21
   

The U.S. National Elections For President, The Senate And The House Of Representatives.

 
 
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Sun 3 Jun, 2012 10:16 pm
And yet another out today - this one from PPP...

Scott Walker (R) 50%
Tom Barrett (D) 47%

Quote:
That's down from 50-45 on a PPP poll conducted three weeks ago and it's also down from a 52-45 lead that Walker posted in a Marquette Law poll released last week.

Barrett is actually winning independent voters by a 48-46 margin. The reason he continues to trail overall is that Republicans are more excited about voting in Tuesday's election than Democrats are. Our projected electorate voted for Barack Obama by only 7 points, even though he took the state by 14 in 2008. If the folks who turn out on Tuesday actually matched the 2008 electorate, Barrett would be ahead of Walker by a 50-49 margin. It's cliche but this is a race that really is going to completely come down to turnout.

Walker has a 51/47 approval rating. He's up with men (55-42), whites (52-46), seniors (58-39), and especially voters in the Milwaukee suburbs (70/29).

Barrett has a 46/46 favorability rating, improved from 43/46 on our first poll after the primary. He's winning with women (52/46), minorities (58-36), young voters (53-39), those in Milwaukee County (61-35), and ones in greater Madison (59-37).

This is a close race, closer than it was a couple weeks ago. Scott Walker's still the favorite but Barrett's prospects for an upset look better than they have in a long time.
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jun, 2012 11:13 am
We Ask America cautions 'that this is an extremely difficult election to predict', but publishes their most recent poll showing Walker up by 12 anyway:

Walker: 54.10%
Barrett: 41.57%
Undecided: 4.34%

1570 likely voters
MoE ± 2.5%
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jun, 2012 11:14 am
@Irishk,
Their polling track record is horrible.

Cycloptichorn
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jun, 2012 11:18 am
@Cycloptichorn,
We'll know tomorrow night.
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jun, 2012 12:03 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Outlier? I didn't spend a whole lot of time on it, but a quick Google search shows that in 2010 they had Sean Duffy (R-WI 07) up by 7 and he ended up winning by 8.

But, yes, I'd be surprised if Walker wins by 12 tomorrow. I just hope for the voters' sake, it's definitive one way or the other.
parados
 
  2  
Reply Mon 4 Jun, 2012 12:19 pm
@Irishk,
It won't be.

If Walker wins, it will be because of the money poured into the state by the Corporate interests.
If Barrett wins it will be because of the money poured into the state by the Unions.

One of those 2 outcomes is guaranteed whether someone wins by 1 vote or 2 million votes.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 4 Jun, 2012 01:08 pm
@parados,
Well, aren't you just the cheerful soul today.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 03:22 pm
Headline Of The Day from the lead election official in (liberal) Madison, WI:
"Turnout Could Be 100%+ Of Registered Voters."

And some late Dem spin: in addition to the Walker recall vote, the Rep Lt Gov and 3 Repub state senators face recall. A 4th senator chose not to compete. Even if Walker wins, the Dem party could make significant gains in the state.

Polls close at 8 pm CT.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 05:09 pm
@realjohnboy,
Exit polls seem to be useless time fillers.
CBS reports that voters today indicate support for Obama over Romney 51-46 in Nov.
Obama carried WI over McCain by 14 points in 2008.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 07:06 pm
I'm watching results on Huffington.
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 07:14 pm
@realjohnboy,
Looks like this might be a recount dealie. Seems like it will be VERY close.

realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 07:56 pm
@sozobe,
No, I don't think so. Walker is winning in most counties he won in 2010 by a wider margin.
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 07:58 pm
@realjohnboy,
NBC just called it for Walker. Intrade zoomed up to 99.8% on that news.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 08:16 pm
@realjohnboy,
Yep, the early stuff looked like it would be very close but then changed.

Still not over, but...
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Jun, 2012 09:35 pm
California Propositions (6.3% of precincts reporting):

28 Limits on Legislators’ Terms in Office (change from 14 to 12 yrs)
YES 654,602 66.2%
NO 333,524 33.8%

29 Tax on Cigarettes for Cancer Research
YES 538,811 53.5%
NO 468,289 46.5%
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Jun, 2012 06:24 pm
So, what can we talk about next?
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Jun, 2012 06:33 pm
@realjohnboy,
Well, the term limit thing in California was interesting, in that while they cut it to twelve years, a person can now stay in assembly or senate for all twelve years, thus cutting the whole very large rigamarole of seeking a new office because of past term limitations, and having the benefit (or hindrance) of getting to stay past the learning curve.

A couple of friends were in those offices, and since I think of both of them as very smart and fairly wise, longer could have been good for the community.

Also read - I don't do this often - Willie Brown's blog on that approaching vote; I'm guessing he inspired term limits as an idea, but don't know that.

With state term limits, some people presumably jump from state office to run for national, house or senate.
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Jun, 2012 01:22 pm
New Quinnipiac poll...

Obama leads Romney by 5


In the first survey since he clinched the GOP nomination, Gov. Mitt Romney now trails President Barack Obama 47 - 42 percent in Virginia, a lead that would not be affected if Gov. Bob McDonnell were the Republican running mate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Today's results compare to a 50 - 42 percent Obama lead in a March 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, conducted when former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul were still in the race for the Republican nomination.

With Gov. Bob McDonnell as Romney's running mate, facing Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden, the Democratic ticket wins 48 - 43 percent.

Virginia voters oppose same-sex marriage 49 - 42 percent, but only 25 percent say it is "extremely important" or "very important" in deciding how they will vote for president. President Obama's support for same-sex marriage makes them less likely to vote for him, 24 percent say. Another 14 percent say more likely, while 60 percent say it won't affect their vote.

The gender gap is the key to the president's overall lead as he wins women 51 - 35 percent while men tilt 49 - 44 percent for Romney.

"President Barack Obama remains ahead in Virginia, but he is hearing Gov. Mitt Romney's footsteps. His lead over Romney is built upon a continuing gender gap that favors him - essentially the president stays close among men while he is very strong among women," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "For Romney to take the lead he will need to reverse the gender gap. Often when Republicans win, they use a solid lead among men and narrow their loss among women."

"The gender gap is almost certainly with us for the campaign. The only question will be which side harnesses it for their benefit. Currently, the president is winning that battle," Brown added.

Obama leads 90 - 4 percent among Democrats and 45 - 37 percent among independent voters, while losing Republicans 91 - 6 percent. He also does better among voters under 35 years old, 63 - 23 percent, than he does among those 55 and older, who back Romney 49 - 41 percent. Voters 35 to 54 years old are split 45 - 45 percent.

Virginia voters are divided 48 - 47 percent in their approval of the job Obama is doing, and split 49 - 47 percent on whether he deserves a second term in the Oval Office.

By a 50 - 44 percent margin, Virginia voters have a favorable opinion of Obama and say 80 - 16 percent that he is a likable person.

Romney gets a split 39 - 37 percent favorability, as voters say 61 - 28 percent that he is a likable person.

Virginia voters say 55 - 28 percent that Obama would do a better job than Romney on same-sex marriage.

Because of Romney's opposition to same-sex marriage, 21 percent of voters are more likely to support him while 23 percent are less likely. The issue will not affect their vote, 53 percent say.

Voters are divided on who would do a better job on the economy as 46 percent pick Romney and 44 percent pick Obama.
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Jun, 2012 01:45 pm
Nate Silver's Political Calculus:

Election Forecast: Obama Begins with Tenuous Advantage

The first look at the 2012 FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast has Barack Obama as a very slight favorite to win re-election. But his advantage equates to only a two-point lead in the national popular vote, and the edge could easily swing to Mitt Romney on the basis of further bad economic news.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Thu 7 Jun, 2012 02:13 pm
@Irishk,
VIRGINIA: As I wrote last week the gender gap is likely due to male veterans (0f which VA has a boatload in Northern VA and the Tidewater). Women in VA support Obama 51-35% while men back Romney 49-44%.
Men over 55 support Romney 49-41%.
 

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