are hanging their hats on "the ground game," because that's what the MSM keeps feeding them.

Ain't that the truth

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Finn dAbuzz wrote:

You are spot on

Um, ElectionProjection.com is projecting that Obama will win the election, and that Romney will win the popular vote by .7%. So, I think you may not necessarily be happy in your agreement Laughing

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Latest Rasmussen Polls Project Romney To Win 279+ Electoral Votes

According to the latest Rasmussen state polls, Mitt Romney is in position to win the presidency; he should win at least 279 electoral votes. Romney leads in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire; Obama leads in Nevada. Wisconsin and Iowa are tied. Were Romney to win both Wisconsin and Iowa, he’d secure another 16 electoral votes, putting him at 295 electoral votes.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

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@H2O MAN,

Now Cyclo will challenge you to show another poll with this contention.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

I'm still waiting for you to provide any poll that shows Republicans ahead in early voting in the swing states. A single one.

Bet ya won't -

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

On ElectionProjection, you just gotta read the fine print lol...from the blog (where he tells how he really feels):

Quote:

"Sifting through the plethora of factors in the run up to Election day - national polling, voter enthusiasm, candidate campaign scheduling, early voting results, to name a few - I have become convinced that Mitt Romney is on the path to victory.

I also know that pollsters don't want to be wrong. And that's why I believe we're in store for ever-improving Romney numbers in state polls that will be released between now and November 6. Before next Tuesday, look for Obama's 2.7-point lead in aggregate Ohio polling to shrink to zero, look for a couple polls coming out of Wisconsin to put Romney up by a point or two. Also, look for polls in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire (except, perhaps, for UNH) to show Romney pulling into a clear lead in those states.

President Obama is on the ropes and fading. All the signs are there. All, that is, except for battleground state polls. No worries there, though, they'll fall in line soon enough.

All that's left is the waiting! Exciting, no?

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@Cycloptichorn,

Have I not been clear?

Who gives a damn about all of these polls?

(well, obviously you do about the ones that favor your point of view)

I post based upon what I read and hear and I don't jot down citations for each and every point. If this doesn't comport with the way you think debate should be conducted in this forum...tough ****.

You have repeatedly made it clear that you dismiss anything I post so why do you keep responding?

I'm not going to provided you with the silly ass "proof" you always demand, so please put me on Ignore.

Do you really think any of these polls can tell the future?

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@Irishk,

Irishk wrote:

On ElectionProjection, you just gotta read the fine print lol...from the blog (where he tells how he really feels):

Well, it's probably instructive to include the line directly proceeding the one you posted here:

Quote:

However, he also doesn't appear to put any stock into the idea that polls might be skewed in favor of Obama and other Democratic candidates. I do.

There's zero reason, from a statistical viewpoint, to believe this is true. Just no evidence of it, other than the 'gut feeling' that many right-wingers have. They see polls that show a lead of D+8, and say 'wow, that HAS to be wrong!' But, it doesn't have to be wrong, if more and more former members of the GOP are self-identifying as Independents, which isn't a crazy thing to believe, as many Tea Partiers just spent several years telling us exactly that! This also matches up nicely with the advantage that Romney is seeing among Independents in many polls.

Denying the results of polling because you don't like them is always a dangerous game to play, when you're in the projection business.

Quote:

"Sifting through the plethora of factors in the run up to Election day - national polling, voter enthusiasm, candidate campaign scheduling, early voting results, to name a few - I have become convinced that Mitt Romney is on the path to victory.

But his numbers directly contradict his gut feelings. I don't know how to account for which one might be right.

Quote:

I also know that pollsters don't want to be wrong. And that's why I believe we're in store for ever-improving Romney numbers in state polls that will be released between now and November 6. Before next Tuesday, look for Obama's 2.7-point lead in aggregate Ohio polling to shrink to zero, look for a couple polls coming out of Wisconsin to put Romney up by a point or two. Also, look for polls in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire (except, perhaps, for UNH) to show Romney pulling into a clear lead in those states.

The guy who wrote this did so on October 27th. Today is the 31st, the election is less than a week away. And NONE of these predictions have come true.

Obama's lead in OH hasn't shrunk - with the exception of a Ras poll that puts Romney up 2 points (and even THAT poll shows Obama leading early voting 63-37, with a third reporting early voting), Obama has still gotten very good results there. When are these polls going to come out, that show Obama falling behind?

VA, FL, and NC haven't showed a clear lead for Romney (NC is arguable). CO and NH are now showing an Obama lead in the polling averages!

I guess it's possible that there will be a large amount of poor polls for Obama coming out this weekend, but I sure don't see it happening so far. And I think this recent weather event, and Obama's response to it, aren't going to help Romney at all.

Quote:

Quote:
President Obama is on the ropes and fading. All the signs are there. All, that is, except for battleground state polls. No worries there, though, they'll fall in line soon enough.

All that's left is the waiting! Exciting, no?

I think that this is what we refer to as 'cheerleading.' His own evidence and models are contradicting what he is predicting will happen. That's never a good position to be in.

It is exciting... I would be a lot more worried if Obama hadn't seen his poll numbers firm up across the board lately.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Finn dAbuzz,

Finn dAbuzz wrote:

I post based upon what I read and hear and I don't jot down citations for each and every point.

You don't jot down citations for ANY of your points. You just lie and then refuse to admit it when called on it. None of this is new.

Yes, I'm aware that there's a lot of hopeful talk on right-wing message boards, but there's no evidence to back it up. That should worry you.

Quote:

Do you really think any of these polls can tell the future?

If you knew anything about the historical record of polling and predictions, you wouldn't ask this question. But, you don't, and can't be bothered to do any actual research, so the job of pointing out your continual stream of BS falls to me and mine.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Please, put me on Ignore.

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@Cycloptichorn,

Oh, that line he was talking about Nate and polls that sampled high for Democrats. I remember that Nate tweeted he was going to do a column on it, but not sure if he did or not (I've been busy with my paint fumes lol). But even Nate's letting some little doubts creep in over those state polls.

Who can say for sure? Maybe the pollsters have reason to believe that turnout will mirror 2008 and sample thusly (maybe basing it on the Dem superior ground game).

I'm not one to dismiss the polls, though. At all. I might question their methodology lol.

Maybe EP guy is painting his house Smile

We'll soon find out.

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@Finn dAbuzz,

Never going to happen. I think the other viewers of A2K deserve to have someone take the time and effort to point out your constant stream of bullshit and lies. You aren't required to read what I write.

Cycloptichorn

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@Cycloptichorn,

Don't worry Cyclo,
With just a little luck, you probably won't be hearing from him a fraction as much (at least for a while) after Nov 6th.

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@Irishk,

No doubt you expected Cyclo to swoop in and counter your post, considering it smacked of an argument that his side would lose.

He's like a anti-buzzard looking to pounce on signs of vitality and truth.

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