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The U.S. National Elections For President, The Senate And The House Of Representatives.

 
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Apr, 2012 07:20 am
@Irishk,
Interesting how no party really lost any percentage points from April to the final. The difference was in the undecideds.
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Apr, 2012 08:28 am
@parados,
Nate has some great commenters at the NYT. They'll generally examine each and every number presented (with a microscope sometimes lol) and parse every word every which way. Many times they'll offer observations, such as yours, and it's always interesting to see the additional info/data they manage to come up with -- which then also receives critical analysis! They take their polling stats (and pollsters) seriously no matter how near or far it is to an election. It's one of my favorite parts of a Nate column.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Apr, 2012 09:29 am
@Irishk,
Anyone know anything about the group called 'Purple strategies?' They seem to be doing swing-state polling, but I've never heard of them before.

Cycloptichorn
djjd62
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Apr, 2012 09:35 am
@Cycloptichorn,
i prefer to get my advice from the New Riders of the Purple Sage myself
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Apr, 2012 10:05 am
@Cycloptichorn,
A few days ago when I was searching for polling data on the House, Google coughed up a site in .pdf form called Purple Strategies. I clicked on it, but didn't spend much time there. Just now I looked at their website, though -- still don't know who all these people are...although, recognize a few of the names and seems to be a mix of R's and D's.
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Apr, 2012 10:07 am
@djjd62,
This far out from the election, they might be as good as any :razz face emoticon thingy:
0 Replies
 
revelette
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Apr, 2012 12:12 pm
We Are Not Stupid

Quote:
Quote:
It’s still about Mitt Romney, and we’re not stupid.

After his primary wins on Tuesday, Mitt Romney delivered a nice speech with some punchy lines, and the pundits jumped and flipped like a troupe from Cirque du Soleil.

But it was all about framing an argument. It was tactical.

I don’t give two cents about tactics at the moment. I prefer to keep my eyes squarely trained on the issues and where the parties and their candidates have either demonstrated or indicated that they plan to take the country.

That reveals their values. That reveals a contrast so stark that no theatrical triumph or failure can disguise or ameliorate it.

Romney is still Romney and he’s still running as the head of a party that has spent the last few years pursuing a profoundly regressive agenda.

Romney tried Tuesday night to frame the debate largely around economic issues, but as the 2010 midterm elections showed, economic issues are something of a Trojan horse for the right.

Let’s just get this out of the way: Times are tough. But most people are smart enough to know that these tough times were long in the making and will be long in the fixing. There are no magic words or silver bullets or emerging bubbles that will quickly and easily return us to a pre-recession, pre-collapse sense of prosperity.

That is because we were all complicit in a lie. The government spent too much (on tax cuts and wars), many banks gambled too much and many people borrowed too much. That was the economy. All that money swirling around lulled us into a false sense of security.

When it all fell apart, an overextended government had to help overextended banks and overextended borrowers. The money stopped swirling. Jobs that flourished during the boom became scarce.

The debt grew and the economy shrank.

The government underestimated the crisis and underfinanced the stimulus package aimed at fixing it. So things got worse before they slowly began to get better. And structural economic issues, like the deflation in the housing market, remain.

In an oversimplified nutshell, that is what happened: a complex mix of poor choices and inadequate responses. Now we have to ask ourselves if things have fundamentally changed forever.

The president tried to help fix a mess that he didn’t make, but the fixing slowly. Is that failure? Romney and the Republicans say yes.

And, if they can keep framing it as a failure, they can push for, and maybe even push through, their brutal budgets, which cut programs that help the poor and struggling and benefit the rich.

And while they push their budgets, they make savage attacks on a broad range of issues: voting rights, women’s rights, gay rights, immigration, etc.

This is the trick: Run on fiscal conservatism; bring social conservatism along for the ride. The Trojan horse platform.

Mitt Romney has made clear during this primary season that he was willing to be neither moderate nor independent — but rather “severely conservative” — in seeking the Republican nomination. He was willing to court the far-right wing of his party and advance its agenda — a frightening fiscal agenda and an even more frightening social agenda.

Yes, this election is about the economy. Every election is to some degree. But it is also about priorities and values and the social direction of this country. This is about the uniquely different visions of our country as presented by Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, and about which man is most likely to be effective and fair.

No number of tactical speeches will make us forget that. We are not stupid.


0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Apr, 2012 04:44 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:
I will defer to Sozobe on OH (18 EV's). Obama won by a 51-47 margin.


Hiya, just seeing this.

I think Obama has a very good chance in Columbus, which is where I live and the area that I'm most familiar with. We have been seeing stimulus money (lots of road work going on, with big signs saying where the money came from), and things are generally picking up around here. Lots of new construction. People getting jobs.

Kasich (Republican Governor) is also deeply unpopular.

I'm not as sure of what's going on in the rest of Ohio. I think Kasich is unpopular everywhere (which helps Obama) but I'm not sure where things are recovery-wise.

Just checked, as of February 8th, Kasich has a 53% approval and 33% disapproval rating. Whew!

In the course of finding that, found that the economy is improving throughout Ohio.

Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Apr, 2012 05:02 pm
@sozobe,
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1727

Quote:

Ohio voters split 42 - 42 percent in their approval of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing, his best score since he was elected more than a year ago.


From March 28. Obama wins v. Romney 49-42 in OH in that poll.

Cycloptichorn
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 26 Apr, 2012 05:04 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Thanks! Yeah, the economy is definitely picking up here, and looks like it's more than just Columbus. That buoys both incumbents (Gov and Prez).
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 30 Apr, 2012 02:09 pm
Minor moment:

Obama is going to kick off the campaign with the first official rallies in Columbus and Virginia this Saturday, May 5th. (Woo! the perks of living in a swing state). I think I might want to go, so was tracking down how to request an interpreter. I've been to about four Obama rallies and the organizers were all very nice about providing an interpreter but the first time especially it was a bit of effort to find the right person to ask, make the request, give her info about local interpreter agencies, etc.

So I was settling into that whole thing again (figuring out who to contact this time around) when it kind of hit me, oh, he's president now! This isn't the little scrappy campaign I was dealing with in October 2007. He's probably gonna have an interpreter without me even having to ask.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 30 Apr, 2012 04:31 pm
@sozobe,
I remember you telling us about that in 2008 and hope that this time will be equally as accessible for you.
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 30 Apr, 2012 05:25 pm
@realjohnboy,
The swing state twins, that's us. Not sure where the Virginia rally will be, do you?

How are you feeling btw? Hope recovery is going well.
0 Replies
 
Irishk
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 May, 2012 09:38 am
@sozobe,
And...the president also signs...



Twenty-six year-old Stephon, who was born deaf, recalls his excitement at meeting President Barack Obama:

"The moment I will never forget was when he looked at me. He gave me a chance to talk to him. It was like he was waiting for me to say something. I took the moment and signed “I am proud of you,” and his response was “Thank u” in sign language back! Oh my gosh! I was like wow! He understood me after I said I was proud of him. It was so amazing…I was just speechless."
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 May, 2012 09:50 am
That is a cute clip.

The Obama camp is running a new ad about Romney's past statements regarding Bin Laden:



Romney and the right-wing machine are freaking out about it. Mostly b/c they have no good response to this issue and it's a rare moment where the Dem is stronger than the GOP on the issue of national security. It's a weak point for Romney - he has made a lot of (conflicting) statements over the years and has little experience or consistency on foreign policy matters.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 May, 2012 10:28 am
Another attack ad from Obama - this time, focusing on Romney's record of shipping jobs overseas (and a jab at the end about him hiding money overseas as well) -



Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 May, 2012 04:52 pm
Cyclo asked about my swing state of Virginia and why I feel that, in fact, it may not be. I was not able to type too well at the time (and I still may have to divide this int0 sections).
> In 2008, Obama won VA 53-46%. It was the 1st time a Dem had carried the state since LBJ in 1964.
> There has been big growth in recent years around the DC suburbs. It would be wrong to say that those folks are Democrats. They may be moderate Repubs or Indys.
> But they have diminished the impact of the conservative voters in the southern and western portions of the state.
> And Obama fared well with Black voters and with young voters.
> He did not do well in the Tidewater region which had a large military vote.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 May, 2012 05:04 pm
@realjohnboy,
PPP has him +8 in VA in a poll released today.

Cycloptichorn

realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 May, 2012 05:07 pm
@realjohnboy,
So on to 2012 in VA.
The trend continues with the growth in the suburbs and the shrinkage in the rural areas. Overall, the economy is doing well or okay.
> If Obama can, as he must do elsewhere, turn out the young and black voters, he does well.
> Immigrants will play a role this year for the 1st time.
> The military vote may not be a factor.
> And it be interesting to watch if there is an anti-Romney factor in southside re his religion vs an anti-Obama factor re his race.

One more...
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 1 May, 2012 05:23 pm
There is an open Senate seat in VA contested by two former Guvs: Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R). Allen is also a former Senator.
They have yet to begin campaigning but when they do the Senate race may drive the Presidential race. Kaine may try to keep his distance from Obama (he was head of the DNC) and Allen may not get much help from Romney after his last race for Senate. Too much of a "good ole boy."
0 Replies
 
 

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