The U.S. National Elections For President, The Senate And The House Of Representatives.

@Cycloptichorn,

Sampling:
Democrat ....................................................... 39%
Republican...................................................... 32%
Independent/Other.............................................29%

When asked for whom they voted in 2008, 10% couldn't remember (that cracked me up for some reason) Smile

1 Reply

@Irishk,

Irishk wrote:

Sampling:
Democrat ....................................................... 39%
Republican...................................................... 32%
Independent/Other.............................................29%

When asked for whom they voted in 2008, 10% couldn't remember (that cracked me up for some reason)

I guess it comes down to the old question: how much effort should they really put into balancing by party ID?

I would also submit that there are MANY GOP voters who don't call themselves Republican anymore, after 8 years of Bush.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

This far out I don't think they put much effort into the balancing. They all like to protect their reputations, though, so as we get closer and closer, I think we can expect to see the sampling tighten up. In the case of this VA poll, it's probably not that important -- even without the 7 pt. Dem advantage, I think Obama would still be ahead. I'm guessing both parties will spend tons of money there, though.

1 Reply

@Irishk,

Similarly, SurveyUSA put out a poll showing Obama +4 in NC yesterday - which would be a great result for him, all things considered. It, like the VA poll, has a higher Dem sample; but what's more interesting is the commentary -

Quote:

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: 1,945 North Carolina adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/26/12 through 04/30/12. Of the adults, 1,636 were registered to vote, and were asked the head-to-head question. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (77% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents unreachable on a home telephone (23% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet, laptop or other electronic device. Cell respondents provide almost all of Obama's advantage. Among home-phone respondents, Obama and Romney are effectively even. Among cell-phone respondents, Obama leads by 15 points. When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, Obama leads by the 4 points here reported. In 2008, Obama carried North Carolina by one-half of one percentage point. In 2004, George Bush carried North Carolina with 56% of the vote.

Age gap?

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Similarly, SurveyUSA put out a poll showing Obama +4 in NC yesterday - which would be a great result for him, all things considered. It, like the VA poll, has a higher Dem sample; but what's more interesting is the commentary -

SurveyUSA oversampled Democrats by a whopping 13 points and women by 7 points.

But...I looked up the 2008 exit poll data for NC (here) and it's possible SUSA modelled this poll based on NC's 2008 turnout.

Same with the PPP Virginia poll -- in 2008 the state split 39D/33R/27I; PPP’s poll from yesterday splits 39D/32R/29I.

Quote:

Age gap?

Possible. Age breakdown is in the 2008 exit data linked above (NYT).

Haven't yet checked 2010 exit polls for each state. Kind of a waste of time this far out?

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Haha, say what you will about Fox News, occasionally, they do tell the unvarnished truth:

Hilarious - and true.

Cycloptichorn

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Rasmussen is 0ut with a new poll in the swing state of Nevada: Obama (52%) vs Romney (44%). This was a poll of LV, while an earlier poll (by PPP dated 4/1) of RV's had similar results.
Obama flipped NV for the Dems in 2008 by a 55-43 margin but NV has been one of the states hardest hit by the recession.
Romney needs to make the pitch that the economy is Obama's weakness. Keep an eye on Nevada to see if that argument is working.

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Indiana Senate Primary Race

Mourdock: 48%
Lugar: 38%

Primary is Tuesday, 5/8. Just a month ago, polling showed Lugar with a commanding lead.

Nate Silver posted a column recently on this race -- he's pretty excited that a Lugar loss could provide a pickup opportunity for Democrats.

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@Irishk,

Yeah, that's the conventional wisdom - Lugar, being such a well-known name, was polling way higher than any potential opponents. Mourdock, not so much.

However; I would bet that whoever the GOP candidate is, will win in Indiana this year, as that state has been solidly red in polling for a long time and will benefit a lot from trickle-down.

Cycloptichorn

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@Irishk,

Interesting. Lugar was under criticism from conservatives for compromising with Democrats.

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@wandeljw,

wandeljw wrote:

Interesting. Lugar was under criticism from conservatives for compromising with Democrats.

He comes from the days before hyper-polarization seized control of the GOP; from when Senators were expected to work with the other side instead of just oppose every single thing they do, all the time.

Sad, really. Can't say Lugar has ever been one of my favorites, but he's far from the worst.

Cycloptichorn

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RCP has finally updated their electoral projections map -

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

They now show Obama with a lock or clean lead in states that equal 253 EVs, Romney with 170 EVs. Additionally, Colorado is looking pretty good for Obama - he has a lead there in polling, but only one polling company has done it, so RCP doesn't count that for him.

If Obama were to win the states that he's currently leading in, and Colorado, he would only need ONE of: FL, OH, VA, NC, or MO (though I doubt he has much of a chance in Missouri this year); or, Iowa and NH.

Romney needs to win basically every single outstanding state to win.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

The shift by RCP came when they moved PA (20 EV"s) and NV (6) from Tossup to Leans Dem.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

Good evening.
I was poring through the employment data today. In the past I wr0te about that on the "Where is the economy headed" thread but now it is all political, yes?
115K net new jobs is not good:
(15K) lost in the public sector
62K gained among white collar
30K gained in retail
19K in health care.
The unemployment rate fell, but only because 340K people left the workforce. Why?

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

At least they revised the last two months upwards by 50k jobs.

The jobs situation hasn't been great, lately, but at least Obama can claim that they've now recovered all the jobs that were lost during his tenure -

http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/apriljobschart-1024x743.jpg

Cycloptichorn

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Farmerman: On another thread you mused about how Romney would respond to "...Obama's latest weakening of the hydrofracking rules."
Please bring us up to date on that.

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@realjohnboy,

This might be a stretch...but perhaps not.
The European Elections And Obama.
They didn't get much play on A2K and I don't understand it all, but the defeat of Sarkozy and the results in Greece puts Merkel's idea of "austerity" in doubt.

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Is This the Most Boring Election Ever?

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"All's Well That Ends Well."

So what do you all make of Obama's gay marriage conversion. He says Biden got "ahead of his skis" a bit; Obama would have preferred to address the issue in September. Biden reportedly apologized.
Could be. I think that Obama was right to dispose of this issue sooner rather then later. It has dominated the news since Sunday and likely will do so for another but will fade away as an issue. The election is all about the economy, after all.
His position may hurt him with blacks and Hispanics in the short-term but not, probably, in the long-haul. And it will force Romney to explain his shifting position.
As an aside, I feel empathy for Obama for saying that the use of "gay marriage" should be avoided. I wrote on A2K a few years ago that the use of the word "marriage" should be eschewed by the government and the gay rights movement when discussing legal rights. It might have gotten religion out of the discussion. "Gay union" worked for me.
Thank you for reading along. Good evening.

1 Reply

@realjohnboy,

Romney has now backed a Federal law or Constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage on. He spoke about it today to Fox News.

I think that was a big mistake on his part. Not just because I disagree with his position, but because - once again - he is trailing Obama on topics, acting in a reactionary fashion. What could have been a one-week story (after all, Obama's supporting gay marriage means NOTHING in terms of actual policy) will now be a major campaign issue. And I just don't see it being a winner for Romney; at the very least, it distracts from discussions about the economy, again!

It's amazing how Obama's crew has been able to keep the discussion about social issues with such skill.

Romney is really going to have to watch out or he'll tie himself in knots on the issue as well. Today, he said:

Quote:

“I believe that marriage has been defined the same way for literally thousands of years by virtually every civilization in history and that marriage is by its definition a relationship between a man and woman."

That's pretty funny, because Romney's own ancestors - his grandparents and their parents - believed so strongly that marriage was actually between one man and MANY women, they fled the nation in order to protect their lifestyle. Romney's religion is inextricably linked with the idea that marriage is not the way he described it, and that wasn't 'thousands' of years ago, either.

He's so full of ****.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

The U.S. National Elections For President, The Senate And The House Of Representatives.

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