Do you think Zimmerman will be convicted of murder?

i expect him to remain convinced that murder is the way to go

Are you saying that based on the available evidence you believe it was an act of murder?

i rarely concern myself with facts or evidence, i just trust my gut, my gut says he provoked an incident that allowed him to attempt to get away with murder, using the SYG law

I think he is a murderer. I think (cynically) that he was charged with 2nd degree murder, instead of manslaughter, but that the evidence won't be compelling enough and he'll walk.

I think he will plead guilty to a lesser charge, serve less than four years and then be freed.

Joe(so it goes)Nation

I think he's guilty of homicide, but maybe not murder.

I think he'll plead guilty to manslaughter.

No one here can say if he will be convicted. Of more interest to me will the community reaction if he is acquitted. Shades of Rodney King.

I think he's guilty of second degree murder, but won't be convicted. I understand Florida allows the prosecution to prosecute for murder, while allowing the jury to convict on a lesser charge. If this is the case, prosecution has nothing to lose, and may use the higher charge to extract an easy plea.

Hey, they let me edit after several replies!

We are fond of two things, at least, down here in the USA:

1) Shooting each other.

2) Rioting over the results of a trial regarding the events of 1).

Joe(with Liberty and Justice for All)Nation

Well he admitted to homicide. Whether the homicide was a crime and which is the key.



I wonder if that's why they brought murder charges, to try to get him to plea to lesser charges.

The Rodney King case pissed people off all over the country. I think this case is even more powerfully emotive for people.

Obviously there's a lot we don't know, which makes me hesitant to guess. Stuff might come out in the trial that takes things one direction or another.

From what we do know so far, it seems like a range of scenarios are possible. For example:

Scenario A:

Zimmerman is doing his neighborhood watch thing and sees Trayvon walking along looking at houses (trying to figure out which one is his dad's girlfriend's house, they're hard to tell apart). Zimmerman is reminded of the robberies in the area and decides to keep a close eye on this guy. Zimmerman's feeling guilty that the robberies happened on his watch and is determined to not let it happen again.

Zimmerman says something to Trayvon, they have a brief exchange in which Zimmerman becomes more convinced that Trayvon's up to no good and Trayvon becomes more convinced that this guy is creepy, and Trayvon takes off and Zimmerman goes after him.

There is some sort of physical confrontation and Zimmerman feels threatened, and shoots Trayvon.

Not sure what charge that would be, if that's the scenario. Seems like he'd still have to be guilty of something since all of that chasing is contradictory to Stand Your Ground.


Scenario B:

Zimmerman is angry about something maybe, generally loaded for bear. Sees Trayvon doing nothing in particular and gets pissed off. Goes after him with the intent of causing harm. Trayvon does nothing but try to defend himself when physically confronted, and Zimmerman still shoots him.

That would seem to get more towards actual murder.

I think manslaughter is the more likely conviction.

But there really is a lot we don't know.

Personally, I deplore "trial by media". At this point there is no jury, and all the evidence has not been evaluated by a jury. I think that it is a matter of "wait and see".

I really question as to whether Zimmerman can get a fair trial.

Here is some new information:

http://abcnews.go.com/US/george-zimmerman-case-exclusive-photo-shows-bloodied-back/story?id=16177849#.T5FQs9lWBIQ

I think it is going to be really hard to convict him of murder. It doesn’t seem there is enough evidence to convict (at least from what I have seen/heard). But you really never know what a jury will do.

I am not going to speculate whether he is guilty of murder or not – I cannot possibly know. Especially where there has been so much media around it – it is so easy to be swayed.

Yeah - that could be partly why they are charging him as such - leaves room for a lesser plea.

Right, that's a good point. There's what seems most likely, and what can be proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. I do worry about an outcome where those two things diverge a lot.

I'd be interested in knowing your thinking behind it, I see voluntary manslaughter as being the more likely crime that I guess he is guilty of but am interested in what made you think murder.

I agree with you that I don't think he will be convicted of murder.



That makes sense, the murder charge seemed a bit ambitious to me but if that's how it works there really is little downside to it for the prosecutors.

I totally agree about the trial by media point.

And to what set just mentioned, that'd be the media's ultimate victory

No. He'll either go free or get manslaughter.